ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

So the new advisory has Elsa strengthening back from a TD to a TS while still inland (over NC/VA)

Is there precedent for that in that region? This isn’t a Florida/Everglades dynamic.

The precedent is that the Euro predicted the same for Claudette last month and winds were below 20 kts over land. It's not uncommon for depressions to regain some strength as they accelerate out to sea off the east coast. Generally, this doesn't happen until the center is over the water, though. Models were wrong with Claudette.

[Evil Jeremy]

So the new advisory has Elsa strengthening back from a TD to a TS while still inland (over NC/VA)

Is there precedent for that in that region? This isn’t a Florida/Everglades dynamic.

Yes, Claudette did exactly this a few days ago.

Oof, I’ve been slipping. Thanks!

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m not sure how, and doubt this any semblance of an accurate reflection of the surface, but radar is picking up velocities over 100mph now…

[Jr0d]

NHC still forecasting strengthening today, probably because the Euro was indicating strengthening. Clearly, they don't want the public to lower their guard in case it does strengthen. I have 40-45 kts in my forecast and no strengthening. My forecasts aren't seen by the public, though.

Sustained winds of 46 kts reported at Sand Key. Doppler shows stronger wind further west near the core.

[wxman57]

I still see the LLC west of the convection, near the tip of the red arrow:

[InfernoFlameCat]

I’m not sure how, and doubt this any semblance of an accurate reflection of the surface, but radar is picking up velocities over 100mph now…

That’s a meso vortex, maybe even a meso cyclone because it’s very small. Could produce a waterspout there . However it’s not indicative of Elsa’s strength.

[ColdMiser123]

I’m not sure how, and doubt this any semblance of an accurate reflection of the surface, but radar is picking up velocities over 100mph now…

I'm seeing that as well. Probably more of a mesoscale feature not representative of the overall intensity, but there are quite a few significant bin velocity values now showing up.

[wxman57]

Those radar velocities aren't matching any observations at the surface. You wouldn't know a TS was in the SE Gulf according to observations (at least the ones plotted here).

[psyclone]

If you must be under the gun...make sure it's a pea shooter!

[Aric Dunn]

I’m not sure how, and doubt this any semblance of an accurate reflection of the surface, but radar is picking up velocities over 100mph now…

I'm seeing that as well. Probably more of a mesoscale feature not representative of the overall intensity, but there are quite a few significant bin velocity values now showing up.

That would be reasonable... if the area of hurricane force ( after any reductions) was not growing in size... quadrupled in size..

[ColdMiser123]

I’m not sure how, and doubt this any semblance of an accurate reflection of the surface, but radar is picking up velocities over 100mph now…

I'm seeing that as well. Probably more of a mesoscale feature not representative of the overall intensity, but there are quite a few significant bin velocity values now showing up.

That would be reasonable... if the area of hurricane force ( after any reductions) was not growing in size... quadrupled in size..

The area of >110 mph was almost certainly mesoscale related, and has already dissipated on the most recent scans. Agree with you though that the broad area of 80-90 mph bin velocities are related more with the circulation itself.

[eastcoastFL]

They are right about in the radius of max winds. Unfortunately, they nor we can separate the TS winds from the center in our graphics. There is probably a small band of TS wind east of the center in that heavy squall area. Looks like max winds are about 40 kts, though one could argue that they could be as high as 45 kts somewhere in that squall.

The only sustained winds I’ve seen so far over 40kts is sand key. They’ve been reporting for over an hour now sustained 40+kt winds

What is Sand Key's ICAO? (the 3-letter station identifier)

SANF1

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=SANF1

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m not sure how, and doubt this any semblance of an accurate reflection of the surface, but radar is picking up velocities over 100mph now…

I'm seeing that as well. Probably more of a mesoscale feature not representative of the overall intensity, but there are quite a few significant bin velocity values now showing up.

Reminds me of the mesovorts we tend to see in the eyewalls of landfalling hurricanes, but this is much too weak for that.

That said, while the extreme values are clearly not representative, there is a huge swath of 70+mph bins

[eastcoastFL]

NHC still forecasting strengthening today, probably because the Euro was indicating strengthening. Clearly, they don't want the public to lower their guard in case it does strengthen. I have 40-45 kts in my forecast and no strengthening. My forecasts aren't seen by the public, though.

So are they for private companies?

[NDG]

Good news, AF recon finally took off.

URNT15 KNHC 061516
AF302 1305A ELSA HDOB 02 20210706
150700 3026N 08854W 9836 00272 0149 +221 +166 057002 007 /// /// 03
150730 3027N 08853W 9498 00577 0148 +203 +152 188006 007 /// /// 03
150800 3028N 08852W 9187 00866 0150 +193 +139 198008 009 /// /// 03
150830 3026N 08851W 8866 01179 0153 +176 +130 212010 011 /// /// 03
150900 3025N 08851W 8418 01614 0146 +154 +124 215010 010 /// /// 03
150930 3024N 08852W 8109 01931 0143 +138 +112 221009 011 /// /// 03
151000 3022N 08853W 7773 02291 0147 +115 +103 219005 009 /// /// 03
151030 3021N 08854W 7492 02601 0136 +111 +091 228003 006 /// /// 03
151100 3020N 08855W 7232 02900 0131 +097 +086 163001 003 /// /// 03
151130 3018N 08857W 7016 03158 0137 +083 +078 068005 005 /// /// 05
151200 3017N 08858W 6977 03214 0153 +078 +072 039005 006 /// /// 05
151230 3015N 08859W 6986 03204 0156 +079 +066 006005 006 /// /// 03
151300 3013N 08901W 6993 03201 0164 +073 +062 328002 005 /// /// 03
151330 3011N 08902W 6854 03341 0127 +073 +059 017003 005 /// /// 03
151400 3009N 08904W 6559 03705 //// +051 //// 298004 005 /// /// 05
151430 3007N 08905W 6336 03990 //// +038 //// 298006 007 /// /// 05
151500 3005N 08906W 6121 04266 //// +020 //// 261006 008 /// /// 05
151530 3004N 08905W 5925 04535 //// +007 //// 253006 008 /// /// 05
151600 3002N 08903W 5762 04761 //// -001 //// 225004 004 /// /// 05
151630 3000N 08902W 5603 04984 //// -016 //// 239003 004 /// /// 05
$$
;

[eastcoastFL]

St Lucie county with the most power outages so far 1400. I think a small tornado may have come through because we had hail here about an hour ago in one of the storms that passed us.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa building up an impressive eye wall. Too bad it’s tilted(really a good thing just I like beautiful Eyewalls.)

[Vdogg]

So the new advisory has Elsa strengthening back from a TD to a TS while still inland (over NC/VA)

Is there precedent for that in that region? This isn’t a Florida/Everglades dynamic.

Yes. We have a lot of swamp land in Eastern NC and SeVA. That and we're close to the ocean. It's happened.

[psyclone]

I'm estimating sustained winds nearing 8mph. If i had a hat, I wouldn't need to hold onto it

[eastcoastFL]