ATL: FRED - Models

[SFLcane]

[Shell Mound]

I will say the potential for a quick episode of rapid intensification right before FL is a little concerning. Conditions do appear more favorable than they were a few days ago.

The good news is that virtually all the guidance agrees that PTC Six will be a small system, reducing the risk of hazards other than wind, and the strongest winds would be limited to a small area. If PTC Six were somehow to “do the impossible” and end up striking Southeast Florida as a deepening hurricane, it would be similar to a storm like Cleo (1964) or Andrew (1992): a storm that will not be memorable outside a very small area that happens to experience the strongest winds. By contrast, a large major hurricane like Wilma or the 1926 Miami hurricane would deliver a greater variety of hazards besides wind to a much larger area. During Andrew people just 30 n mi north of the eye were barely cognisant of a major storm.

[Jr0d]

While the HWRF is bullish, pretty much all models are showing significant strengthening as it approaches S. Florida. The latest HWRF shows a 972mb hurricane making a direct hit in the Miami area. Not a good scenario, however with HWRF often over strengthening storms, this run hopefully is way too bullish.

With the models trending slightly north and east, I think the NHC may adjust their track slightly north at 5pm.

[ElectricStorm]

I will say the potential for a quick episode of rapid intensification right before FL is a little concerning. Conditions do appear more favorable than they were a few days ago.

The good news is that virtually all the guidance agrees that PTC Six will be a small system, reducing the risk of hazards other than wind, and the strongest winds would be limited to a small area. If PTC Six were somehow to “do the impossible” and end up striking Southeast Florida as a deepening hurricane, it would be similar to a storm like Cleo (1964) or Andrew (1992): a storm that will not be memorable outside a very small area that happens to experience the strongest winds. By contrast, a large major hurricane like Wilma or the 1926 Miami hurricane would deliver a greater variety of hazards besides wind to a much larger area.

Andrew was the costliest storm in Atlantic history when it hit at the time. I get what you're saying but the wind damage can still be terrible.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro running

[SFLcane]

While the HWRF is bullish, pretty much all models are showing significant strengthening as it approaches S. Florida. The latest HWRF shows a 972mb hurricane making a direct hit in the Miami area. Not a good scenario, however with HWRF often over strengthening storms, this run hopefully is way too bullish.

With the models trending slightly north and east, I think the NHC may adjust their track slightly north at 5pm.

To me the fact the we now have both hurricane models Hmon and hwrf showing a strengthening storm on approach to SFL has me concerned.

[tolakram]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I have no objections with how the HWRF is portraying 06L in the short term. Here's the look at 15z, which is pretty accurate.

[AxaltaRacing24]

IF Fred took that track, I don't think a cat 1 is out of reach at all. It is August in steaming hot water. Notice how the HMON runs straight into every island and STILL landfalls in the 990s.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.postimg.cc/HsY3FxPx/61-E79-E1-B-5-AB5-4-D33-8072-3-A69-E78782-C2.png

NHC hasnt shown any interest in the HWRF in terms of track or intensity, check back at 5 and see if they bite on it, i doubt it. The ridging looks good on the consensus.

[StPeteMike]

The downside with Future Fred not getting its act together before PR and Hispaniola is my description of Hurricane Laura and Elsa , which is that a storm with multiple vortices will not be heavily impacted by land interaction and if a weak center gets disrupted by land, one of the weaker vortices that will likely be off the coast and over water will become the new center pretty easily. Even if it becomes a minimal TS, this will likely still play out.

[ElectricStorm]

I don't think this'll come in as strong as the HWRF shows however I'm starting to get a little more concerned now that both intensity models are showing favorable conditions once it clears the islands.

[BobHarlem]

HMON has a second landfall in the Panhandle near Alligator Point Sunday afternoon. HWRF still has a Tropical Storm exiting to the Gulf north of Tampa then.

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/HsY3FxPx/61-E79-E1-B-5-AB5-4-D33-8072-3-A69-E78782-C2.png

NHC hasnt shown any interest in the HWRF in terms of track or intensity, check back at 5 and see if they bite on it, i doubt it. The ridging looks good on the consensus.

Here ya, 12z guidance for the most part shifted east.

[chris_fit]

[AutoPenalti]

Euro doesn't do much with it in the short term as it still hits DR.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro takes it directly across Hispaniola and then very close to Cuba. Will it also bite on an early NE turn?

[gatorcane]

We need a combined Euro and GFS model graphic on TT. Most of the time, that consensus is correct. In this case the consensus is nowhere close to the HWRF, a model which usually overdoes the intensity.

[chris_fit]

[nativefloridian]

I will say the potential for a quick episode of rapid intensification right before FL is a little concerning. Conditions do appear more favorable than they were a few days ago.

The good news is that virtually all the guidance agrees that PTC Six will be a small system, reducing the risk of hazards other than wind, and the strongest winds would be limited to a small area. If PTC Six were somehow to “do the impossible” and end up striking Southeast Florida as a deepening hurricane, it would be similar to a storm like Cleo (1964) or Andrew (1992): a storm that will not be memorable outside a very small area that happens to experience the strongest winds. By contrast, a large major hurricane like Wilma or the 1926 Miami hurricane would deliver a greater variety of hazards besides wind to a much larger area.

Andrew was the costliest storm in Atlantic history when it hit at the time. I get what you're saying but the wind damage can still be terrible.

Agreed Weather Dude. With all due respect Shell Mound, the effects of Andrew were felt far more than 30 miles from the eye. I live in Southwest Broward county and the wind damage we experienced was substantial....granted no where near what those in South Dade experienced, but certainly nothing to downplay and certainly a memorable event for all of us in South Florida.