ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

They (recon) marked that loop just west of the prior fix as the center. They are headed back in that direction

[Canelaw99]

Getting to play pin the center on the cyclone

I imagine this is a hit at NHC parties

[ScottNAtlanta]

Getting to play pin the center on the cyclone

I imagine this is a hit at NHC parties

It would be if we were the ones attending

[wxman57]

This is where I think the center is located

https://i.imgur.com/uGpeevL.jpg

Recon says you're way too far south. Pressure up to 1009mb. If it rises 4 more MB then it will reverse its spin direction and become an anticyclone.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Look at that SSE wind jet that recon keeps finding well east of the center. That's not really part of Elsa's circulation. It's causing the wind shear. Center remains on the west side of the convection. No change in organization overnight. Pressure 1006-1007 mb, max winds about 45 kts.

If this is the case, do you know why the NHC has been maintaining the intensity at 55 kt? I assume that the NHC knows about the influence of the low-level jet...

The term "low-level jet" is slightly misleading as it implies that the process is not related to Elsa. As far as I can tell, this area of higher winds is really caused by the interaction between Elsa's low-pressure center (and its associated wave envelope), the high-pressure thumb ridge to Elsa's north, and the low-level trade wind surge on the back side of Elsa. It's important for the NHC to include these winds as they are associated with Elsa and will travel with it (including onto land) as long as the interaction continues. It's the same reason why some storms out in the MDR will have higher winds than expected based upon their size and pressure - this interaction between the system, its steering patterns, and its zonal flow is what gives rise to these winds as they wouldn't be occurring otherwise. NHC has to acknowledge them as being a part of the storm's windfield for that reason.

[StPeteMike]

Will say, I have been amazed by the two Elsa’s. The early Elsa that had the factor of high speed getting up to the a Cat 1 hurricane, which many doubted would happen, and the current Elsa that has some more favorable conditions and just struggled to get going.

Shear is supposed to lessen once Elsa gets in the Gulf, let’s see if she has one more surprise up her sleeve or just comes up to the Tampa Bay region a sloppy Elsa.

[SFLcane]

Forget the cone in Florida lots of convergence and bands will be coming north.

[Cat5James]

Forget the cone in Florida lots of convergence and bands will be coming north.

https://i.postimg.cc/PrNCq5TV/C30-B754-D-EE64-4-C50-8-FAA-141501-DFAACD.jpg

This storm is heavily weighted to the East. The center staying off shore to the west is almost meaningless… the heaviest convection will find itself over the peninsula at the current projected path.

[wxman57]

Look at that SSE wind jet that recon keeps finding well east of the center. That's not really part of Elsa's circulation. It's causing the wind shear. Center remains on the west side of the convection. No change in organization overnight. Pressure 1006-1007 mb, max winds about 45 kts.

If this is the case, do you know why the NHC has been maintaining the intensity at 55 kt? I assume that the NHC knows about the influence of the low-level jet...

The term "low-level jet" is slightly misleading as it implies that the process is not related to Elsa. As far as I can tell, this area of higher winds is really caused by the interaction between Elsa's low-pressure center (and its associated wave envelope), the high-pressure thumb ridge to Elsa's north, and the low-level trade wind surge on the back side of Elsa. It's important for the NHC to include these winds as they are associated with Elsa and will travel with it (including onto land) as long as the interaction continues. It's the same reason why some storms out in the MDR will have higher winds than expected based upon their size and pressure - this interaction between the system, its steering patterns, and its zonal flow is what gives rise to these winds as they wouldn't be occurring otherwise. NHC has to acknowledge them as being a part of the storm's windfield for that reason.

Agree, if Elsa wasn't there, then those winds would be a lot lower. However, the plane found those winds outside of squalls, for the most part, making it hard for them to extend down to the surface. It's not likely surface winds were stronger than FL winds there. NHC's 55 kt wind estimate may be possible, but winds are more likely lower (45-50 kts). I tend to use a more likely wind in my advisories rather than the peak possible. Too many complaints about wind forecasts being too high over land. NHC's job is public safety, mine is providing a realistic estimate of what a business will likely experience. I don't have to worry about getting people to evacuate the coast.

[robbielyn]

Will say, I have been amazed by the two Elsa’s. The early Elsa that had the factor of high speed getting up to the a Cat 1 hurricane, which many doubted would happen, and the current Elsa that has some more favorable conditions and just struggled to get going.

Shear is supposed to lessen once Elsa gets in the Gulf, let’s see if she has one more surprise up her sleeve or just comes up to the Tampa Bay region a sloppy Elsa.

