ATL: GRACE - Models

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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#281 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:18 am

lol HWRF about to slam PR, run seems so off considering the ridge is slightly weaker.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#282 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:19 am

AutoPenalti wrote:lol HWRF about to slam PR.

Just did… looks like it’s going to rake it from east to west.


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#283 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:30 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:lol HWRF about to slam PR.

Just did… looks like it’s going to rake it from east to west.


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And Hispaniola too ....
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#284 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:30 am

Nope… looks like a crash and burn into Hispaniola. Let’s see if she can pull up or if she dies there.


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#285 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:31 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:Nope… looks like a crash and burn into Hispaniola. Let’s see if she can pull up or if she dies there.


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Inexplicable due W movements at the perfect times allow SEVEN to deep SIX itself.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#286 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:33 am

She’s toast… buried deep into the island.


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#287 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:37 am

The Ridge is just perfectly placed for Hispaniola land falls.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#288 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:37 am

You dont see this west turn the HWRF does near P.R. on the other models
you would expect such a strong storm depicted would have a more poleward motion.
Last edited by AtlanticWind on Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#289 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:40 am

AtlanticWind wrote:You dont see this west turn the HWRF does near P.R. on the other models
you would it expect such a strong storm depicted would have a more poleward motion.


It's stair stepping .... that won't verify if intensity is remotely close.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#290 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:43 am

It survives (I think)
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#291 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:48 am

I swear the Hwrf and Hmon are like a bickering couple, when one devoleps a system
the other doesnt and vise versa.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#292 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:54 am

This run of the HWRF has Grace making more ports of call than a Caribbean cruise. She isn’t living long like this.


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#293 Postby sma10 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:59 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:This run of the HWRF has Grace making more ports of call than a Caribbean cruise. She isn’t living long like this.


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She's taking the Georges trip thru the Caribbean Islands. I guess the way I see it, since no model is rock solid perfect from 72 hrs out, I would not bet on this track
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#294 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:02 am

The Caribbean dream tour. Stopping at every Island.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#295 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:05 am

Euro running Nw coast of P.R.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#296 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:12 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:The Caribbean dream tour. Stopping at every Island.



Yeah Island Hopping, its bizarre how big a swing it took from the last run and both had a strong system.
Hard to have any confidence in the HWRF at this point.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#297 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:24 am

AtlanticWind wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:The Caribbean dream tour. Stopping at every Island.



Yeah Island Hopping, its bizarre how big a swing it took from the last run and both had a strong system.
Hard to have any confidence in the HWRF at this point.

I don't trust any model after 2020 tbh. Grace will set the tone and show us who to trust.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#298 Postby otowntiger » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:54 am

It appears that Grace will not be much to worry about based upon the NHC intensity forecast. Conditions continue to be less than hospitable in the Atlantic it appears, thanks to the shear imparted by the upper level troughs, etc. Also her tiny size and fast motion should tamp down the concern for heavy rain I’d think.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#299 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:05 am

06z GFS looks to be the strongest we’ve seen in about 4 or 5 runs. Has a good vort north of Hispaniola on a WNW heading.


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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

#300 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 14, 2021 5:22 am

Give Florida Storms back at it for the 06z run:
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