ATL: ELSA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14945
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#41 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:48 pm

As mentioned, 18z Euro develops 97L into a TS, but keeps it weak through the Windward Islands.

Image
Image
Image
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4178
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#42 Postby toad strangler » Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:58 pm

NDG wrote:As mentioned, 18z Euro develops 97L into a TS, but keeps it weak through the Windward Islands.


Last year this would be 1020 HP on the Euro :sun:
6 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14945
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#43 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 29, 2021 9:22 pm

Image
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9627
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#44 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:01 pm

Three will an opportunity for 97L to eventually recurve northward. Whether that’s in the GOM,Florida or even the Bahamas is anyone’s guess.

Image
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3073
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#45 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:48 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/DrHyBUu.jpg

18z...



I mean is it October already? Look at those paths.
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#46 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:56 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/DrHyBUu.jpg

18z...



I mean is it October already? Look at those paths.

The early part of this season is looking just as favorable as last year so far. Dare I say that the MDR looks better.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3438
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#47 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:04 pm

Image
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1709
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#48 Postby sma10 » Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:29 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/DrHyBUu.jpg

18z...



I mean is it October already? Look at those paths.

The early part of this season is looking just as favorable as last year so far. Dare I say that the MDR looks better.


Yes was wondering this myself. Is it possible that this season becomes a mashup between 2017 and 2020?
3 likes   
Top
USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2422
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#49 Postby USTropics » Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:15 am

This is what we call model consensus, in 48 hours chances of an MDR storm are looking very likely:

GFS
Image

ECMWF
Image

CMC
Image

UKMET
Image

ICON
Image

NAVGEM
Image

HWRF
Image

HMON
Image

JMA
Image

ARPEGE
Image

GDAPS
Image
10 likes   
Top
USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2422
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#50 Postby USTropics » Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:20 am

00z GFS ensembles:
Image
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1793
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#51 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:12 am

HWRF 00z even gets it to a cat 3 for a short amount of time before landfall in Haiti and later Cuba. Just for timeline comparisons this HWRF run reaches hurricane status on Friday (+54 hours).

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8061
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#52 Postby aspen » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:25 am

06z GFS is essentially just a weaker Dennis.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9627
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#53 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:38 am

Not liking the trend i am seeing in the models this morning. Thankfully it’s not August

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4672
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#54 Postby ronjon » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:38 am

aspen wrote:06z GFS is essentially just a weaker Dennis.


Naw actually comes in east of Dennis near Cedar Key/St Marks area at 977 mb after ravaging the Florida west coast. Its more than a week away so purely entertainment purposes now.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9627
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#55 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:46 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9874
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#56 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:08 am

SFLcane wrote:Not liking the trend i am seeing in the models this morning. Thankfully it’s not August

https://i.imgur.com/YkuhToC.gif


Crazy, it appears upper level conditions are real good and if 97L were to avoid all the land interaction it likely makes a run at Cat 2-3 hurricane... Are we sure it's June?
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
Stormybajan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Joined: Thu May 20, 2021 3:21 pm
Location: Windward Islands

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#57 Postby Stormybajan » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:13 am

SFLcane wrote:Not liking the trend i am seeing in the models this morning. Thankfully it’s not August

https://i.imgur.com/YkuhToC.gif


Who told 97L it was allowed a tiny friend at the end there...
0 likes   
Sad West Indies and Manchester United fan ⚽️
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9627
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#58 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:45 am

Yep, that’s exactly what’s going to happen. :lol: :roll:

Image
7 likes   
Top
hurricane2025
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 163
Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:36 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#59 Postby hurricane2025 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 7:02 am

SFLcane wrote:Not liking the trend i am seeing in the models this morning. Thankfully it’s not August

https://i.imgur.com/YkuhToC.gif



Still faces a lot of hurdles down the road but yeah if it was august or sept would be bad
0 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3950
Age: 27
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#60 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jun 30, 2021 7:14 am

It’s going to struggle if it landfalls in the Islands like the ensembles are showing.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests