ATL: GRACE - Models

[otowntiger]

06z Euro trended a little north, skirting the northern coast of PR and Hispaniola but surviving unlike its earlier 0z run.

https://i.imgur.com/IDhWm8y.gif

looks as if the Euro is showing it weakening slightly as it heads toward the Bahamas- that is in line with what the NHC is seeing with regard to not so favorable conditions for intensification, fortunately.

[SFLcane]

So now the HAFS-B is showing a Cat1 in the Bahamas.

[toad strangler]

So now the HAFS-B is showing a Cat1 in the Bahamas.

What the heck is the HAFS-B

[SFLcane]

So now the HAFS-B is showing a Cat1 in the Bahamas.

What the heck is the HAFS-B

Andy’s model

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

Cat 2 in Florida city

[BobHarlem]

12Z Icon (so far)

[HurricaneFrances04]

12Z GFS shows stronger vorticity, tracking right over Puerto Rico.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS is looking like death by Hispaniola so far.

EDIT: Pulls north at the last minute.

[Shell Mound]

12z GFS is looking like death by Hispaniola so far.

Surprisingly, this run is the strongest yet through 48h and shows a rapidly deepening, 995-mb TS turning westward into the Dominican Republic.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GFS is looking like death by Hispaniola so far.

EDIT: Pulls north at the last minute.

Yep. It is hugging the coastline. This is going to be an interesting run.

[Cat5James]

12z GFS is looking like death by Hispaniola so far.

EDIT: Pulls north at the last minute.

Yep. It is hugging the coastline. This is going to be an interesting run.

This run seems realistic based off the steering currents I'm seeing.... unfortunate run for Puerto Rico.

[Category5Kaiju]

Something that I have been wondering recently is with Fred really struggling and unlikely to become anything significant as it makes landfall on the Gulf Coast (being more west than what we were predicting earlier), I wonder if that would mean a partially more favorable environment for Grace than previously anticipated?

[aspen]

ICON brushes the islands, goes through the Florida Straits, and intensifies in the Gulf. That seems like a more realistic track than heading all the way up to 25N per the HWRF.

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFS looks like it's making a bee line for the Upper Keys. Starting to intensify near Andros Island.

[captainbarbossa19]

ICON brushes the islands, goes through the Florida Straits, and intensifies in the Gulf. That seems like a more realistic track than heading all the way up to 25N per the HWRF.

Not liking the favorable Gulf. I sure hope Grace stays out! On the last run of the GFS, it showed Grace hitting Florida, and then turning NNE. It will be interesting to see if it shows the Gulf too.

[Kohlecane]

ICON brushes the islands, goes through the Florida Straits, and intensifies in the Gulf. That seems like a more realistic track than heading all the way up to 25N per the HWRF.

ICONS intensity seems a bit off, especially once it sits in the gulf for 48 hours

[Shell Mound]

12z GFS is looking like death by Hispaniola so far.

EDIT: Pulls north at the last minute.

Yep. It is hugging the coastline. This is going to be an interesting run.

This run seems realistic based off the steering currents I'm seeing.... unfortunate run for Puerto Rico.

The GFS shows very little deepening until landfall in South Florida, given that it shows a sharp TUTT axis just to the west of Grace. Time is of the essence...

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFS 12z shows high pressure building back in before it can make landfall on the Florida peninsula (goes through the upper Keys), and is similar to the ICON showing intensifying in the Gulf

[captainbarbossa19]

GFS looks like it's making a bee line for the Upper Keys. Starting to intensify near Andros Island.

Moving into the Gulf at hour 132.

[ObsessedMiami]

Fred has turned me off of model watching for awhile

[captainbarbossa19]

GFS looks like it's making a bee line for the Upper Keys. Starting to intensify near Andros Island.

Moving into the Gulf at hour 132.

Grace is still moving W to WNW at hour 150 and is rapidly intensifying now. This is not going to end well on this run.