ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

[SoupBone]

Looks like the GFS is going to be closer to being right than the Euro. Center reformation aligns with the general idea that the GFS has been showing in today's runs.

Still, nothing that crazy with intensity. Looks like it could make a run for a Cat 1 then shear wallops it.

[Stormcenter]

I don’t believe the new GFS initializes the new
center on the latest run.

[ROCK]

I don’t believe the new GFS initializes the new
center on the latest run.

It didn’t so it’s trash.06z better data. Hes is going to make a run to a strong cat 1 or even low end 2 IMO..

[ElectricStorm]

I don’t believe the new GFS initializes the new
center on the latest run.

It didn’t so it’s trash.06z better data. Hes is going to make a run to a strong cat 1 or even low end 2 IMO..

Yep I agree, although he may run out of time for Cat 2. There may be a chance of some weakening right before landfall, but at the same time the angle of approach to land could tighten it up some.

[mpic]

Catching up here. Is it still on track to follow 59 to the northeast out of Houston?

[Cpv17]

Catching up here. Is it still on track to follow 59 to the northeast out of Houston?

According to the latest GFS, yes.

[mpic]

Catching up here. Is it still on track to follow 59 to the northeast out of Houston?

According to the latest GFS, yes.

I knew I should have taken a nap. Thank you

[Clearcloudz]

00Z EURO has started running.

[IcyTundra]

Looking back at it is kind of comical how bad the Euro has performed with Nicholas over the course of his life.

[MBryant]

Good Morning. It looks like everyone is getting a good night's sleep ahead of the next episode of

- BA BA BA - THE MODEL WARS!

[ChrisH-UK]

It looks like the 6z run of the NAM 3k model has the best model of what we have now and it shows it coming on land near South Padre Island then relocating back east. Now i know models like the NAM are not necessarily tropical based models but what they do offer is a higher resolution and more rapid updates.

Source Tropical Tidbits - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91306&fh=1

[tolakram]

Euro 0z


Rainfall

[tolakram]

6Z GFS total precip

[tolakram]

Once again the GFS has proven it's the best model to use for a sheared system, the Euro is just outmatched in these conditions. If the center wasn't being constantly tugged NE I suspect the euro solution would win out, but you can see on current radar (discussion thread) how the center is constantly getting tugged or dragged N/NE. Hopefully the GFS precip solution is correct as well, with the upper level winds blowing most of the precip more rapidly east and not sticking in one area very long.

[tolakram]

6Z Euro

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Euro starting to spread the rain east rather than sit in one place. That's a good trend for a bad situation, at least.

[Craters]

12Z GFS coming in on Tropical Tidbits. Unless my memory is messing with me, it looks like a significant change in rainfall totals and distribution.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS coming in on Tropical Tidbits. Unless my memory is messing with me, it looks like a significant change in rainfall totals and distribution.

https://i.ibb.co/RDGv4v2/GFS.jpg

Yep, both GFS and Euro no longer see a stall.

[IcyTundra]

12Z GFS coming in on Tropical Tidbits. Unless my memory is messing with me, it looks like a significant change in rainfall totals and distribution.

https://i.ibb.co/RDGv4v2/GFS.jpg

Yep, both GFS and Euro no longer see a stall.

GFS has been suggesting a faster moving storm for several runs now causing less rain to fall Euro is just now caving to the GFS solution.