ATL: ELSA - Models

[Blown Away]

00z EURO 48 Hrs... Shows modest TS moving over @St. Lucia. Heading WNW towards DR/Haiti again...

Appears 00z models are generally shifting more NE in the 3+ day range...

[Blown Away]

00z EURO 72 HRS... Landfall Hispaniola as strong TS/Cat 1 and exits into SE Bahamas as TS...

[AtlanticWind]

Not used to the Euro being the north and east most model.

[Blown Away]

00z HWRF 120 hrs... Spends a lot of time down spine of Cuba... Landfalls Key West moving N towards Everglades with winds at 106 mph... Big NE shift from 18z

[Blown Away]

00z Euro 96 Hrs... After Hispaniola landfall 05 moves through SE Bahamas and recurves well offshore from CONUS... Euro significantly faster forward speed than rest of models...

I suspect a moderate NE shift in 5am NHC track days 3-5...

[AtlanticWind]

You will rarely see the GFS and the EURO with that big a difference at only 96 hours.

[AxaltaRacing24]

You will rarely see the GFS and the EURO with that big a difference at only 96 hours.

and it’s even more uncertain if the euro will win that battle due to it just now even starting to acknowledge TD5.

[USTropics]

To add even more confusion, 00z GFS ensembles shifted west, some significantly so. Here is the GFS ensemble trend from the past 3 runs:


00z ECMWF ensembles stay on the eastern envelope:

[Jr0d]

It's (almost) official Tropical Storm Elsa has formed!

Full update in about 30 minutes from the NHC.

Obviously a storm that will have our attention this holiday weekend.

I'm not sure why there is such a discrepancy with the 2 major models....for the short term it appears the GFS has a better handle on the storm....hopefully we will have better inputs by this weekend and have much more certainty.

[Shell Mound]

You will rarely see the GFS and the EURO with that big a difference at only 96 hours.

and it’s even more uncertain if the euro will win that battle due to it just now even starting to acknowledge TD5.

Well, the past three cycles of the GEFS have trended significantly downward with the intensity through 72h (day three) and have also shifted southwestward.

The HWRF is going to bust miserably in terms of its forecast intensity, though it and the GFS did far better with genesis than the ECMWF has thus far.

[AlphaToOmega]

[CDO62]

6Z GFS. Big Bend area.

[jlauderdal]

You will rarely see the GFS and the EURO with that big a difference at only 96 hours.

and it’s even more uncertain if the euro will win that battle due to it just now even starting to acknowledge TD5.

Well, the past three cycles of the GEFS have trended significantly downward with the intensity through 72h (day three) and have also shifted southwestward.

The HWRF is going to bust miserably in terms of its forecast intensity, though it and the GFS did far better with genesis than the ECMWF has thus far.

THE HWRF busting on intensity is no surprise, if this system takes the westerly route at days 4 and 5 then Florida could certainly be looking at a hurricane, the western side of cuba hasn't shown much propensity to knock back systems...the models struggling with the ridge is also not a surprise but the euro being so far right is odd but its the euro and needs to be taken very seriously

[SFLcane]

Gfs trended westward no surprise it’s racing at 25 mph tough to gain any latitude. Would not surprise me if this stays in the Caribbean. With that forward speed good luck gaining much organization.

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone know what MB the euro initialized at? It’s Hard to tell on tropical tidbits but it looks like it’s a little north of the nhc position and at 8pm tonight it has a 1009mb system which doesn’t seem to add up since the NHC has it at 1006mb right and forecasts gradual strengthening during the day…

[SFLcane]

I think this one probably has Eastern Gulf of Mexico written on it.

[Blown Away]

I think this one probably has Eastern Gulf of Mexico written on it.

Agree, but until the Euro and TVCN consensus stop showing a complete recurve off the CONUS I'm going with Fl Peninsula E to Bahamas...

[Bigdan75]

Good morning I'm new here just wanted to say hi and introduce myself great site!!

[eastcoastFL]

I think this one probably has Eastern Gulf of Mexico written on it.

Agree, but until the Euro and TVCN consensus stop showing a complete recurve off the CONUS I'm going with Fl Peninsula E to Bahamas...

That’s reasonable. Her forward speed over the next few days will be a big factor in that.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF 2am tomorrow 995mb 60 kt and it gains a lot of latitude today.