ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Latest pass is almost 2mb lower than the previous pass about an hour ago.

Clearly the weakening trend is over....

As I.posted before, pressure dropping, convection starting to close off the LLC, forward speed appears to be slowing, in a few hours it will be far enough east to no.longer being 'choked' by Hispaniola mountains.

Not a pretty looking system, but much looking much better than 5 hours ago.

All indications point to Elsa strengthening.....

[jlauderdal]

This board is tenacious considering anyone west of 83 is on the sidelines, this feels more like a late October situation than July when its only people south of 30 in the game

First MDR storm of the season, given the potential Florida threat I'm shocked it isn't busier.

tropical storms don’t phase us. we are experiencing today, very heavy rainfall just like a tropical storm with some gust winds and thunder. if weatherman57 is right, 55 mph on tuesday, why would they waste their holiday glued to the thread? there aren’t any current impacts today and unless it strengthens into a strong t.s. or hurricane after cuba there will be minimal impacts on tuesday although more will be on here after it crosses cuba as minimal impacts will then be current. if it strengthens back into a hurricane, trust me, the board will be hot again. they’ll be on here.

you have a legit shot of having the eyewall go through your area, rush your preperations to completion

[aspen]

Seems like the new convective burst has tugged the center and caused a north wobble.

I think that is an optical illusion caused by the new convective burst to the N wrapping in. If you look close I don't think it wobbled.

I was basing this off of the recon path…and yeah it hasn’t wobbled. Recon just went a little too north. The LLC has barely gained any longitude.

[DestinHurricane]

Seems like the new convective burst has tugged the center and caused a north wobble.

I think that is an optical illusion caused by the new convective burst to the N wrapping in. If you look close I don't think it wobbled.

I was basing this off of the recon path…and yeah it hasn’t wobbled. Recon just went a little too north. The LLC has barely gained any longitude.

I think you mean latitude, right?

[AlphaToOmega]

Remember that storms can intensify while very close to the Greater Antilles

[Hypercane_Kyle]

tropical storms don’t phase us. we are experiencing today, very heavy rainfall just like a tropical storm with some gust winds and thunder. if weatherman57 is right, 55 mph on tuesday, why would they waste their holiday glued to the thread? there aren’t any current impacts today and unless it strengthens into a strong t.s. or hurricane after cuba there will be minimal impacts on tuesday although more will be on here after it crosses cuba as minimal impacts will then be current. if it strengthens back into a hurricane, trust me, the board will be hot again. they’ll be on here.

True. Tropical storms aren't that big of a deal for us, especially a fast moving one like Elsa. Yes, they can be deadly in their own right with rainfall and tornadoes, but SFL gets hit by a tropical storm at least once a year.

Y'all are getting a little too far ahead of yourselves assuming it will be a tropical storm

I'm not saying it's impossible Elsa could regain hurricane status in the Gulf, but it's looking improbable at this time. I agree with wxman57's forecast, although I'm personally thinking 35 knots. Similar impacts to Ernesto in 2006.

[robbielyn]

Latest pass is almost 2mb lower than the previous pass about an hour ago.

Clearly the weakening trend is over....

As I.posted before, pressure dropping, convection starting to close off the LLC, forward speed appears to be slowing, in a few hours it will be far enough east to no.longer being 'choked' by Hispaniola mountains.

Not a pretty looking system, but much looking much better than 5 hours ago.

All indications point to Elsa strengthening.....

no one is letting our guard down and it could restrengthen then but right now we aren’t concerned we should already be prepared and hv an evacuation route should the conditions call for it, right now we are following the nhc, and it says a storm and they will give us plenty of notice if we need to start getting concerned. we don’t doubt it can restrengthen but we are in monitor mode right now that’s all. there’s not a lot to talk about hence the quietness.

[BYG Jacob]

True. Tropical storms aren't that big of a deal for us, especially a fast moving one like Elsa. Yes, they can be deadly in their own right with rainfall and tornadoes, but SFL gets hit by a tropical storm at least once a year.

Y'all are getting a little too far ahead of yourselves assuming it will be a tropical storm

I'm not saying it's impossible Elsa could regain hurricane status in the Gulf, but it's looking improbable at this time. I agree with wxman57's forecast, although I'm personally thinking 35 knots. Similar impacts to Ernesto in 2006.

