ATL: SAM - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
tolakram wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Ay4Fh1X.png
About to cross Hebert Box #1.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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grapealcoholic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
edit: this was 0z
Last edited by grapealcoholic on Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
tolakram wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Ay4Fh1X.png
Where can I find the hi-res Euro runs?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Yikes.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Models seem like they're starting to push back development and any strengthening compared to yesterday. Makes me wonder if there's more dry air out there than the models are picking up.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Hammy wrote:Models seem like they're starting to push back development and any strengthening compared to yesterday. Makes me wonder if there's more dry air out there than the models are picking up.
It's the suppressed Kelvin wave and some dry air lingering.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Hammy wrote:Models seem like they're starting to push back development and any strengthening compared to yesterday. Makes me wonder if there's more dry air out there than the models are picking up.
This delay appears to be increasing the risk to the GAs and CONUS.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
What's this compared to the previous run? Tropical Tidbits isn't loading anything beyond 96h.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
12z EURO... Dang, pressure dropping after moving WNW over PR...
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
12z GFS and 12z Euro are a tad different IRT 98L 
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
LarryWx wrote:Hammy wrote:Models seem like they're starting to push back development and any strengthening compared to yesterday. Makes me wonder if there's more dry air out there than the models are picking up.
This delay appears to be increasing the risk to the GAs and CONUS.
As is often the case, delayed development is not necessarily good
Will be interested to see the EPS members soon. Previous couple runs had shown about 10-15% chance of long range mischief
Last edited by sma10 on Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/iK2xpPL.jpg
12z EURO... Dang, pressure dropping after moving WNW over PR...
, let's hope GFS verifies instead of this.
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grapealcoholic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
12z euro is probably the worst case scenario with that riding building back in past the GA's
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
SFLcane wrote:Could easily wnw into the Florida pen.
https://i.postimg.cc/9XG9gP1J/B9-E0-E98-F-28-B6-4682-B6-E1-1966-A82-FEDF2.png
https://i.postimg.cc/9QNwwLFF/D9300931-D1-F8-4-D03-8-D4-D-627-DD9-C67-E4-D.png
Yikes that would possibly end up as an Irma 2.0. Ridiculous for this time of year. This is a 2021 Euro run, though, so this track could (read: hopefully) bust.
Last edited by aspen on Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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