ATL: SAM - Models

[Blown Away]

delaying development.

https://i.imgur.com/XD8Wesv.png

Unless it doesn't develop at all, later development would be bad for possible Caribbean/CONUS impacts since it would less time to recurve right?

Initially, for the NE Caribbean, yes it seems the chances increase for a more WNW track with an impact/close call for the NE Caribbean if 98L takes a bit longer to develop. CONUS impacts is way to early to know and climatology is heavily against a WNW system from the MDR moving into CONUS in October.

[IcyTundra]

This has more model support than Peter ever had. It may not develop as fast as the models are showing, but I don't think this will be Peter 2.0.

[grapealcoholic]

If there is something spinning over the Bahamas, it's going to develop.

Also, HWRF keeps coming in stronger every run lol

[aspen]

HWRF is down to 956mb @105hr, and is even further south than last run, at 12/13N by the time it reaches 50W. This will put it over a tongue of 29.5-30.0C SSTs and help it RI into a major, and make it more likely to be a problem for the Caribbean. However, the HWRF is often either the furthest SW or the furthest NE model at various points in a storm’s life; 14N-15N @50W seems more probable as of now.

The frames past 105hr have not loaded yet for some reason.

[AutoPenalti]

delaying development.

https://i.imgur.com/XD8Wesv.png

Unless it doesn't develop at all, later development would be bad for possible Caribbean/CONUS impacts since it would less time to recurve right?

Initially, for the NE Caribbean, yes it seems the chances increase for a more WNW track with an impact/close call for the NE Caribbean if 98L takes a bit longer to develop. CONUS impacts is way to early to know and climatology is heavily against a WNW system from the MDR moving into CONUS in October.

Euro slightly more south of 0z.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO through 96 hours is a tad weaker and SW, thinking a run onto the NE Caribbean in the future for this EURO run...

[grapealcoholic]

This is an interesting sounding from HWRF. Seems like a stronger storm would feel more easterly or perhaps even northeasterly flow

[tolakram]

A lot weaker.

[SFLcane]

[grapealcoholic]

[SFLcane]

[aspen]

120kt/944mb Cat 4 Hurricane Sam by Sunday afternoon on the HWRF

98L has some huge potential if it takes an HWRF-like track that remains south of 15N prior to reaching 55W. It might even get into the eastern Caribbean if it stays that low.

[SFLcane]

[IcyTundra]

A lot weaker.

https://i.imgur.com/5WcING9.png

We will see if you are right about the delayed development. I can see why you think this could turn out to be Peter 2.0 as development is indeed being pushed back a bit, but I'm trying to remember if the model support was this strong for Peter after it emerged off the coast of Africa.

[grapealcoholic]

HWRF never turned Peter into a Cat 4 beast, that's for sure

[AutoPenalti]

This is starting to remind me of Elsa and Grace to some degree.

[kevin]

12z HWRF track with dots every 6 hours. Green dot indicates when HWRF consistently reaches TS level, the yellow dot indicates hurricane level and the red dot MH. HWRF ends 98L at +126 as a cat 4.

[Iceresistance]

If the WNW Steering is verified (Shown in the 12z HWRF sounding), the Lesser Antilles needs to keep an close eye on this . . .

[aspen]

A lot weaker.

https://i.imgur.com/5WcING9.png

We will see if you are right about the delayed development. I can see why you think this could turn out to be Peter 2.0 as development is indeed being pushed back a bit, but I'm trying to remember if the model support was this strong for Peter after it emerged off the coast of Africa.

This is much better than Peter. The Euro was the main model developing 95L for a while and constantly had its forecasts of rapid genesis pushed back. At this point, the GFS was flip-flopping between something and nothing, and the HWRF was wildly inconsistent as well. I think the CMC and ICON were occasionally showing hurricanes.

Peter never had the GFS, GEFS, Euro, EPS, CMC, ICON, HMON, and HWRF in such a strong agreement for a possible long-tracking major. No run develops it unreasonably quickly either.

[grapealcoholic]

If the WNW Steering is verified (Shown in the 12z HWRF sounding), the Lesser Antilles needs to keep an close eye on this . . .

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/hwrf_2021092112_fh126_sounding_13.33N_51.66W.png

Might just be HWRF silliness but this is surprising -- would have expected a storm that strong to be gaining more latitude