EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[InfernoFlameCat]

I hope the Atlantic produces a storm very similar in structure to Felicia (one that is either a fish or doesn’t impact land until it’s far weaker) so recon can investigate it and give us a better idea as to what Felicia itself was like. How much has comparative analysis between storms been used in post-season intensity analysis of one storm?

Too bad we missed recon with Isabel at the opportune moment.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 171844
TCSENP

A. 06E (FELICIA)

B. 17/1730Z

C. 14.7N

D. 124.8W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN A
DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[cycloneye]

Remains at 125kts.

06E FELICIA 210717 1800 14.7N 124.9W EPAC 125 947

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FELICIA EP062021 07/17/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 125 120 114 108 101 89 78 65 55 45 36 29 26 25 24 26 28
V (KT) LAND 125 120 114 108 101 89 78 65 55 45 36 29 26 25 24 26 28
V (KT) LGEM 125 118 109 101 94 82 72 63 54 46 40 34 29 24 21 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 6 24 30 30 30 32 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -2 0 4 5 5 2 3 0 -6 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 327 357 29 15 35 123 334 272 277 273 312 321 307 300 277 N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.2 25.4 25.2 24.8 25.2 25.5 26.6 26.2 25.9 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 128 128 126 124 126 118 116 112 116 120 131 127 124 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 47 46 47 48 48 50 48 48 44 40 38 39 44 48 50 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 15 14 13 12 10 8 7 7 5 5 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 -6 -10 -17 -18 -11 0 4 11 13 21 20 17 10 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -25 -20 -30 -18 -18 1 -37 -65 -17 -35 -50 -19 -11 -7 -15 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 -5 -3 -2 -2 2 1 1 5 1 2 -1 0 0 3 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1731 1789 1849 1905 1953 2075 2232 2143 1886 1630 1382 1139 936 754 606 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.1 15.9 15.5 15.2 14.9 14.4 13.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.7 126.6 127.6 128.5 130.5 132.6 134.9 137.5 140.1 142.7 145.5 148.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -25. -34. -45. -54. -62. -69. -73. -74. -75. -77. -80. -84.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 9. 11. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. 4. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -24. -36. -47. -60. -70. -80. -89. -96. -99.-100.-101. -99. -97.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.7 124.9

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/17/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 904.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.5% 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/17/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Going for a W ring.

[InfernoFlameCat]

She is holding her intensity. Strange little feature to its south getting sucked in. I believe this is a Fujiwhara effect to some sort with a llc getting wrapped around into the dominant system(Felicia).

[Kingarabian]

The true test of Felicias character is how she does over cooler waters. The current conditions have been pretty easy so far.

[MarioProtVI]

Gonna guess this peaked at 12-15z at 135 kt. Don’t think it got to C5 even with the biased Dvorak towards smaller systems.

[Yellow Evan]

The true test of Felicias character is how she does over cooler waters. The current conditions have been pretty easy so far.

It’s been over sub-28C waters for about 18 hours and has passed the 27C isotherm. It’s quite remarkable how it’s sustained and even expanded it’s convection.

[Kingarabian]

The true test of Felicias character is how she does over cooler waters. The current conditions have been pretty easy so far.

It’s been over sub-28C waters for about 18 hours and has passed the 27C isotherm. It’s quite remarkable how it’s sustained and even expanded it’s convection.

Yeah once it reaches 25C it will be interesting to see if it can maintain anything close to major hurricane status. In theory it should, because surviving over cool SST's are part of the annular hurricane package. Probably when shear kicks in after 72 hours that will be it.

[aspen]

I remember someone once used 1-minute visible satellite loops of Michael and Dorian to compare their intensities by measuring the rotation of eyewall clouds. Maybe doing the same for Felicia right now and comparing it to them could yield a decent intensity estimate? 1-minute GOES-17 meso imagery is up on Tropical Tidbits.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Per GFS SHIPS, this has about almost 4 days of ideal shear conditions before the SW shear kicks in.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

Felicia has remained an impressive hurricane this morning. The
hurricane's clear eye is still surrounded by a ring of very cold
cloud tops and recent microwave overpasses show that the tiny
cyclone continues to exhibit a very symmetric convective inner-core
structure. The intensity estimate is still 125 kt, based on the
latest TAFB Dvorak fix. Due to the small size of the hurricane and
the lack of ground truth so far from land, it is worth mentioning
that the uncertainty in that estimate is somewhat higher than usual.

Virtually no change was made to the NHC track, intensity, or size
forecasts, though the uncertainty in the intensity forecast remains
high. All of the available intensity guidance continues to insist
that at least gradual weakening will begin soon. Although that
hasn't panned out yet, cooler SSTs ahead of Felicia could still
contribute to at least a little weakening later today and Sunday. A
faster rate of weakening is expected by around 48 h as the small
cyclone moves over colder-yet waters and possibly encounters some
moderate wind shear. There is poor agreement among the various
global and regional models how soon the shear will affect Felicia.
Once it does, the hurricane will likely decline rapidly due to the
very small size of its inner core. By 72 h, every typically
reliable intensity model shows Felicia below hurricane strength.
The official intensity forecast remains on the very high side of
the guidance, closest to the interpolated GFS forecast for the
first 3 days, and is near the intensity consensus after that.

