EPAC: NORA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage since yesterday
and continue to show signs of organization in association with a low
pressure system located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions remain conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph this week, remaining
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 242357
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)

B. 24/2330Z

C. 13.0N

D. 97.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CIRCULAR CLOUD LINES AROUND A LLCC THAT IS LESS THAN 1.25
DEGREES FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 1.5 USING THE
SHEAR PATTERN. THE MET AND PT AGREE AND ARE ALSO EQUAL TO 1.5. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT LLCC POSITION IN
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952021 08/25/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 67 75 78 78 77 73 70 67 65 62 60
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 67 75 78 78 77 73 70 67 65 62 60
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 45 51 57 60 62 62 62 62 60 56 51 46
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 21 20 19 19 15 14 14 16 13 4 6 7 6 11 9 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -5 -1 -1 -6 -5 -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 1
SHEAR DIR 74 60 59 65 56 59 46 59 82 70 104 104 108 143 144 158 166
SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.1 28.0 27.1 26.2 25.5 25.1 24.7
POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 154 152 150 150 149 145 147 150 145 144 134 124 117 113 109
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 6 4 5 4 6 5 6 4 4 2 2 1 0
700-500 MB RH 88 89 90 87 88 86 85 80 75 73 72 67 61 59 55 52 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 15 16 21 22 22 20 20 18 16 16 16 15 14
850 MB ENV VOR 41 61 66 76 85 74 99 88 92 99 120 92 76 49 43 28 30
200 MB DIV 91 118 120 148 146 122 103 88 94 93 60 17 32 10 -11 -4 -25
700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 -2 -7 -3 -3 0 5 -5 -3 -2 0 0 1 0 1
LAND (KM) 325 349 378 383 390 395 415 457 438 417 367 249 306 303 295 391 494
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 97.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 8 8 10 9 8 8 6 6 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 19 22 19 17 15 16 14 12 19 20 11 16 5 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 32. 32. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 13. 14. 13. 11. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 37. 45. 48. 48. 47. 43. 40. 37. 35. 32. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 97.2

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 08/25/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.82 5.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -2.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -4.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5%
Logistic: 0.9% 8.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5% 5.1% 23.7% 17.0%
Bayesian: 0.4% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 12.3%
Consensus: 0.4% 10.8% 6.3% 0.4% 0.2% 1.9% 8.2% 15.6%
DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 8.0% 14.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 08/25/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS shifts east, brings a hurricane into Baja California Sur.

[Kingarabian]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952021 08/25/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 67 75 78 78 77 73 70 67 65 62 60
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 67 75 78 78 77 73 70 67 65 62 60
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 45 51 57 60 62 62 62 62 60 56 51 46
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 21 20 19 19 15 14 14 16 13 4 6 7 6 11 9 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -5 -1 -1 -6 -5 -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 1
SHEAR DIR 74 60 59 65 56 59 46 59 82 70 104 104 108 143 144 158 166
SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.1 28.0 27.1 26.2 25.5 25.1 24.7
POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 154 152 150 150 149 145 147 150 145 144 134 124 117 113 109
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 6 4 5 4 6 5 6 4 4 2 2 1 0
700-500 MB RH 88 89 90 87 88 86 85 80 75 73 72 67 61 59 55 52 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 15 16 21 22 22 20 20 18 16 16 16 15 14
850 MB ENV VOR 41 61 66 76 85 74 99 88 92 99 120 92 76 49 43 28 30
200 MB DIV 91 118 120 148 146 122 103 88 94 93 60 17 32 10 -11 -4 -25
700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 -2 -7 -3 -3 0 5 -5 -3 -2 0 0 1 0 1
LAND (KM) 325 349 378 383 390 395 415 457 438 417 367 249 306 303 295 391 494
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 97.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 8 8 10 9 8 8 6 6 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 19 22 19 17 15 16 14 12 19 20 11 16 5 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 32. 32. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 13. 14. 13. 11. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 37. 45. 48. 48. 47. 43. 40. 37. 35. 32. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 97.2

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 08/25/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.82 5.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -2.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -4.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5%
Logistic: 0.9% 8.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5% 5.1% 23.7% 17.0%
Bayesian: 0.4% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 12.3%
Consensus: 0.4% 10.8% 6.3% 0.4% 0.2% 1.9% 8.2% 15.6%
DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 8.0% 14.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 08/25/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952021 08/25/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 67 75 78 78 77 73 70 67 65 62 60
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 67 75 78 78 77 73 70 67 65 62 60
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 45 51 57 60 62 62 62 62 60 56 51 46
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 21 20 19 19 15 14 14 16 13 4 6 7 6 11 9 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -5 -1 -1 -6 -5 -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 1
SHEAR DIR 74 60 59 65 56 59 46 59 82 70 104 104 108 143 144 158 166
SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.1 28.0 27.1 26.2 25.5 25.1 24.7
POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 154 152 150 150 149 145 147 150 145 144 134 124 117 113 109
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 6 4 5 4 6 5 6 4 4 2 2 1 0
700-500 MB RH 88 89 90 87 88 86 85 80 75 73 72 67 61 59 55 52 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 15 16 21 22 22 20 20 18 16 16 16 15 14
850 MB ENV VOR 41 61 66 76 85 74 99 88 92 99 120 92 76 49 43 28 30
200 MB DIV 91 118 120 148 146 122 103 88 94 93 60 17 32 10 -11 -4 -25
700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 -2 -7 -3 -3 0 5 -5 -3 -2 0 0 1 0 1
LAND (KM) 325 349 378 383 390 395 415 457 438 417 367 249 306 303 295 391 494
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 97.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 8 8 10 9 8 8 6 6 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 19 22 19 17 15 16 14 12 19 20 11 16 5 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 32. 32. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 13. 14. 13. 11. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 37. 45. 48. 48. 47. 43. 40. 37. 35. 32. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 97.2

