ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[robbielyn]

I think July 3rd is a record for sighting the first “it won’t be anything more than a normal afternoon thunderstorm in Florida” post

i’m sure my post sounded that way but my point wasn’t that it is a regular thunderstorm as much as floridians just don’t stay glued to storm2k when a storm is weakening as we are used to tropical storms and while they are definitely more than a thunderstorm they aren’t in the same category as a full blown hurricane so people will come back if it restrengthen but right now people feel less threatened by a tropical storm than they do a hurricane. it’s just a fact.

[AutoPenalti]

Recon showing a sharp axis, I guess this is an open wave?

[cane5]

Elsa is caught between 2 high pressure systems keeping the window fairly tight all through her existence. I just wonder why there is never any postings about this. And little also in the way of traugh influences. Can anyone provide a update please ?

[psyclone]

I think July 3rd is a record for sighting the first “it won’t be anything more than a normal afternoon thunderstorm in Florida” post

It also stands a decent chance of being accurate. There's a training firehose of convection streaming off the gulf into the nature coast. their weather today is likely worse than whatever happens on tuesday..

[psyclone]

Recon showing a sharp axis, I guess this is an open wave?

Can we retreat back to PTC?

[Frank P]

With those HT firing off just north of the system center it doesn’t appear to be weakening to me per the vis sat long loop images… if it maintains its current forward movement the core should completely miss Haiti.. after that who knows…

[AnnularCane]

No shame in being wrong, everybody is wrong about something from time to time, and these storms have a tendency to do the unexpected, some more than others. Right now I don't think anything she does will surprise me anymore (but who knows?).

[eastcoastFL]

The subtropical ridge might have been a blessing and a curse. It was a curse, for it forced Elsa into warmer waters, making intensification easier. It was a blessing, for it caused Elsa to move quickly, limiting its potential.

It was a blessing for PR DR and Haiti so far. They dodged a bullet for the most part

[Blown Away]

Clearly see the LLC chugging WNW with the W half exposed.

[Steve H.]

No, there’s actually a circulation showing up on satellite images that gets exposed from time to time when she outruns the convection.

[eastcoastFL]

Interesting wind pattern SSW of Elsa. Looks like a trof axis. SSW to the east, NNE to the west. No west winds.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa6.JPG

That area is being 'absorbed' by the rest of the convection....not sure if it will or can disrupt the circulation.

Also another vortex or some odd feature at the tip of the Haitian peninsula...my guess is the terrain is cause some little vortices.

Jrd, do you expect watches to go up for your area in the next advisory?

[robbielyn]

I think July 3rd is a record for sighting the first “it won’t be anything more than a normal afternoon thunderstorm in Florida” post

It also stands a decent chance of being accurate. There's a training firehose of convection streaming off the gulf into the nature coast. their weather today is likely worse than whatever happens on tuesday..

that’s what i am experiencing right now in brooksville. hernando county. all day long. probably getting 7 inches today. i want to eat out but can’t get to my car unless i’m drenched by the time i get there.

[DestinHurricane]

ton of lightning to the NW right now

[Jr0d]

Recon showing a sharp axis, I guess this is an open wave?

That 'axis' is west and a little south of the CoC....and in the past hour or so has been absorbed by the rest of the convection.

[ElectricStorm]

I think July 3rd is a record for sighting the first “it won’t be anything more than a normal afternoon thunderstorm in Florida” post

It also stands a decent chance of being accurate. There's a training firehose of convection streaming off the gulf into the nature coast. their weather today is likely worse than whatever happens on tuesday..

that’s what i am experiencing right now in brooksville. hernando county. all day long. probably getting 7 inches today. i want to eat out but can’t get to my car unless i’m drenched by the time i get there.

Regardless of how strong it comes in, whatever rainfall Elsa brings is just going to add to however much you guys get now. Flooding will likely be a big issue with this.

[eastcoastFL]

Flooding rain is really my only concern. I do not want to have to clean my garage so I can put both cars in there. I have Monday off and I was hoping to be at the beach but that's not looking too good.

[Vdogg]

What happened here, why is everyone talking about it as if its dead now? Old LLC is way off to the north but its reforming under the circulation and is evidently not heading NW or NNW.

They do this every year with every storm. The instant that there's 30 continuous seconds of weakening people declare it dead and sound the all clear. I don't understand why that is, but it gets annoying at times. Stick with the major Mets and the NHC. Don't take the dramatic prognostications as indicative of what is actually going to happen.

Who's sounding the all clear? I don't understand this. Both the GFS and Euro show this re-strengthening to some extent in the gulf after getting ripped apart. I don't see anyone calling all clear?

There were some posts earlier saying it was going to dissipate into a wave or just be a naked swirl, which is what the comment I was replying to was referring to. While not specifically saying the words "all clear", when you say that all a storm is going to do is dissipate into a wave that's the impression people can get.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1411406293114437632

[typhoonty]

Center nearly fully exposed again. VERY interesting winds WSW of the main center. Winds out of the ENE southwest of Ella's center and it looks like recon found another weak center. Less than 24 hours before Elsa's center moves over Cuba, where it may spend 24 hours inland (and weakening. I still doubt it will have TS winds as it emerges off the coast of Cuba on Monday, but there could be some 35kt winds in the FL Straits to its north and northeast. Good gradient there. I'm predicting about 45 kts at landfall Tuesday afternoon. Could be weaker, as models are indicating.

I appreciate wxman57's analysis, even though he can be bearish sometimes. It's definitely a philosophy that generates respect. There's a very select few times where I've seen wxman57 be bullish on a storm. Pretty sure he was with Irma and Dorian if memory serves. The entire board knows that when wxman57 is bullish, you need to take the storm seriously. He probably has the lowest false alarm rate of anyone on here due to his conservative nature. He's not infallible, and no one is in this sphere, but I deeply respect his forecast philosophy. I enjoy the wealth of knowledge of the board and contrasting opinions of knowledgeable people with different levels of aggressiveness in forecasting.

When I finish my met degree at FSU, I hope to develop a philosophy as consistent as wxman57's. He doesn't change his forecasting process due to peer pressure, that's admirable for anyone.

[kevin]

Center nearly fully exposed again. VERY interesting winds WSW of the main center. Winds out of the ENE southwest of Ella's center and it looks like recon found another weak center. Less than 24 hours before Elsa's center moves over Cuba, where it may spend 24 hours inland (and weakening. I still doubt it will have TS winds as it emerges off the coast of Cuba on Monday, but there could be some 35kt winds in the FL Straits to its north and northeast. Good gradient there. I'm predicting about 45 kts at landfall Tuesday afternoon. Could be weaker, as models are indicating.

I appreciate wxman57's analysis, even though he can be bearish sometimes. It's definitely a philosophy that generates respect. There's a very select few times where I've seen wxman57 be bullish on a storm. Pretty sure he was with Irma and Dorian if memory serves. The entire board knows that when wxman57 is bullish, you need to take the storm seriously. He probably has the lowest false alarm rate of anyone on here due to his conservative nature. He's not infallible, and no one is in this sphere, but I deeply respect his forecast philosophy. I enjoy the wealth of knowledge of the board and contrasting opinions of knowledgeable people with different levels of aggressiveness in forecasting.

When I finish my met degree at FSU, I hope to develop a philosophy as consistent as wxman57's. He doesn't change his forecasting process due to peer pressure, that's admirable for anyone.

Indeed, if wxman57 is ever bullish on a hurricane that's the perfect sign that everyone in the cone should start to pack their things and leave.