Felicia has turned west-northwestward, with a forward speed of
around 7 kt. In contrast to the intensity forecast, confidence in
the track forecast is very high. A turn back toward the west is
anticipated by late Sunday as a ridge to the north of Felicia builds
slightly. Felicia should then turn west-southwestward early next
week as it comes under the influence of an extensive deep-layer
ridge centered over the central Pacific. The spread in the track
guidance is low, and the NHC track forecast is very similar to the
various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 14.9N 125.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 15.3N 126.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.1N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 16.0N 134.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 15.6N 137.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 14.7N 142.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 14.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Kingarabian]

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

Felicia has remained an impressive hurricane this morning. The
hurricane's clear eye is still surrounded by a ring of very cold
cloud tops and recent microwave overpasses show that the tiny
cyclone continues to exhibit a very symmetric convective inner-core
structure. The intensity estimate is still 125 kt, based on the
latest TAFB Dvorak fix. Due to the small size of the hurricane and
the lack of ground truth so far from land, it is worth mentioning
that the uncertainty in that estimate is somewhat higher than usual.

Virtually no change was made to the NHC track, intensity, or size
forecasts, though the uncertainty in the intensity forecast remains
high. All of the available intensity guidance continues to insist
that at least gradual weakening will begin soon. Although that
hasn't panned out yet, cooler SSTs ahead of Felicia could still
contribute to at least a little weakening later today and Sunday. A
faster rate of weakening is expected by around 48 h as the small
cyclone moves over colder-yet waters and possibly encounters some
moderate wind shear. There is poor agreement among the various
global and regional models how soon the shear will affect Felicia.
Once it does, the hurricane will likely decline rapidly due to the
very small size of its inner core. By 72 h, every typically
reliable intensity model shows Felicia below hurricane strength.
The official intensity forecast remains on the very high side of
the guidance, closest to the interpolated GFS forecast for the
first 3 days, and is near the intensity consensus after that.

Felicia has turned west-northwestward, with a forward speed of
around 7 kt. In contrast to the intensity forecast, confidence in
the track forecast is very high. A turn back toward the west is
anticipated by late Sunday as a ridge to the north of Felicia builds
slightly. Felicia should then turn west-southwestward early next
week as it comes under the influence of an extensive deep-layer
ridge centered over the central Pacific. The spread in the track
guidance is low, and the NHC track forecast is very similar to the
various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 14.9N 125.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 15.3N 126.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.1N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 16.0N 134.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 15.6N 137.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 14.7N 142.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 14.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Hmmm. To me this is a hint that the NHC is conflicted in intensity and that it could be stronger. Larger TC's with a persistent WMG eye and a white ring with the proper CDO thickness usually are near 7.0.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian ,candidate for post season report upgrade?

[Yellow Evan]

Kingarabian ,candidate for post season report upgrade?

It’s hard to justify more than 125-130 based on satellite intensity estimates. TAFB is the only to go to T6.5, and ADT and SAB peaked lower.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian ,candidate for post season report upgrade?

They're going to have to get together and take a real close look. Probably line up a bunch of annular hurricanes and scrutinize their cloud patterns to see if Felicia warrants a higher estimate. If they find out it's stronger than analyzed, they maybe have to adjust the entire Dvorak technique in general to help assess smaller systems better. At the very least, they're going to have to fix ADT.

[SconnieCane]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FELICIA EP062021 07/17/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 125 120 114 108 101 89 78 65 55 45 36 29 26 25 24 26 28
V (KT) LAND 125 120 114 108 101 89 78 65 55 45 36 29 26 25 24 26 28
V (KT) LGEM 125 118 109 101 94 82 72 63 54 46 40 34 29 24 21 N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 6 24 30 30 30 32 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -2 0 4 5 5 2 3 0 -6 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 327 357 29 15 35 123 334 272 277 273 312 321 307 300 277 N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.2 25.4 25.2 24.8 25.2 25.5 26.6 26.2 25.9 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 128 128 126 124 126 118 116 112 116 120 131 127 124 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 47 46 47 48 48 50 48 48 44 40 38 39 44 48 50 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 15 14 13 12 10 8 7 7 5 5 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 -6 -10 -17 -18 -11 0 4 11 13 21 20 17 10 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -25 -20 -30 -18 -18 1 -37 -65 -17 -35 -50 -19 -11 -7 -15 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 -5 -3 -2 -2 2 1 1 5 1 2 -1 0 0 3 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1731 1789 1849 1905 1953 2075 2232 2143 1886 1630 1382 1139 936 754 606 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.1 15.9 15.5 15.2 14.9 14.4 13.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.7 126.6 127.6 128.5 130.5 132.6 134.9 137.5 140.1 142.7 145.5 148.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -25. -34. -45. -54. -62. -69. -73. -74. -75. -77. -80. -84.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 9. 11. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. 4. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -24. -36. -47. -60. -70. -80. -89. -96. -99.-100.-101. -99. -97.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.7 124.9

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/17/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 904.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.5% 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/17/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

Storm not annular? But it is.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

That's just the SHIPS analysis which is on and off.

However most recently, it has begun to deviate away from the classic annular look with banding developing to the W/NW of the system.