ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1412070077474746376

[Chemmers]

Big blow up off thunderstorm right near or on top off the centre

[Hurricane Mike]

Elsa will still wet the Florida west coast, but highly unlikely to become a hurricane.

[robbielyn]

https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1412070077474746376

Elsa isn’t a go big or go home storm that’s for sure.

[Hurricane Mike]

12pm video update
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IE2H3-CyCvw

[Prosepro]

We here in tampa bay in the last 99 years pretty much only experience sloppy gulf storms minus irma and the noname storm of 93. you can throw in frances and jeanne but they came at us after crossing the state from the east coast. we had a close call with charley as it was forecasted to hit us but an unusual cold front in August kept it south of us. now southward or the panhandle different story. but right here in our little nook we fair quite well considering. And we are not complaining. however storm surge especially at astronomical high tide no fun for those near the water west of US 19.

You have been fortunate in the Tampa area. Coastal shoaling factor indicates that Tampa Bay area is second only to SE Louisiana and Mississippi for potential storm surge. Shallow water offshore could push a 20ft wall of water into Tampa Bay from an average-sized Cat 3 approaching from the SE.

You can look at past hurricanes in any location here. Type in North Atlantic Basin for the search and click on it when it pops up. Turn off all hurricanes so you can zoom in and move the map around more quickly. Use the pushpin to set a location and then re-select what storms you want to see. I selected Cat 1-5 hurricanes within 60nm (70 miles) of Tampa.

http://wxman57.com/images/tampa.JPG

Where can I find that resource? Am I missing a link? I don't see one.

[wxman57]

We here in tampa bay in the last 99 years pretty much only experience sloppy gulf storms minus irma and the noname storm of 93. you can throw in frances and jeanne but they came at us after crossing the state from the east coast. we had a close call with charley as it was forecasted to hit us but an unusual cold front in August kept it south of us. now southward or the panhandle different story. but right here in our little nook we fair quite well considering. And we are not complaining. however storm surge especially at astronomical high tide no fun for those near the water west of US 19.

You have been fortunate in the Tampa area. Coastal shoaling factor indicates that Tampa Bay area is second only to SE Louisiana and Mississippi for potential storm surge. Shallow water offshore could push a 20ft wall of water into Tampa Bay from an average-sized Cat 3 approaching from the SE.

You can look at past hurricanes in any location here. Type in North Atlantic Basin for the search and click on it when it pops up. Turn off all hurricanes so you can zoom in and move the map around more quickly. Use the pushpin to set a location and then re-select what storms you want to see. I selected Cat 1-5 hurricanes within 60nm (70 miles) of Tampa.

http://wxman57.com/images/tampa.JPG

Where can I find that resource? Am I missing a link? I don't see one.

Here: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=4/32/-80

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We here in tampa bay in the last 99 years pretty much only experience sloppy gulf storms minus irma and the noname storm of 93. you can throw in frances and jeanne but they came at us after crossing the state from the east coast. we had a close call with charley as it was forecasted to hit us but an unusual cold front in August kept it south of us. now southward or the panhandle different story. but right here in our little nook we fair quite well considering. And we are not complaining. however storm surge especially at astronomical high tide no fun for those near the water west of US 19.

You have been fortunate in the Tampa area. Coastal shoaling factor indicates that Tampa Bay area is second only to SE Louisiana and Mississippi for potential storm surge. Shallow water offshore could push a 20ft wall of water into Tampa Bay from an average-sized Cat 3 approaching from the SE.

You can look at past hurricanes in any location here. Type in North Atlantic Basin for the search and click on it when it pops up. Turn off all hurricanes so you can zoom in and move the map around more quickly. Use the pushpin to set a location and then re-select what storms you want to see. I selected Cat 1-5 hurricanes within 60nm (70 miles) of Tampa.

http://wxman57.com/images/tampa.JPG

Very good post. Tampa has arguably been the most lucky city along the Gulf Coast, as most major cities have experienced a major hurricane in the last century. One day our luck is going to run-out.

[Steve H.]

And Tampa also got a big scare from Elena in the mid eighties I think it was.

[toad strangler]

Tampa’s luck is definitely noteworthy as you would think the area is a sitting duck for October recurving storms from the Caribbean ala Wilma for example.

[cane5]

Am I in the twilight zone I could swear that Elsa looks like it’s shifting to a slant to the NE ?

[AutoPenalti]

Meanwhile metro dade and broward will experience a light breeze and slight showers according to that graph.

[eastcoastFL]

Decent band headed for the keys now

[Category5Kaiju]

Tampa's location is also somewhat fortuitious as it requires a very specific angle for a storm, let alone major, to strike. Unlike other major cities like Miami, New Orleans, or Charleston, which are vulnerable to northward or westward moving storms (which is generally the direction you see Atlantic storms travel), a storm must be traveling hard east to actually hit Tampa and be pulled in that manner by a trough at just the right time so it does not end up too far south (like Punta Gorda/Ft Meyers) or too far north (like the Big Bend region). Now of course this unfortunately does not mean it will never be possible (and hopefully it does not happen anytime soon since that would be very catastrophic), but imho a major hurricane has the best chance of hitting Tampa if it takes an Ivan/Michael-like route where it passes through the Yucutan Channel and then curves eastward.

[tolakram]

Speed this loop up. LLC looks to be very close to the coast now.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[eastcoastFL]

Speed this loop up. LLC looks to be very close to the coast now.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

You can see where the inflow is and you’re right it’s almost on the coast now

[SFLcane]

Meanwhile metro dade and broward will experience a light breeze and slight showers according to that graph.

Lol blame it on the Shield. 15-20 mph winds with scattered showers

[eastcoastFL]

Speed this loop up. LLC looks to be very close to the coast now.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Also looks like cloud cover has really expanded over the day so far

[Jr0d]

Decent band headed for the keys now

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Barely got any rain in Key West from this band. Heavier stuff to the north.

Added some extra lines to my boat yesterday...with the storm most likely passing west of us, our strongest winds will likely be south which my marina is well.protected from.

With the exception of no trash pick up and the city busses not running, it is business as usual.down.here and hotels are sold out. Dodged a bullet again....don't know what the city and county are going to if we have a storm the RIs before hitting us.

[eastcoastFL]

Meanwhile metro dade and broward will experience a light breeze and slight showers according to that graph.

Lol blame it on the Shield. 15-20 mph winds with scattered showers

Up this way we’re looking at the same thing on wind but a bit more rain.