We here in tampa bay in the last 99 years pretty much only experience sloppy gulf storms minus irma and the noname storm of 93. you can throw in frances and jeanne but they came at us after crossing the state from the east coast. we had a close call with charley as it was forecasted to hit us but an unusual cold front in August kept it south of us. now southward or the panhandle different story. but right here in our little nook we fair quite well considering. And we are not complaining. however storm surge especially at astronomical high tide no fun for those near the water west of US 19.

[Category5Kaiju]

Alas, upon waking up I am greeted with a sloppy Elsa! I am looking around at some factors that could be causing this, and the only thing that really make sense imho is proximity to land and roughly 10-15 knots of mid-level shear. Other than that, this storm is so weird, it remains weak when conditions are otherwise decently favorable. What the heck.

[AnnularCane]

Just woke up from a dream of Elsa going through Florida as a subtropical storm but with Cat 1 winds

thank goodness it’s only a dream!

Yeah, I forgot to mention that that is how stressed out the storm has me. I still consider this will be severely weakened to maybe a depression by the time it gets here.

I dunno about that, this one doesn't seem to give up very easily. Just hope you can be prepared as possible for whatever she might throw your way.

[AlphaToOmega]

Models are starting to be more bullish with Elsa again. Could this be a trend?

[Category5Kaiju]

Models are starting to be more bullish with Elsa again. Could this be a trend?

There has been a westward jog in many of these models and that keeps Elsa over water longer. Now if she actually takes advantage of this and intensifies, then I would be surprised given how this storm seems to not want to intensify even when conditions seemed to give a green light otherwise. But hey, weirder crap has happened before in the tropics, so let's watch and see how it pans out. Remember, landfall in Florida is not expected until about Wednesday if I am not mistaken.

[wxman57]

We here in tampa bay in the last 99 years pretty much only experience sloppy gulf storms minus irma and the noname storm of 93. you can throw in frances and jeanne but they came at us after crossing the state from the east coast. we had a close call with charley as it was forecasted to hit us but an unusual cold front in August kept it south of us. now southward or the panhandle different story. but right here in our little nook we fair quite well considering. And we are not complaining. however storm surge especially at astronomical high tide no fun for those near the water west of US 19.

You have been fortunate in the Tampa area. Coastal shoaling factor indicates that Tampa Bay area is second only to SE Louisiana and Mississippi for potential storm surge. Shallow water offshore could push a 20ft wall of water into Tampa Bay from an average-sized Cat 3 approaching from the SE.

You can look at past hurricanes in any location here. Type in North Atlantic Basin for the search and click on it when it pops up. Turn off all hurricanes so you can zoom in and move the map around more quickly. Use the pushpin to set a location and then re-select what storms you want to see. I selected Cat 1-5 hurricanes within 60nm (70 miles) of Tampa.

[aspen]

Alas, upon waking up I am greeted with a sloppy Elsa! I am looking around at some factors that could be causing this, and the only thing that really make sense imho is proximity to land and roughly 10-15 knots of mid-level shear. Other than that, this storm is so weird, it remains weak when conditions are otherwise decently favorable. What the heck.

If this was happening on August 5th instead of July 5th, I can guarantee that there would be season cancel posts saying that Elsa is a sign of persistent low to mid-level shear that will plague all upcoming storms.

[kevin]

Models are starting to be more bullish with Elsa again. Could this be a trend?

Yeah I was also surprised by euro's sudden bullish 990 mbar run. Since Elsa is so disorganized I wonder how accurate models can really be at the moment so I'd wait until after the Cuba landfall before drawing conclusions. But the west shifts today by the models do seem to indicate that Elsa could have more time to intensify later on. That being said, it's Elsa so who knows.

[Sciencerocks]

[eastcoastFL]

This is where I think the center is located

https://i.imgur.com/uGpeevL.jpg

Recon says you're way too far south. Pressure up to 1009mb. If it rises 4 more MB then it will reverse its spin direction and become an anticyclone.

Why is that? I know we’ve seen waves or lows at 1013mb before. Has that ever happened before or is Elsa just a freak?

[Category5Kaiju]

Alas, upon waking up I am greeted with a sloppy Elsa! I am looking around at some factors that could be causing this, and the only thing that really make sense imho is proximity to land and roughly 10-15 knots of mid-level shear. Other than that, this storm is so weird, it remains weak when conditions are otherwise decently favorable. What the heck.

If this was happening on August 5th instead of July 5th, I can guarantee that there would be season cancel posts saying that Elsa is a sign of persistent low to mid-level shear that will plague all upcoming storms.

While I don't mean to make fun of or criticize anybody in particular, recently (especially on Twitter) I noticed how some individuals pointed out that because Elsa was struggling that meant this season was not going to be active at all. And I was like, what?! So you think that one storm's struggle would tell the entire story, especially when that one storm formed in one of the rarest parts of the season (let alone location-wise as well, with it surviving in the "graveyard" like some ghoul?)