ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[captainbarbossa19]

I'm personally seeing the center around 14.5N 77.5W and moving at about 280-285 degrees (i.e. WNW).

Yep and the GFS showed at 0z, the center was located around 15.5N, 76.3W. Looks like it's way off.

[Jagno]

Lake Charles and surrounding area took a hit, but they didnt slack. They put their heads down and went to work. They built back quickly and without much help from the government here. No matter what happens Louisiana is ready.

As a resident still living in a camper in my driveway I appreciate the positive but in fact we are so very far from ready and no where near being recovered. We've been thrilled to finally have a few more restaurants reopen but it's still far from normal. Myself, along with one of my daughter in laws spent hours searching and calling around for a nice RV park out of harms way only to find most were already booked. We finally found a nice campground but get this. You lose your money if the reservation is not cancelled within 8 days so they've got every single evacuee like me doling out several hundred dollars that you may or may not lose. State parks are still mostly closed with Covid restrictions. PTSD is very real and people are stressing big time. I waited in a long line to get gas today and many posted that Sam's is being wiped out. Prayers to all in this storms path.

[GCANE]

I don't think I have seen a wave with as much amplitude and in feed as this one in the Carib.
This looks to be a doozy.
Make sure you have plenty of booze and smokes stocked up.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I don’t mean for this to be messed up in any kind of way, so apologies in advance. It’s obvious at this point that future Ida (or Julien) is going to hit either Texas or Louisiana. If this storm doesn’t dissipate into a naked wave like Marco did last season, I’d much rather this storm go into Texas instead of Louisiana. We’re only 2 years into the 2020’s and Louisiana has gotten hit by 6 tropical cyclones, 3 of them being rather powerful hurricanes. I know we had Harvey back in 2017 and Hanna last year, but I don’t want Louisiana to get again. I’m a Galveston native, I’ve dealt with Ike and my family dealt with Harvey (shoutout to the Cajun Navy) but I can’t imagine getting bopped by 6 storms in less than 2 years. Again I don’t wish harm on anyone, but Louisiana needs a HUMUNGOUS break. Again, I’m sorry in advance y’all…

Good afternoon fellow weather junkies. I honestly hate Hurricane season now, which is hard for me to say since I love weather so much. There isn't any more thrill in riding out a storm for me. Deaths, loss of property, livelihoods being lost and the general demoralization of majors have gotten to be too much. After the catastrophes next to the house last year it'll be no fun reroofing and suffering with loved ones again, but I am looking forward to new challenges and working with neighbors again. I'll add this. If this is a SWLA hit Iam Iam curious to see how the completely new electrical infrastructure holds up. Lake Charles and surrounding area took a hit, but they didnt slack. They put their heads down and went to work. They built back quickly and without much help from the government here. No matter what happens Louisiana is ready. Love and prayer.

When people around me say I wish it would go west or east of us I say how about it exits the gulf through the gulfstream. Ha. No loss of life or property this year please. Can we get a cancellation on the Hurricane season!

I look forward to watching weather with you my storm2k friends

[Stormgodess]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/7674/xFEeZL.gif

Im seeing center at the very last frame of this gif at 14N 76W... A tiny bright white dot pops up there in the last frame, you can see rotation just before that

[Stormgodess]

Lake Charles and surrounding area took a hit, but they didnt slack. They put their heads down and went to work. They built back quickly and without much help from the government here. No matter what happens Louisiana is ready.

As a resident still living in a camper in my driveway I appreciate the positive but in fact we are so very far from ready and no where near being recovered. We've been thrilled to finally have a few more restaurants reopen but it's still far from normal. Myself, along with one of my daughter in laws spent hours searching and calling around for a nice RV park out of harms way only to find most were already booked. We finally found a nice campground but get this. You lose your money if the reservation is not cancelled within 8 days so they've got every single evacuee like me doling out several hundred dollars that you may or may not lose. State parks are still mostly closed with Covid restrictions. PTSD is very real and people are stressing big time. I waited in a long line to get gas today and many posted that Sam's is being wiped out. Prayers to all in this storms path.

Please be careful in that camper and try to dodge this thing. My heart is with yall over there in Lake Charles. We faced a bit of the same after Katrina when Gustav was almost a week away from hitting, I called around for hotel rooms, and the closest we found was North Arkansas! So thats where we went, and Gustav's track inland followed us, and we ended up in an area with massive flooding. Please stay safe

[wx98]

I heard someone on TV a couple days ago (can’t remember TWC or local news) say the eastern Caribbean disturbance should go well south of the United States. I was thinking “Yeah, right…”.

