ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ObsessedMiami]

Torrential rain here in Southern Miami Dade for the last half hour.

[AutoPenalti]

Pretty sunny here in Coconut Creek, no wind either.

[Cat5James]

Sunny and calm in plantation but radar says the rain is coming. Also got a severe thunderstorm warning for both Miami and Broward.

[eastcoastFL]

Cloudy on the treasure coast.

[eastcoastFL]

[ZipWx]

Hi, all. I've lurked and learned here since the old Lowes Palm Beach days.

Funny how such an upside down crazy storm (2021!) got me back online and live.

I will add this, perhaps someone remembers Trop Storm Faye, August, 2008, I think. That storm, just off Florida east coast, taught me more than I ever wanted to know about dualing centers at every "level" of analysis.

I just watched the first squall pair, followed by the mother, roll into Miami Beach by Gov. Cut. Like a few other old timers just posted, I sure feel the approach of low pressure systems in my bones, specifcally back bones. Same pattern each time: peak pain 18 hours before arrival, then all better when storm comes.

Storm2K = the BEST

[floridasun78]

now rain start by miami airport we have warring issue for this storm

[Michele B]

While I don't mean to make fun of or criticize anybody in particular, recently (especially on Twitter) I noticed how some individuals pointed out that because Elsa was struggling that meant this season was not going to be active at all. And I was like, what?! So you think that one storm's struggle would tell the entire story, especially when that one storm formed in one of the rarest parts of the season (let alone location-wise as well, with it surviving in the "graveyard" like some ghoul?)

The twitter like all social media is full of mis and disinformation, buyer beware. Elsa's performance is a pre-cursor to nothing.

You nailed it. People on Twitter can say whatever they want regardless of if they have any credentials or not. It’s full of misinformation.

HA!! Not just Twitter. I had a discussion with a friend this morning as to why what “the guy on radio” was saying this morning was so very wrong.

Not sure if he actually implied what she interpreted or if it was just ignorance on her part.

She said, and I quote, “Well, the guy on the radio all the way home kept saying it was moving NW, so it was going to go over the high mountains of Cuba and then go into the Gulf, and miss us entirely. “

There was so much wrong I didn’t even know how to correct it.

I TRIED to explain that it was going. W, and PARALLEL to Cuba, and that yes, the center would probably miss us (near Pt Charlotte), but that was only the center (can’t even call it an eye).

I TRIED to explain the worst weather was to the east of the CoC, but she’s now convinced it’s”missing us.”

Oh well. Like I said. Between misinformation and half-truth, many people are going to wonder where all the crappy weather is coming from!!!

No thanks to that radio announcer- who probably understands as much of it as my friend does!

[ObsessedMiami]

Tornado Warning for Northern Miami Dade

[jlauderdal]

Tornado Warning for Northern Miami Dade

Just another rainy day in South Florida

The outflow boundary off the main complex is about to hit me

There was a map posted earlier of an inch for the Southeast Coast, that has no chance of verifying at this point and we are just starting.

Flood Advisory issued July 05 at 3:​32​PM EDT until July 08 at 8:​00​PM EDT by NWS Miami

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a * Flood Advisory for...
Northern Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...
* Until 630 PM EDT.
* At 332 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated torrential rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen, with additional heavy rain approaching the area.

[Nuno]

Heavy lightning north of me here in the Gables, it is coming down hard.

[Vdogg]

This storm is starting to look a bit less sloppy on visible. Landfall and it’s the best it’s looked in a day.

[eastcoastFL]

The twitter like all social media is full of mis and disinformation, buyer beware. Elsa's performance is a pre-cursor to nothing.

You nailed it. People on Twitter can say whatever they want regardless of if they have any credentials or not. It’s full of misinformation.

HA!! Not just Twitter. I had a discussion with a friend this morning as to why what “the guy on radio” was saying this morning was so very wrong.

Not sure if he actually implied what she interpreted or if it was just ignorance on her part.

She said, and I quote, “Well, the guy on the radio all the way home kept saying it was moving NW, so it was going to go over the high mountains of Cuba and then go into the Gulf, and miss us entirely. “

There was so much wrong I didn’t even know how to correct it.

I TRIED to explain that it was going. W, and PARALLEL to Cuba, and that yes, the center would probably miss us (near Pt Charlotte), but that was only the center (can’t even call it an eye).

I TRIED to explain the worst weather was to the east of the CoC, but she’s now convinced it’s”missing us.”

Oh well. Like I said. Between misinformation and half-truth, many people are going to wonder where all the crappy weather is coming from!!!

No thanks to that radio announcer- who probably understands as much of it as my friend does!

I think every storm I have a debate with my FIL about what’s actually happening based on something he heard from “some guy”… I just try to say there’s one real source and that’s the NHC. Everyone else just reports on what the NHC is saying already or they are not providing official info.

[eastcoastFL]

[eastcoastFL]

Tornado Warning for Northern Miami Dade

Just another rainy day in South Florida

The outflow boundary off the main complex is about to hit me

There was a map posted earlier of an inch for the Southeast Coast, that has no chance of verifying at this point and we are just starting.

Flood Advisory issued July 05 at 3:​32​PM EDT until July 08 at 8:​00​PM EDT by NWS Miami

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a * Flood Advisory for...
Northern Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...
* Until 630 PM EDT.
* At 332 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated torrential rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen, with additional heavy rain approaching the area.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

* At 354 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a strong thunderstorm over Doral, or near Hialeah, moving
northwest at 30 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
storm.

* Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Miramar, Miami Beach, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne,
South Miami, Surfside, Miami Gardens, Virginia Key, Kendall,
Hallandale, The Redland, North Miami, Doral, North Miami Beach,
Aventura, Miami Lakes, Hialeah Gardens and Sunny Isles Beach.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at radar it looks like the center is just barely onshore still in southern cuba

[Category5Kaiju]

This storm is starting to look a bit less sloppy on visible. Landfall and it’s the best it’s looked in a day.

I've heard some people debate this, but I wonder if the storm making landfall over Cuba could "snap" the MLC and LLC together, thereby actually benefiting the system rather than hurting it in the longer term?

[captainbarbossa19]

This storm is starting to look a bit less sloppy on visible. Landfall and it’s the best it’s looked in a day.

I've heard some people debate this, but I wonder if the storm making landfall over Cuba could "snap" the MLC and LLC together, thereby actually benefiting the system rather than hurting it in the longer term?

I can recall many struggling TCs looking better once making landfall. Land can often increase vorticity in the cyclones too.

[Torgo]

With the 12z ECMWF showing a Category 1 hurricane at landfall in Florida, (with the high environmental pressure 991 would be enough) it would be a good idea to issue Hurricane Watches for parts of the west coast. They may be waiting to see the condition of the storm after it crosses Cuba. While the ULL will induce shear it would not take much for a minimal hurricane to occur.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1412139163697270789