ATL: FRED - Models

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chaser1
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#361 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 4:55 pm

Spacecoast wrote:Kitchen sink Spaghetti:
Euro ensembles + GFS ensembles + Operational+official
(White is consensus):

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Ks5VwJV/ecmdf.jpg [/url]


RAINBOW MODEL PASTA
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#362 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 4:56 pm

Strung out mess
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#363 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:04 pm

Cuba again
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#364 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:05 pm

South Florida shear shield in full-effect. Yikes that is hostile:

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#365 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:09 pm

18z GFS doing it's best to poof PTC6 over Cuba
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#366 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:13 pm

toad strangler wrote:18z GFS doing it's best to poof PTC6 over Cuba


Toss this run, init was hundreds of miles too far south if that radar MLC is the real deal.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#367 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:15 pm

tolakram wrote:
toad strangler wrote:18z GFS doing it's best to poof PTC6 over Cuba


Toss this run, init was hundreds of miles too far south if that radar MLC is the real deal.

Yeah but now all of the sudden unfavorable conditions return. Look how the ULL suddenly strengthens
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#368 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:16 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
tolakram wrote:
toad strangler wrote:18z GFS doing it's best to poof PTC6 over Cuba


Toss this run, init was hundreds of miles too far south if that radar MLC is the real deal.

Yeah but now all of the sudden unfavorable conditions return. Look how the ULL suddenly strengthens


Back and forth, won't know for a few days.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#369 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:18 pm

HWRF was closest to the apparent current position.

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#370 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Aug 10, 2021 5:28 pm

Even on that run the GFS revives Fred and slings a weak storm toward the southern Florida peninsula. The signals are loud and clear to me based on multiple successive model runs - in my opinion, whatever this is is coming to Florida.

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#371 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:21 pm

983mb into SE FL on HWRF. Takes it over DR but it's able to recover
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#372 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:34 pm

18z Euro…

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#373 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:35 pm



Awww look at that little guy. It's cute.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#374 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:38 pm


Hello 95L, coming to join the party I see.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#375 Postby Stormybajan » Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:40 pm


Its giving me...Irma and Jose vibes :lol: :lol: younger sibling following the bigger one
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#376 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:44 pm

Stormybajan wrote:

Its giving me...Irma and Jose vibes :lol: :lol: younger sibling following the bigger one


Mine sweeper out in front.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#377 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:54 pm

toad strangler wrote:


Awww look at that little guy. It's cute.
Unless you live in key largo
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#378 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:57 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
toad strangler wrote:


Awww look at that little guy. It's cute.
Unless you live in key largo


Nah verbatim that's weak sauce and for a very short duration.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#379 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:02 pm

18Z HWRF. Bad init location but still finds some water to blow up over.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#380 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:11 pm

18Z Euro

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