[whatacane]

I don't think I have seen a wave with as much amplitude and in feed as this one in the Carib.
This looks to be a doozy.
Make sure you have plenty of booze and smokes stocked up.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XN1ZKcCZ/99L1.png [/url]

that inflow , could that pull it south ?
.

[grapealcoholic]

FWIW the current IR presentation doesn't really line up with the 18z GFS. Would guess this favors a shift west for the 0z

[Stormgodess]

I don't think I have seen a wave with as much amplitude and in feed as this one in the Carib.
This looks to be a doozy.
Make sure you have plenty of booze and smokes stocked up.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XN1ZKcCZ/99L1.png [/url]

that inflow , could that pull it south ?
.

In this image circulation appears to move due west 14N 77W Then jog a little south in the last frame. But Im a total novice and have no idea what Im talking aboutl, its just how it looks to me

 https://twitter.com/aj_fasano/status/1430731064868319237

[AnnularCane]

By the way, 00Z Consensus came in (TVCN) with landfall east of Vermilion Bay before sunrise on Monday.

Well if that verifys that will be worse case for Baton Rouge and all points east.

It would be like Gustav, but much worse. I rode out Gustav in Baton Rouge, was out of power for over 2 weeks. That system was dropping tornados like it was his job.

I remember that. We were staying in some bachelor-pad type place in a tiny town north of Brookhaven, MS, and listening to the radio the whole time, and there seemed to be one tornado warning issued after another. I think the county where we were was the only one that DIDN'T get a warning (as far as I know). One even apparently touched down in the town where I was living at the time, but fortunately didn't seem to have done anything.

[skyline385]

I don't think I have seen a wave with as much amplitude and in feed as this one in the Carib.
This looks to be a doozy.
Make sure you have plenty of booze and smokes stocked up.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XN1ZKcCZ/99L1.png [/url]

that inflow , could that pull it south ?
.

In this image circulation appears to move due west 14N 77W Then jog a little south in the last frame. But Im a total novice and have no idea what Im talking aboutl, its just how it looks to me

https://twitter.com/aj_fasano/status/1430731064868319237?s=20

Who is this guy lol? Some random twitter dude?

[Stormgodess]

that inflow , could that pull it south ?
.

In this image circulation appears to move due west 14N 77W Then jog a little south in the last frame. But Im a total novice and have no idea what Im talking aboutl, its just how it looks to me

https://twitter.com/aj_fasano/status/1430731064868319237?s=20

Who is this guy lol? Some random twitter dude?

LOL Yeh! My internet is slow right now, end of the month throttled. Checking the latest images on twitter actually work for me, the major sites I can never get them to load.

It was the gif posted that I was referring to not him or what he said.

[grapealcoholic]

Lightning firing closer to the core

[NDG]

ASCAT-B shows circulation/trough a bit elongated and displaced from MLC but a bit more defined than what it showed earlier this morning.

[SoupBone]

ASCAT-B shows circulation/trough a bit elongated and displaced from MLC but a bit more defined than what it showed earlier this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/IYldRce.gif

I just don't get how it can from this to a Cat 3/4 in such a short time like the GFS is predicting.

[Blinhart]

ASCAT-B shows circulation/trough a bit elongated and displaced from MLC but a bit more defined than what it showed earlier this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/IYldRce.gif

I just don't get how it can from this to a Cat 3/4 in such a short time like the GFS is predicting.

I see no reason for it not to get all the way up to Cat 5, there is plenty of energy in the GoM, it depends on how fast it gets organized and if it make the Channel or hits some of Cuba. Also depends on if it makes landfall Sunday Evening or Tuesday Morning.

[NDG]

ASCAT-B shows circulation/trough a bit elongated and displaced from MLC but a bit more defined than what it showed earlier this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/IYldRce.gif

I just don't get how it can from this to a Cat 3/4 in such a short time like the GFS is predicting.

Low shear, warm SSTs, moist environment... Don't forget that Grace went from TS to Cat 3 in about 24 hrs.

[Woofde]

This really should be designated as a PTC sooner than later. It could be making landfall in under 4 days from now, and almost all indicators point to it being an intense storm. PTC would also be useful as it may bring tropical storm conditions to The Yucatan, Cuba and/or The Caymens.

[psyclone]

ASCAT-B shows circulation/trough a bit elongated and displaced from MLC but a bit more defined than what it showed earlier this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/IYldRce.gif

I just don't get how it can from this to a Cat 3/4 in such a short time like the GFS is predicting.

well we just had a great example of how fast it can happen a week ago with Grace. No one expected that. There's no assurance it's going to happen but it is possible. Peak season rapid escalations happen.