ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[robbielyn]

Alas, upon waking up I am greeted with a sloppy Elsa! I am looking around at some factors that could be causing this, and the only thing that really make sense imho is proximity to land and roughly 10-15 knots of mid-level shear. Other than that, this storm is so weird, it remains weak when conditions are otherwise decently favorable. What the heck.

ETA 2.0 once it gets into the eastern gulf northern gulf strong shear north of sarasota keeping Elsa in check. ok i’m hoping anyways.

[eastcoastFL]

It’s really hard to tell where the center is. I think it’s just NE of that tiny island

[robbielyn]

We here in tampa bay in the last 99 years pretty much only experience sloppy gulf storms minus irma and the noname storm of 93. you can throw in frances and jeanne but they came at us after crossing the state from the east coast. we had a close call with charley as it was forecasted to hit us but an unusual cold front in August kept it south of us. now southward or the panhandle different story. but right here in our little nook we fair quite well considering. And we are not complaining. however storm surge especially at astronomical high tide no fun for those near the water west of US 19.

You have been fortunate in the Tampa area. Coastal shoaling factor indicates that Tampa Bay area is second only to SE Louisiana and Mississippi for potential storm surge. Shallow water offshore could push a 20ft wall of water into Tampa Bay from an average-sized Cat 3 approaching from the SE.

You can look at past hurricanes in any location here. Type in North Atlantic Basin for the search and click on it when it pops up. Turn off all hurricanes so you can zoom in and move the map around more quickly. Use the pushpin to set a location and then re-select what storms you want to see. I selected Cat 1-5 hurricanes within 60nm (70 miles) of Tampa.

http://wxman57.com/images/tampa.JPG

oh that’s really great to know about this graphic thanks wxman!

[eastcoastFL]

Alas, upon waking up I am greeted with a sloppy Elsa! I am looking around at some factors that could be causing this, and the only thing that really make sense imho is proximity to land and roughly 10-15 knots of mid-level shear. Other than that, this storm is so weird, it remains weak when conditions are otherwise decently favorable. What the heck.

ETA 2.0 once it gets into the eastern gulf northern gulf strong shear north of sarasota keeping Elsa in check. ok i’m hoping anyways.

Not much shear there right now. But hopefully some moves in that direction. I doubt she will be very impressive at that point anyway but I’ll take anything that can further deter the system from restrengthening

[jlauderdal]

Alas, upon waking up I am greeted with a sloppy Elsa! I am looking around at some factors that could be causing this, and the only thing that really make sense imho is proximity to land and roughly 10-15 knots of mid-level shear. Other than that, this storm is so weird, it remains weak when conditions are otherwise decently favorable. What the heck.

If this was happening on August 5th instead of July 5th, I can guarantee that there would be season cancel posts saying that Elsa is a sign of persistent low to mid-level shear that will plague all upcoming storms.

While I don't mean to make fun of or criticize anybody in particular, recently (especially on Twitter) I noticed how some individuals pointed out that because Elsa was struggling that meant this season was not going to be active at all. And I was like, what?! So you think that one storm's struggle would tell the entire story, especially when that one storm formed in one of the rarest parts of the season (let alone location-wise as well, with it surviving in the "graveyard" like some ghoul?)

The twitter like all social media is full of mis and disinformation, buyer beware. Elsa's performance is a pre-cursor to nothing.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like the microwave pass from earlier had the center just off the coast at that time…I think

[jlauderdal]

Models are starting to be more bullish with Elsa again. Could this be a trend?

Im sure there will be plenty of debate over on the models thread, the majority of posters are seeking a model solution that gives them hope of something bigger than what we currently have.

[eastcoastFL]

If this was happening on August 5th instead of July 5th, I can guarantee that there would be season cancel posts saying that Elsa is a sign of persistent low to mid-level shear that will plague all upcoming storms.

While I don't mean to make fun of or criticize anybody in particular, recently (especially on Twitter) I noticed how some individuals pointed out that because Elsa was struggling that meant this season was not going to be active at all. And I was like, what?! So you think that one storm's struggle would tell the entire story, especially when that one storm formed in one of the rarest parts of the season (let alone location-wise as well, with it surviving in the "graveyard" like some ghoul?)

The twitter like all social media is full of mis and disinformation, buyer beware. Elsa's performance is a pre-cursor to nothing.

You nailed it. People on Twitter can say whatever they want regardless of if they have any credentials or not. It’s full of misinformation.

[Category5Kaiju]

While I don't mean to make fun of or criticize anybody in particular, recently (especially on Twitter) I noticed how some individuals pointed out that because Elsa was struggling that meant this season was not going to be active at all. And I was like, what?! So you think that one storm's struggle would tell the entire story, especially when that one storm formed in one of the rarest parts of the season (let alone location-wise as well, with it surviving in the "graveyard" like some ghoul?)

The twitter like all social media is full of mis and disinformation, buyer beware. Elsa's performance is a pre-cursor to nothing.

You nailed it. People on Twitter can say whatever they want regardless of if they have any credentials or not. It’s full of misinformation.

Yeah for a lay person simply reading about hurricane related posts on such social media platforms that could be particularly misleading and dangerous, but for a pro met/wx enthusiast like us, we know better not to fall for those.

[Hurricaneman]

I feel this is going to happen, the LLC will die over Cuba, but will reform later in the day closer to the MLC on the north coast of Cuba kind of like when tropical systems go over hilly or mountainous terrain and pop a LLC on the other side of the island similar to Isaias last year

[eastcoastFL]

The twitter like all social media is full of mis and disinformation, buyer beware. Elsa's performance is a pre-cursor to nothing.

