WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[JW-_-]

Early Visible loop
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/ezgif-6-ceb0d630f4ee.gif

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FjQkQkzS8zI

Worth looking @

[1900hurricane]

Give me like 130 kt for right now (~04Z) I think. That's a little lower than most of the objective intensity aids like SATCON and it's members (AMSU, SSMIS), and even ADT, but a little closer to subjective dvorak. This think is releasing latent heat like no one's business right now, which the MW estimates in particular are picking up and going to town with, but I don't think we're quite there structurally yet. With that said, each MW pass I see is just better and better, and even subjective dvorak estimates might be closing in on the 7.0 number soon.

[1900hurricane]

As far as track is concerned, I think Surigae will probably stay off the Philippines, but that's not something I say with great confidence, especially considering the spread in timing/speed/angle of the recurve. I've been playing with a personal simple model consensus beginning late last year, and here's what I have for the 00Z suite. Lots of slow motion with big model spread. Definitely take this with a grain of salt, I can almost guarantee the official forecasts will verify better in terms of track.

[JW-_-]

Yeah EC 00z will be interesting. Have to wonder if that ridge to the northwest is getting pumped up now. Or it's going to fade some and allow an even more west track.

[euro6208]

Mmm


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 922.8mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.2 7.2

[mrbagyo]

best it has looked so far

[Hayabusa]

2021APR17 051000 7.0 922.8 140.0 7.0 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 3.68 -81.76 EYE 17 IR 69.8 11.30 -130.24 ARCHER HIM-8 18.0

[Meow]

JMA CI: 6.5 | DT: 6.5 | MET: 6.0 | PT: 6.5 | FT: 6.5

[Hayabusa]

A raw 7.9 in April almost 8.0

2021APR17 054000 7.2 916.7 146.0 7.2 7.7 7.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.69 -84.01 EYE 18 IR 97.0 11.36 -130.19 ARCHER HIM-8 18.1

[Highteeld]

What in the world. This isn't supposed to happen in April


Not at the DMAX yet either.

[Highteeld]

Right in the OHC bullseye

[mrbagyo]

Let's Go!!!!

[Cunxi Huang]

Missing person returning to forum. Here's my first post.

 https://twitter.com/CharlieFurWx/status/1383303929069404163

[Highteeld]

[Highteeld]

would guess this is pushing 150 knots right now and rising

[Highteeld]

02W SURIGAE 210417 0600 11.3N 130.2E WPAC 130 925

^bet that gets a revision in post-season analysis

[Hayabusa]

WOW! First raw T8.0 typhoon since Goni and it happened on April

2021APR17 061000 7.3 913.5 149.0 7.3 7.8 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.61 -84.24 EYE 20 IR 97.0 11.35 -130.10 ARCHER HIM-8 18.1

[Meow]

<Analysis at 15 JST, 2021/04/17>
Intensity/Category Very Strong Typhoon
Center Position 11.4N 130.2E
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h (12kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50m/s (100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s (140kt)
≥ 50-kt wind area S 220km (120NM) N 185km (100NM)
≥ 30-kt wind area ALL 390km (210NM)

[mrbagyo]

WOW! First raw T8.0 typhoon since Goni and it happened on April

2021APR17 061000 7.3 913.5 149.0 7.3 7.8 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.61 -84.24 EYE 20 IR 97.0 11.35 -130.10 ARCHER HIM-8 18.1

That's an impressive temp delta of 100.85 and we're still many hours away from DMAX (the eye ain't even +20 yet)

[Hayabusa]

WOW! First raw T8.0 typhoon since Goni and it happened on April

2021APR17 061000 7.3 913.5 149.0 7.3 7.8 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.61 -84.24 EYE 20 IR 97.0 11.35 -130.10 ARCHER HIM-8 18.1

That's an impressive temp delta of 100.85 and we're still many hours away from DMAX (the eye ain't even +20 yet)

It's unbelievable, we're in midday and already getting such raw values, Goni only achieved that during in the late night-dawn hours

2020OCT31 174000 7.7 902.5 161.0 7.7 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.58 -82.97 EYE 16 IR 54.0 13.79 -125.02 ARCHER HIM-8 24.3
2020OCT31 181000 7.7 902.5 161.0 7.7 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 12.52 -82.80 EYE 17 IR 54.0 13.75 -124.88 ARCHER HIM-8 24.4
2020OCT31 184000 7.8 899.3 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.72 -82.75 EYE 17 IR 54.0 13.71 -124.80 ARCHER HIM-8 24.4
2020OCT31 190000 7.8 897.3 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.88 -82.73 EYE 17 IR 54.0 13.70 -124.72 ARCHER HIM-8 24.5
2020OCT31 193000 7.8 897.3 164.0 7.8 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.15 -82.69 EYE 17 IR 54.0 13.71 -124.61 ARCHER HIM-8 24.6
2020OCT31 200000 7.8 897.3 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.48 -82.68 EYE 16 IR 54.0 13.68 -124.46 ARCHER HIM-8 24.7