Elsa's strength will depend entirely upon land interaction (or lack thereof) over the next 36 hours. Assuming minor impacts is not wise in the tropics.

[eastcoastFL]

This board is tenacious considering anyone west of 83 is on the sidelines, this feels more like a late October situation than July when its only people south of 30 in the game

First MDR storm of the season, given the potential Florida threat I'm shocked it isn't busier.

tropical storms don’t phase us. we are experiencing today, very heavy rainfall just like a tropical storm with some gust winds and thunder. if weatherman57 is right, 55 mph on tuesday, why would they waste their holiday glued to the thread? there aren’t any current impacts today and unless it strengthens into a strong t.s. or hurricane after cuba there will be minimal impacts on tuesday although more will be on here after it crosses cuba as minimal impacts will then be current. if it strengthens back into a hurricane, trust me, the board will be hot again. they’ll be on here.

I think the worst flooding I've ever witnessed personally was during a tropical storm in 2008. I'm not in a flood zone but the St. Lucie sheriff's were rescuing people on my street in boats. I think 12 people in Alabama died last month from TS claudette mainly because they underestimated it and were driving during the storm

[InfernoFlameCat]

[Convection has wrapped around the center. Low lying convection but convection nonetheless. Ez to see on visible.

[aspen]

I think that is an optical illusion caused by the new convective burst to the N wrapping in. If you look close I don't think it wobbled.

I was basing this off of the recon path…and yeah it hasn’t wobbled. Recon just went a little too north. The LLC has barely gained any longitude.

I think you mean latitude, right?

Yes, I don't know why I put longitude lol

Speaking of latitude, I marked up the latest recon graphic following the plane's second pass, with the Haitian peninsula marked in yellow. If Elsa continues on this path as indicated by the two center fixes, it will avoid landfall in Haiti. Not sure about the heel of Cuba, though.

[StPeteMike]

EURO has my area with roughly 7 inches of rain by Thursday, which some areas will likely have 10+ by then. If the storm goes west of us still, also will have the threat of tornadoes and minor storm surge in top of the wind.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Y'all are getting a little too far ahead of yourselves assuming it will be a tropical storm

I'm not saying it's impossible Elsa could regain hurricane status in the Gulf, but it's looking improbable at this time. I agree with wxman57's forecast, although I'm personally thinking 35 knots. Similar impacts to Ernesto in 2006.

Elsa's strength will depend entirely upon land interaction (or lack thereof) over the next 36 hours. Assuming minor impacts is not wise in the tropics.

I know that. I'm not "assuming" anything, as nothing I said was indicative of certainty. It's my personal opinion Elsa will not regain hurricane status in the Gulf of Mexico.

I have been wrong many times and will be wrong many more times. I am okay with this. Part of the fun of tracking these systems is that, when I'm wrong, I gain the opportunity to learn from it.

[wxman57]

Interesting wind pattern SSW of Elsa. Looks like a trof axis. SSW to the east, NNE to the west. No west winds.

[ObsessedMiami]

I think July 3rd is a record for sighting the first “it won’t be anything more than a normal afternoon thunderstorm in Florida” post

[AlphaToOmega]

The subtropical ridge might have been a blessing and a curse. It was a curse, for it forced Elsa into warmer waters, making intensification easier. It was a blessing, for it caused Elsa to move quickly, limiting its potential.

[Category6]

Is it just me or is it starting to slow down just a bit?

[Jr0d]

Interesting wind pattern SSW of Elsa. Looks like a trof axis. SSW to the east, NNE to the west. No west winds.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa6.JPG

That area is being 'absorbed' by the rest of the convection....not sure if it will or can disrupt the circulation.

Also another vortex or some odd feature at the tip of the Haitian peninsula...my guess is the terrain is cause some little vortices.

[loon]

I think July 3rd is a record for sighting the first “it won’t be anything more than a normal afternoon thunderstorm in Florida” post

heh, after a year and a half of pandemic.. I'll take a little "back to normal storm2k board drama" Nature is healing.

[hurricane2025]

She’s looking pretty bad on radar right now. So glad it’s not August