ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

LLC barely moved in the last 2 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/s0mEHDY.jpg

I think that is a decaying center. I think the real one is further south and has reformed under the convection

[NDG]

I don't know hat that little loop was about, but they are headed in the direction of where I think a center is or is forming

There's nothing down by the MLC at the surface, pressures are higher with nothing but NW and westerly winds underneath the MLC.
The LLC might get tucked closer to it if it is doing a cyclonic loop but it will not reform down there.

[ObsessedMiami]

At the very least, this storm has been a great warmup for the rest of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/QzxbnTH.jpg

Tiny little thing

[ScottNAtlanta]

There was a wind shift on the latest obs to the wsw of where they got the last fix, but I think they missed it to the west. the pressures were lower then they went up again as they passed it. Regardless, it is not on the coast of Cuba

[tolakram]

All I see is another morning where Elsa has 2 or 3 centers.

Seriously though. the Euro and GFS now show a more organized system (tropical storm strength) heading into the gulf, so while it's a mess now no one should let their guard down as it moves north. The NHC forecast for a TS remains solid, with the only significant error so far being the unexpected strengthening near Barbados.

[GrayLancer18]

Just woke up from a dream of Elsa going through Florida as a subtropical storm but with Cat 1 winds

EDIT: This is to show how this thing has me stressed out.

[xironman]

I don't know hat that little loop was about, but they are headed in the direction of where I think a center is or is forming

There's nothing down by the MLC at the surface, pressures are higher with nothing but NW and westerly winds underneath the MLC.
The LLC might get tucked closer to it if it is doing a cyclonic loop but it will not reform down there.

Why couldn't a new center form down by the strongest convection. The old LLC is washing out while being pull by the gyre, basically an open wave at this point.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is where I think the center is located

[Shell Mound]

Look at that SSE wind jet that recon keeps finding well east of the center. That's not really part of Elsa's circulation. It's causing the wind shear. Center remains on the west side of the convection. No change in organization overnight. Pressure 1006-1007 mb, max winds about 45 kts.

If this is the case, do you know why the NHC has been maintaining the intensity at 55 kt? I assume that the NHC knows about the influence of the low-level jet...

[CFLHurricane]

At the very least, this storm has been a great warmup for the rest of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/QzxbnTH.jpg

Tiny little thing

I’m just grateful we’re getting our slop storm out of the way early this season and am redirecting my expectations towards a possible late July flurry of activity because we all know Elsa doesn’t deserve much further consideration.

You can say I’m letting Elsa go.

[robbielyn]

Just woke up from a dream of Elsa going through Florida as a subtropical storm but with Cat 1 winds

thank goodness it’s only a dream!

[Dean4Storms]

There was a wind shift on the latest obs to the wsw of where the got the last fix, but I think they missed it to the west. the pressures were lower then they went up again as they passed it. Regardless, it is not on the coast of Cuba

Right, it's not made landfall yet. It's near 21.4N 80.8W moving NW.

[CFLHurricane]

This is where I think the center is located

https://i.imgur.com/uGpeevL.jpg

Getting to play pin the center on the cyclone has been the most entertaining aspect of Elsa. I concur Elsa could form a new center down there like a normal tropical cyclone, but she hasn’t shown any willingness to be normal.

Elsa is just going to slop her way into the eastern gulf prior to slopping her way somewhere north of Tampa.

[GrayLancer18]

Just woke up from a dream of Elsa going through Florida as a subtropical storm but with Cat 1 winds

thank goodness it’s only a dream!

Yeah, I forgot to mention that that is how stressed out the storm has me. I still consider this will be severely weakened to maybe a depression by the time it gets here.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just woke up from a dream of Elsa going through Florida as a subtropical storm but with Cat 1 winds

thank goodness it’s only a dream!

Yeah, I forgot to mention that that is how stressed out the storm has me. I still consider this will be severely weakened to maybe a depression by the time it gets here.

If you are stressed now...just wait till mid August...this is the pre-game show.

[Shell Mound]

Once over the Gulf, low- to mid-level shear should lessen and become aligned with the deep-layer flow, so Elsa could organise best between Cuba and FL.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1412036966946770949



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1412042614006820864



 https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status/1412042475896819713

[NDG]

I don't know hat that little loop was about, but they are headed in the direction of where I think a center is or is forming

There's nothing down by the MLC at the surface, pressures are higher with nothing but NW and westerly winds underneath the MLC.
The LLC might get tucked closer to it if it is doing a cyclonic loop but it will not reform down there.

Why couldn't a new center form down by the strongest convection. The old LLC is washing out while being pull by the gyre, basically an open wave at this point.

Because the LLC further north is still very well established, the circulation is tilted.
Like I said before I think it might be making a cyclonic loop realigning itself closer to the MLC but it will not just die out and reform down there.

[CFLHurricane]

There's nothing down by the MLC at the surface, pressures are higher with nothing but NW and westerly winds underneath the MLC.
The LLC might get tucked closer to it if it is doing a cyclonic loop but it will not reform down there.

Why couldn't a new center form down by the strongest convection. The old LLC is washing out while being pull by the gyre, basically an open wave at this point.

Because the LLC further north is still very well established, the circulation is tilted.
Like I said before I think it might be making a cyclonic loop realigning itself closer to the MLC but it will not just die out and reform down there.

https://i.imgur.com/xg3pXMn.jpg

Yes, the MMIC-TPW shows a vigorous center currently making landfall on Cuba and no hints of any other center trying to form. We should expect this center to emerge in the gulf by this evening where we’ll really see if Elsa is trying to be something. When in doubt, MMIC-TPW it out!

[TallyTracker]

I’m still prepped for as high as a low-end hurricane here in the Big Bend. Better safe than sorry. Not expecting much here even if it passes only 30 miles east of me as shown on Elsa’s current path. Maybe some low end TS winds but that’s it.

[wxman57]

Look at that SSE wind jet that recon keeps finding well east of the center. That's not really part of Elsa's circulation. It's causing the wind shear. Center remains on the west side of the convection. No change in organization overnight. Pressure 1006-1007 mb, max winds about 45 kts.

If this is the case, do you know why the NHC has been maintaining the intensity at 55 kt? I assume that the NHC knows about the influence of the low-level jet...

The NHC forecasters are always careful not to indicate any weakening prior to landfall. They always go toward the high end of possible max winds. Recon can't even find FL wind to 55 kts, except possibly in that SSE low-level jet well east of the center. Generally, max winds are 35-45 kts, with no TS wind SW of the center and barely 35kts NW of the center, if that. They keep max winds at 50 kts across the Gulf so people will pay attention to the storm. It's their job to protect people and keep them out of harm's way. It's my job to tell businesses what winds they are more likely to experience so that they can properly prepare to mitigate damage.