You nailed it. People on Twitter can say whatever they want regardless of if they have any credentials or not. It’s full of misinformation.

Yeah for a lay person simply reading about hurricane related posts on such social media platforms that could be particularly misleading and dangerous, but for a pro met/wx enthusiast like us, we know better not to fall for those.

True. I stick to this site, NHC and my local weather people for my weather info.

[tolakram]

I feel this is going to happen, the LLC will die over Cuba, but will reform later in the day closer to the MLC on the north coast of Cuba kind of like when tropical systems go over hilly or mountainous terrain and pop a LLC on the other side of the island similar to Isaias last year

It's going over the flattest part of Cuba though, which is why I think the models have been keeping the center intact.

[underthwx]

We here in tampa bay in the last 99 years pretty much only experience sloppy gulf storms minus irma and the noname storm of 93. you can throw in frances and jeanne but they came at us after crossing the state from the east coast. we had a close call with charley as it was forecasted to hit us but an unusual cold front in August kept it south of us. now southward or the panhandle different story. but right here in our little nook we fair quite well considering. And we are not complaining. however storm surge especially at astronomical high tide no fun for those near the water west of US 19.

You have been fortunate in the Tampa area. Coastal shoaling factor indicates that Tampa Bay area is second only to SE Louisiana and Mississippi for potential storm surge. Shallow water offshore could push a 20ft wall of water into Tampa Bay from an average-sized Cat 3 approaching from the SE.

You can look at past hurricanes in any location here. Type in North Atlantic Basin for the search and click on it when it pops up. Turn off all hurricanes so you can zoom in and move the map around more quickly. Use the pushpin to set a location and then re-select what storms you want to see. I selected Cat 1-5 hurricanes within 60nm (70 miles) of Tampa.

http://wxman57.com/images/tampa.JPG

oh that’s really great to know about this graphic thanks wxman!

Wxman57... That map is too cool for school... Thanks for sharing that

[tolakram]

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Elsa while
it approaches the south coast of Cuba this morning. Based on
SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft, the intensity is held
at 55 kt for this advisory. A center dropsonde from the plane
measured 1009 mb with 26 kt at the surface, so the minimum central
pressure estimate is 1006 mb, indicating no significant change since
yesterday. Tail Doppler wind data from the NOAA plane showed that
there is an eastward tilt of the center with height, so the storm
continues to have some vertical alignment issues. Satellite imagery
continues to depict convective banding features over the eastern
portion of the circulation, with the center located near the western
edge of the main cloud mass.

Elsa continues its northwestward track with an initial motion
estimate of 310/12 kt. Over the next 2-3 days, the tropical
cyclone should move between a subtropical ridge over the southwest
North Atlantic and a mid-level low over the northern Gulf of
Mexico. In the latter part of the forecast period, Elsa is
forecast to accelerate northeastward into the westerlies off the
eastern United States coast and into the Atlantic, where it should
lose its tropical characteristics in the vicinity of Nova Scotia.

Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the official track track forecast
has been nudged slightly westward toward the model consensus aids,
HCCA and TVCA, but not as far west as that guidance. The GFS model
track lies a little east of the latest NHC track.

Some slight weakening is likely while Elsa crosses west-central Cuba
today. Restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico is likely to be
limited by moderate westerly shear associated with a broad
upper-level trough over the Gulf. The official intensity forecast
is mostly higher than the numerical model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today
resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa
approaches the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and coastal
Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated
flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy
rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result
in isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are
expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba
today.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Florida Keys and along the Florida west coast tonight through
Tuesday night, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A
Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for
portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Big Bend.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge
impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and
Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.5N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 23.2N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 25.0N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 27.0N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 29.3N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 31.5N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1200Z 38.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 10/1200Z 44.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[eastcoastFL]

I feel this is going to happen, the LLC will die over Cuba, but will reform later in the day closer to the MLC on the north coast of Cuba kind of like when tropical systems go over hilly or mountainous terrain and pop a LLC on the other side of the island similar to Isaias last year

It's going over the flattest part of Cuba though, which is why I think the models have been keeping the center intact.

https://i.imgur.com/kULGN83.png

Would you say that in its current state there really isn’t much of a core to be disrupted over land? I imagine it will emerge as about the same slop bucket that it is now. I am curious as to if land makes it jump around and pop out north of Cuba in a different spot than expected.

[eastcoastFL]

[GrayLancer18]

thank goodness it’s only a dream!

Yeah, I forgot to mention that that is how stressed out the storm has me. I still consider this will be severely weakened to maybe a depression by the time it gets here.

I dunno about that, this one doesn't seem to give up very easily. Just hope you can be prepared as possible for whatever she might throw your way.

You're right. I shouldn't jump the gun. The NHC still maintain her as a moderate TS up until landfall.

[toad strangler]

Models are starting to be more bullish with Elsa again. Could this be a trend?

the majority of posters are seeking a model solution that gives them hope of something bigger than what we currently have.

That wouldn’t take much

[AnnularCane]

Apparently they're currently expecting Elsa to become a TS again after reemerging into the Atlantic. I just noticed that. Is this going to become a trend?

She's been a fascinating little storm.

[psyclone]

Elsa's track keeps ticking westward. If the storm does somehow manage to get better stacked and wrapped, the heaviest weather would remain just offshore the high population areas assuming it follows that track or deviates westward any more..