ATL: ELSA - Models

[Nimbus]

06 HWRF is a little weaker so should have a more westward solution into the eastern gulf this run.
Model trend with 06 is westward.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF 36 hrs roughly 13.5n 60.8w

[eastcoastFL]

06 HWRF is a little weaker so should have a more westward solution into the eastern gulf this run.
Model trend with 06 is westward.

HWRF looks like it’s on a NW heading for most of today. Starts out just above 9n and by tomorrow morning it’s at 13n

[eastcoastFL]

Passes it’s first interaction with islands with little effect if any. Just moving too fast for those tiny islands to do anything

[Shell Mound]

06 HWRF is a little weaker so should have a more westward solution into the eastern gulf this run.
Model trend with 06 is westward.

Actually, a weaker system would end up farther N, following LL flow.

[eastcoastFL]

Still chugging along at 51 hrs well south of PR but continuing to gain more latitude. It might run into the southern end of Hispaniola



Yup, here comes Hispaniola

[Shell Mound]

Still chugging along at 51 hrs well south of PR but continuing to gain more latitude. It might run into the southern end of Hispaniola

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070106/hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_18.png

In another day or so the ECMWF will likely be vindicated, track- and intensity-wise. Just watch.

[eastcoastFL]

Still chugging along at 51 hrs well south of PR but continuing to gain more latitude. It might run into the southern end of Hispaniola

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070106/hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_18.png

In another day or so the ECMWF will likely be vindicated, track- and intensity-wise. Just watch.

I sure hope so. But it really did terrible last year and it still seems to have the same issues early on this year. You can’t be the king and constantly fail to pick up on genesis and have to play catch up every time.

[kevin]

Both HMON and HWRF are just below or around hurricane strength when Elsa passes the islands (60 - 70 kts). I guess that'll be the ultimate check whether they are correct or whether the weaker solution posed by f.e. ECMWF is more realistic. In any other year I would've gone with ECMWF, but considering EC's weak performance last year and HWRF's strong performance I'm a bit sceptical. But let's hope it stays on the weaker side, a strong storm like this close to land would be bad news for everyone.

[Shell Mound]

Still chugging along at 51 hrs well south of PR but continuing to gain more latitude. It might run into the southern end of Hispaniola

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070106/hwrf_mslp_wind_05L_18.png

In another day or so the ECMWF will likely be vindicated, track- and intensity-wise. Just watch.

I sure hope so. But it really did terrible last year and it still seems to have the same issues early on this year. You can’t be the king and constantly fail to pick up on genesis and have to play catch up every time.

I still think the ECMWF is "king" once it properly initialises systems. Even when it doesn't, it usually handles the synoptic-scale and thermodynamic environment better than the other models. The irony is that even with its failure to gauge Elsa's genesis its solution near the Islands and over the E Caribbean may still be closest to reality, that is, weaker, faster, and farther N.

[aspen]

The 06z HWRF is a lot further north than before, showing a Cat 1/2 landfall at the DR-Haiti border in just 63 hours.

[kevin]

HWRF into southern Hispaniola:

[eastcoastFL]

Clipping the southern end of Hispaniola 63 hours

[Cat5James]

06Z HMON 30mb lower thru 78 hours

[kevin]

HMON is going completely crazy, cat 4 . In this case I think I agree with Shell Mound that it must be a symptom of the hurricane models sometimes overdoing intensity, because such a storm in July would be insane. Also much further south than HWRF.

[eastcoastFL]

In another day or so the ECMWF will likely be vindicated, track- and intensity-wise. Just watch.

I sure hope so. But it really did terrible last year and it still seems to have the same issues early on this year. You can’t be the king and constantly fail to pick up on genesis and have to play catch up every time.

I still think the ECMWF is "king" once it properly initialises systems. Even when it doesn't, it usually handles the synoptic-scale and thermodynamic environment better than the other models. The irony is that even with its failure to gauge Elsa's genesis its solution near the Islands and over the E Caribbean may still be closest to reality, that is, weaker, faster, and farther N.

Well we are still in the initial phases of this one. Phase 1 being genesis and it got a big fat F on that one. Last year it did the same stuff so until it gives me something to believe it’s improved I’m going to continue looking at the consensus of models to which the euro remains an outlier. I truly hope the euro is correct a weak TS going poof is the best solution.

[aspen]

HMON is going completely crazy . In this case I think I agree with Shell Mound that it must be a symptom of the hurricane models sometimes overdoing intensity, because such a storm in July would be insane. Also much further south than HWRF.

https://i.imgur.com/iTof7D1.png

If Elsa does end up tracking further south than the new GFS/HWRF consensus, then a 90-100 kt storm isn’t totally implausible, especially if it threads the gap between the islands and gets into the 29-30C SSTs south of Cuba. Aric has noted that Elsa has remained further south than predicted so far, but if the ridge weakens enough, then Elsa could gain a lot more latitude despite sticking this far south. We’ll need to have that ridge and front sampled by upper air recon in the coming days.

[eastcoastFL]

HMON is going completely crazy . In this case I think I agree with Shell Mound that it must be a symptom of the hurricane models sometimes overdoing intensity, because such a storm in July would be insane. Also much further south than HWRF.

https://i.imgur.com/iTof7D1.png

That channel between Cuba and Jamaica has some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic basin right now and there’s forecast to be low shear so that’s probably why it’s going nuts. I think it’s not factoring in how fast it’s moving as an inhabiting factor so while we may see a strengthening storm it is highly likely that it will be weaker than what the models are showing. Plus this model is bobbing and weaving around islands. This is probably why the NHC is staying conservative but making it known that they are to leave the door open for these whacky possibilities.

[eastcoastFL]

75 hours HWRF landfall eastern Cuba after clipping SW Hispaniola. Let’s see if that sticks a fork in her

[robbielyn]

HWRF right through mountainous regions of Hispanola and Eastern tip of Cuba weekens it to 1003. Best case scenario if this panned out. Also has it staying inland for quite a while in Cuba!