ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Also, with the band to its north and east, Sam kind of looks like what Haiyan would look like if Haiyan got stepped on by a Giant boot and was smushed. It’s just a funny observation that I saw.

[Shell Mound]

Sam is vertically stacked, so that's an eyewall.

It's close.

Microwaves showed the curved band wrapping up earlier. I would say that's an eyewall

Visible imagery suggests that the low-level centre is currently located northwest of the mid-level centre, based on the rotation of low-level clouds between convective bands. There is quite a bit of low-level stability being entrained from the northeast, so the “eye” is almost certainly a dry spot, given that Sam’s LL and MLCs are not yet vertically stacked, though getting closer over time. Currently, I would place the LLC at 11.4°N 39.2°W, just west of the dry spot.

[Zonacane]

It's close.

Microwaves showed the curved band wrapping up earlier. I would say that's an eyewall

Visible imagery suggests that the low-level centre is currently located northwest of the mid-level centre, based on the rotation of low-level clouds between convective bands. There is quite a bit of low-level stability being entrained from the northeast, so the “eye” is almost certainly a dry spot, given that Sam’s LL and MLCs are not yet vertically stacked, though getting closer over time. Currently, I would place the LLC at 11.4°N 39.2°W, just west of the dry spot.

Microwave and the NHC say you are objectively wrong. Visually attempting to estimate the location of the low level center is not how it works.

[grapealcoholic]

It's close.

Microwaves showed the curved band wrapping up earlier. I would say that's an eyewall

Visible imagery suggests that the low-level centre is currently located northwest of the mid-level centre, based on the rotation of low-level clouds between convective bands. There is quite a bit of low-level stability being entrained from the northeast, so the “eye” is almost certainly a dry spot, given that Sam’s LL and MLCs are not yet vertically stacked, though getting closer over time. Currently, I would place the LLC at 11.4°N 39.2°W, just west of the dry spot.

This is wrong lol

[Shell Mound]

Microwaves showed the curved band wrapping up earlier. I would say that's an eyewall

Visible imagery suggests that the low-level centre is currently located northwest of the mid-level centre, based on the rotation of low-level clouds between convective bands. There is quite a bit of low-level stability being entrained from the northeast, so the “eye” is almost certainly a dry spot, given that Sam’s LL and MLCs are not yet vertically stacked, though getting closer over time. Currently, I would place the LLC at 11.4°N 39.2°W, just west of the dry spot.

Microwave and the NHC say you are objectively wrong. Visually attempting to estimate the location of the low level center is not how it works.

MW doesn’t always capture LL centres. You already think that this is a hurricane. To me convection still appears to be rather shallow.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks great to me. Should be a hurricane soon and a major shortly after that in the next couple of days. Will likely challenge Ida for the strongest storm of the season so far.

[grapealcoholic]

We should see some real deep towers pop up going into sunset

[aspen]

This looks a little too ragged to be a hurricane already. 50-55 kt seems good for 5pm IMO.

[zzh]

[cheezyWXguy]

Not an eye yet. I get what shell is saying, but I don’t think it’s so much a misalignment of the center, but more just that convection isn’t all that deep or well organized yet. The center is clearly not under the dry spot, and is instead under that recent relatively deep burst of convection. I’d put this at 50kt.

[zzh]

AL, 18, 2021092318, , BEST, 0, 110N, 391W, 50, 1000, TS,

[Teban54]

Not an eye yet. I get what shell is saying, but I don’t think it’s so much a misalignment of the center, but more just that convection isn’t all that deep or well organized yet. The center is clearly not under the dry spot, and is instead under that recent relatively deep burst of convection. I’d put this at 50kt.

You nailed it!

[Zonacane]

Not an eye yet. I get what shell is saying, but I don’t think it’s so much a misalignment of the center, but more just that convection isn’t all that deep or well organized yet. The center is clearly not under the dry spot, and is instead under that recent relatively deep burst of convection. I’d put this at 50kt.

Pretty clearly an eyewall

[grapealcoholic]

https://i.imgur.com/Ors5Eqx.jpg

Pinhole developing

[Nimbus]

If you slow down the visible loop you can see the northern semi circle of the low level cloud rotation looking down through the dry spot. That is moistening up with a convective burst at sunset. Convection in a slow spinning storm can disrupt a symmetric eyewall formation, RI is often delayed till a clear category 2 eyewall forms due to this issue.

[Blown Away]

Sam chugging away to the W...

[Stormybajan]

https://i.imgur.com/Bnvw1wU.gif
Sam chugging away to the W...

if it gets to 50W under 14N then alarm bells might start ringing for us in the islands but thankfully not many models are showing that ..yet

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/Ors5Eqx.jpg

Pinhole developing

Lol what. MW imagery does not suggest a convective structure anywhere near well formed enough for a pinhole eye at this time. If anything, you’re seeing that overshooting top directly above the llc. Sam is strengthening, but I think we are getting ahead of ourselves a bit

[aspen]

There’s a big hot tower going off over the LLC, maybe a tad bit to the N. Maybe this helps to close off the developing eyewall.

[cycloneye]

FYI= Recon will go on Monday morning with the first of I am sure many missions.

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