ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

That outer band is awfully persistent. It hasn’t stopped the core from organizing, but as long as it persists, it’ll be focusing convection away from the core.

It does seem like the outer band is slowly becoming weaker, I think it won't be an issue for much longer.

[NDG]

Climatology odds are against Larry making it all the west towards US when a Hurricane forms that far east, even chances in Bermuda are fairly low.

 https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1433368475624423424

[Kohlecane]

That outer band is awfully persistent. It hasn’t stopped the core from organizing, but as long as it persists, it’ll be focusing convection away from the core.

It does seem like the outer band is slowly becoming weaker, I think it won't be an issue for much longer.

https://imgur.com/yMSNbQj

Yeah looks like it will die off and rebuild, it's funny because to the casual observer(my wife) she was like wow that is way further west, had to explain where she should focus her eyes on

[tolakram]

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=18396.34765625&y=8056.64208984375&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[tolakram]

From the GOES image viewer site: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php Select storm name at the upper left.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL122021#homePageLink

[Blown Away]

There is a lot going on with Larry, IMO it will take him longer to sort things out. I do think an annular cane or massive coverage area will become of Larry...

[Iceresistance]

Is it just me, or is Larry trying to develop a pinhole eye with a very small core?

[aspen]

Is it just me, or is Larry trying to develop a pinhole eye with a very small core?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/37112590.gif

Seems like a big eye is forming, just the way the HWRF said: a small core would try to form, only to be replaced by a much bigger eye.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks very ragged this morning compared to yesterday.

[cycloneye]

SAB not too enthusiastic.

A. 12L (LARRY)

B. 02/1130Z

C. 13.7N

D. 33.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/4.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...9.5/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET IS
EQUAL TO 4.5 AND PT IS EQUAL TO 4.0 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks very ragged this morning compared to yesterday.

All part of the organizing process.

[cycloneye]

AL, 12, 2021090212, , BEST, 0, 133N, 334W, 70, 985, HU

[Sciencerocks]

[TallyTracker]

I think the eye is well established but the overshooting tops keep obscuring the eye. I think it’s messing up the intensity estimates cause this does not look like a weakening hurricane. Quite the contrary, I think Larry is still steadily intensifying.

[kevin]

I think the eye is well established but the overshooting tops keep obscuring the eye. I think it’s messing up the intensity estimates cause this does not look like a weakening hurricane. Quite the contrary, I think Larry is still steadily intensifying.

Yeah, kinda reminds me of Delta in the sense that it looked ugly on vis, but was still clearly strengthening when recon arrived. Not saying that this will explosively intensify with the same speed as Delta, just that looks can be deceiving especially early in a hurricane's life cycle.

[Iceresistance]

I think the eye is well established but the overshooting tops keep obscuring the eye. I think it’s messing up the intensity estimates cause this does not look like a weakening hurricane. Quite the contrary, I think Larry is still steadily intensifying.

Hurricane Delta in 2020 did just that! Recon proved how strong Delta really was despite the 6-Nautical Mile wide eye being obscured by the Explosive Convection

[kevin]

I think the eye is well established but the overshooting tops keep obscuring the eye. I think it’s messing up the intensity estimates cause this does not look like a weakening hurricane. Quite the contrary, I think Larry is still steadily intensifying.

Hurricane Delta in 2020 did just that! Recon proved how strong Delta really was despite the 6-Nautical Mile wide eye being obscured by the Explosive Convection

Just looked it up and you're right. While recon found 953mb/120kt in Delta, ADT still only had a CI# of 4.2 equivalent to 979mb/70kt. So basically ADT was saying that a cat 4 MH was in fact a struggling cat 1. 6 hours earlier it even only said that Delta was only a TS while it was at 959mb/100kt per recon. This is a very extreme example, but it goes to show that ADT also has its limitations, especially with ugly intensifying systems.

[aspen]

Larry has been awarded floater privileges:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[tolakram]

COD floater

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[MississippiWx]

I think Larry is better organized now than yesterday at this time. The “eye” it was exhibiting yesterday wasn’t really an eye. The center was surrounded by very low-topped convection that wasn’t very strong. It was sure to collapse and it did. Looks to be developing a real core this time around. Once that happens, rapid intensification will be underway.