ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Given the liklihood of the broad circ in the southern BOC washing out pretty quick once an LLC takes hold farther east I don't think we will see much a NW motion any longer. this puts Alabama and FLorida Panhandle into play.

add in the center getting pulled/reforming at any moment farther east/NE and panhandle landfall comes into view.

I'm on the panhandle, and I don't see that happening with this system. There's too much of a high pressure push from the east and southeast.
https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/index.p ... s=3&loop=1

GFS at 500mb shows the high pressure building in (darker reds for those who don't look at upper steering)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 61712&fh=6

There may be some slightly eastern reformations, but the trajectory at/near landfall (36-42 hours) appears to be somewhere in the range of North to North-Northeast. I agree with wx57 in that maybe an adjustment toward Terrebonne Bay or even Grand Isle could be where the center comes in (vs. Cameron/Vermilion Parishes in SWLA which it looked like earlier in the week). But certainly the farther east it landfalls matters for who gets the bulk of the rainfall which is the main threat with 92L. And the Panhandle might come into play for that. If the 3km NAM is right (vs. 12km and FV3-Hi-res) and we get at tightening low, there could be squalls closer to the center as well. So that would matter for those folks.

Either way, I don't see landfall east of 90.5. I'll be the first one to say I was wrong if I am.

I agree. I think this is headed for miss/Alabama

[cajungal]

Leaving for Orange Beach Sunday morning from Thibodaux area (hour SW of New Orleans) Hoping the worse of the weather will be over for the 4 hour drive.

Hoping you have a nice trip. They are calling for 5 to 8 inches of rain between tomorrow night and Monday in the coastal areas of Alabama. Hopefully you get some breaks in there to enjoy your trip.

We will be there an entire week til the 27th. Was just concerned about 4 hour drive Sunday morning in horrible weather

[Steve]

Leaving for Orange Beach Sunday morning from Thibodaux area (hour SW of New Orleans) Hoping the worse of the weather will be over for the 4 hour drive.

Hoping you have a nice trip. They are calling for 5 to 8 inches of rain between tomorrow night and Monday in the coastal areas of Alabama. Hopefully you get some breaks in there to enjoy your trip.

We will be there an entire week til the 27th. Was just concerned about 4 hour drive Sunday morning in horrible weather

I think the bulk of 92L's rain will be way out front of that. But we also have a front coming down, so probably rain through middle next week especially if the front washes out. You may have to plan your days as you go. Have a great vacation though.

[Aric Dunn]

if this just keeps sitting and spinning and takes another 24 hour to consolidate. the trough will be approaching and well.. off to FLorida it is.. so it better do something soon or any NHC forecast this afternoon is going to be a huge bust

[cycloneye]

There they go!!

[cycloneye]

PTC at 4 PM CDT.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become a little
better organized today. This system is expected to move generally
northward, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to
form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday.
A tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of
the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, and Potential Tropical
Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated on this system at 4 PM
CDT (2100 UTC). An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft
is en route to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.

Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and
southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Heavy rains will
also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.
Please consult products from your local meteorological service for
more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Astromanía]

What is this thing doing?

[sunnyday]

Aric,
You mentioned that if the storm sits and spins for 24 hours, it could go to Florida. What part of Florida do you think might be affected?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,
You mentioned that if the storm sits and spins for 24 hours, it could go to Florida. What part of Florida do you think might be affected?

Panhandle- ish area

[Jr0d]

I doubt the center will make landfall further east that Louisiana, however with all the activity on the east side Mississippi, Alabama and Florida's panhandle will get the brunt of the activity. The strongest winds may be well east of the center so I would not be surprised if the tropical storm warning extends to the panhandle of Florida.

[CrazyC83]

I would definitely argue for a subtropical classification. The activity is well to the east of the center and models look to keep it that way. Most of the weather should be well to the east of the landfall point.

[sunnyday]

Thank you for the information, Aric.

[Stormybajan]

Unless 92L can magically conjure up some convection on the eastern side....its looking very subtropical like to me, most likely SD 3 at 8

[aspen]

I can’t tell where the CoC is or is forming. It’s just too broad.

[Aric Dunn]

I am glad they are going to check the convection to the east... see if there are any vort maxes out there farther east that may take over.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2021061718, , BEST, 0, 225N, 924W, 25, 1008, LO

[wxman57]

I think it's too early to find a well-defined LLC. I do know that in about 99.99999% of cases when a northward moving storm in the Gulf is encountering westerly shear, the center moves inland farther east and faster than what the models are indicating. I would not be surprised at all if the weak center tracks near the mouth of the Mississippi on its way to MS/AL. All significant weather well east of the center.

I need to go take my temperature, I may be sick. I'm sort of in agreement with Aric for the first time ever...

[captainbarbossa19]

I would definitely argue for a subtropical classification. The activity is well to the east of the center and models look to keep it that way. Most of the weather should be well to the east of the landfall point.

I am confused. I thought for subtropical classification, water temperatures have to be in a certain range? The Gulf is all above 80 degrees F.

[DestinHurricane]

I expect landfall somewhere on MS/AL or western FL panhandle as very weak Tropical Storm or Depression, though NHC won't downgrade it to a depression I'm certain when it's approaching land. It's gonna get sheared so bad there may not hardly be any rain to the west of center. I don't know if TS force winds will be reported at any land station either. Rain is the big threat here, east of center.

[ronjon]

I think it's too early to find a well-defined LLC. I do know that in about 99.99999% of cases when a northward moving storm in the Gulf is encountering westerly shear, the center moves inland farther east and faster than what the models are indicating. I would not be surprised at all if the weak center tracks near the mouth of the Mississippi on its way to MS/AL. All significant weather well east of the center.

I need to go take my temperature, I may be sick. I'm sort of in agreement with Aric for the first time ever...

Agreed...how many times in the past have we seen these weak highly sheared systems track to the east as the center reforms or gets pulled under the convection. Maybe look for signs of it in the short term mesoscale models as sometimes they seem to have a better handle on these types of environments. Wxman57 agreeing with Aric? Have we entered an alternate universe?