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952021 INVEST 08/25/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.82 5.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -2.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -4.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5%
Logistic: 0.9% 8.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5% 5.1% 23.7% 17.0%
Bayesian: 0.4% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 12.3%
Consensus: 0.4% 10.8% 6.3% 0.4% 0.2% 1.9% 8.2% 15.6%
DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 8.0% 14.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952021 INVEST 08/25/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

SHIPS is broken this year. Deepens this despite 20kts+ of easterly shear.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 250611
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)

B. 25/0530Z

C. 13.1N

D. 98.7W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 WHITE BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE LLCC RESULTING
IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS EQUAL TO 1.5 AND THE PT AGREES WITH THE DT
AND IS ALSO EQUAL TO 2.0. PERSISTENT CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE
LLCC IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Yellow Evan]

Shower and thunderstorms are becoming better organized in
association with a low pressure area located a couple hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico. However, recent satellite
wind data indicate that the system does not currently have a
well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions remain
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so. The system is forecast
to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph this week,
remaining offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 25 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Recent satellite-derived wind data suggest that the center of a low
pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico, is becoming better defined, and the system is already
producing winds near tropical-storm strength. In addition, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming
better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical storm is
expected to form later today or tonight while moving toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph, offshore of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

Not classifiable and looked better yesterday.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 251807
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)

B. 25/1730Z

C. 12.1N

D. 99.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A CENTER NEAR A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.0
USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON A SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TREND. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE
CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[cycloneye]

14E FOURTEEN 210825 1800 11.6N 99.1W EPAC 30 1005

[MarioProtVI]

14E FOURTEEN 210825 1800 11.6N 99.1W EPAC 30 1005

Objectively the worst call IMO I have seen them make since Colin. No way this is a TD, and ASCAT shows a broad monsoon trough. Not a TC in my book

[Yellow Evan]

This either should have been declared last night or not declared.

[Sciencerocks]

[captainbarbossa19]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7470/wbWof9.gif

Well, this is a mess.

[Kingarabian]

Might be two vort's.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 99.4W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of the tropical depression. Watches may be required for a
portion of the coast on Thursday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 99.4
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13
km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight,
followed by a turn toward the northwest on Friday and
north-northwest on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
the system is expected to pass near but offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico Friday and Saturday and then approach
the southern portion of Baja California Sur later in the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and then reach
hurricane intensity over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to produce
heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca,
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco beginning Friday.
Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend
with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches possible. As a result,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin
affecting the southern coast of Mexico tonight and on Thursday
and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

Scatterometer data from a few hours ago revealed that a small but
sufficiently well-defined circulation has formed on the western end
of a broader circulation which lies a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Although the system is still in its
formative stages and banding features are not readily apparent,
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have been a consensus T2.0/30 kt
since this morning. The system is therefore now designated as a
30-kt tropical depression, although the scatterometer data
suggested that its winds are already very near tropical storm force.

The depression's surface center apparently formed a little south
of the vorticity maximum we have been tracking over the past day or
so. Therefore, the initial motion is very uncertain but is
estimated to be westward, or 275/7 kt. The evolution of the
steering pattern is fairly consistent among the models. A strong
mid-tropospheric high over the U.S. Southern Plains is forecast to
weaken over the next couple of days, causing the depression to turn
from a westward motion now, to a west-northwest motion tonight, to a
northwest and north-northwest motion by Friday and Saturday. On
this track, most of the models bring the center of the system near
but still offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. The GFS has
been a notable exception, bringing the system inland over
southwestern Mexico in about 3 days. However, that model shows a
complex interaction with multiple low-level centers that
consolidate farther east, and most of the GEFS ensemble members
remain offshore with the other deterministic models. As a result,
this first NHC official forecast also shows a track remaining
offshore and is a little to the left of the HCCA and TVCE consensus
aids.

Moderate easterly to northeasterly shear is likely to continue over
the depression for the next day or so, which would temper any fast
strengthening in the short term. Still, the system will be moving
over warm waters of 28-29 degrees Celsius over the next few days,
and lower shear in 2-3 days should allow it to strengthen to a
hurricane by the weekend as it passes near the southwestern coast
of Mexico and approaches the southern part of the Baja California
peninsula. The intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement
during the first 2 days, but there is much more spread after that
time, likely related to the degree of land interaction. The NHC
intensity forecast is near the consensus aids during the first 3
days and then a little bit above them on days 4 and 5, lying
between the HWRF and HMON models at those forecast times.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm
tonight and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday. While the
core of the storm is currently expected to remain offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall,
possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect
portions of that area over the next several days.

2. The system is expected to pass near the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane Sunday and Monday, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area early next week. Given the
uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests in
this area should monitor the progress of this system and updates to
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 11.7N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 12.8N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 14.7N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 16.2N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.0N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 22.7N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Kingarabian]

Low end hurricane is the best call here.

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure why the NHC is going west of the guidance given how every storm in the area of the world goes east of the initial model consensus.