EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972021 07/16/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 59 68 76 75 71 68 64 60 56 52 47
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 59 68 76 75 71 68 64 60 56 52 47
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 31 35 38 41 40 37 35 34 33 32 30 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 13 12 8 7 6 2 2 11 11 7 3 5 2 6 6 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 2 7 2 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -1
SHEAR DIR 25 20 347 331 346 16 136 15 329 334 346 347 15 234 288 277 252
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.1 28.3 27.0 26.4 25.3 24.8 25.1 24.5 25.0 23.6 24.2 23.7
POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 156 155 155 146 148 135 128 117 112 115 108 113 98 105 100
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 3 3
700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 77 74 74 73 69 69 65 60 54 50 47 44 41 40
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 13 14 15 20 22 27 27 26 25 24 23 23 22 19
850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 8 4 -1 -14 5 12 19 41 64 84 96 98 85 79 56
200 MB DIV 89 79 70 51 55 82 101 87 17 -2 0 -2 1 -27 9 14 -4
700-850 TADV 6 2 -2 0 0 -6 -5 -14 -16 -16 -5 -3 -3 -1 4 4 6
LAND (KM) 481 485 518 587 690 767 867 1019 1152 1345 1554 1750 1953 2133 2144 1924 1675
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 103.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 16 19 17 16 14 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 11 9 9 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 20 18 15 14 13 9 22 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. 27. 26. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 9. 13. 21. 22. 21. 18. 15. 13. 11. 9. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 34. 43. 51. 50. 46. 43. 39. 35. 31. 27. 22.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 103.9

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 07/16/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 3.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.44 2.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 17.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.5% 38.8% 18.4% 10.5% 6.1% 29.9% 35.1% 7.2%
Bayesian: 0.3% 5.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.9% 22.2% 12.5% 3.6% 2.1% 16.1% 17.6% 2.4%
DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% 3.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 07/16/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 161752
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B. 16/1730Z

C. 14.5N

D. 103.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET IS 1.0 BASED
ON A DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico are gradually becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development during the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form tonight or on Saturday and move west-northwestward
to westward at around 15 mph, a few hundred miles offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high..90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B. 16/2330Z

C. 15.5N

D. 105.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT ARE EQUAL
TO 1.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPING SLIGHTLY TREND IN THE LAST 24H. FT IS BASED
ON MET AS THE BANDING FEATURE IS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972021 07/17/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 47 53 64 71 74 74 68 63 57 53 50 46 42 37
V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 47 53 64 71 74 74 68 63 57 53 50 46 42 37
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 48 52 54 52 48 43 40 38 37 35 33 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 11 9 6 4 5 7 9 9 9 4 8 4 7 10 6 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 2 7 4 0 -1 1 -1 3 1 1 2 0
SHEAR DIR 345 337 326 326 348 298 283 299 332 340 2 342 354 337 344 307 285
SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.5 27.3 27.5 26.1 25.4 25.0 24.2 24.4 24.7 24.5 23.3 23.7 23.3
POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 155 155 150 137 139 125 118 113 105 107 111 108 95 100 96
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 5 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4
700-500 MB RH 79 76 76 73 72 72 69 66 64 62 58 57 50 48 42 41 40
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 15 15 18 21 24 26 25 24 22 21 20 19 18 15
850 MB ENV VOR 23 12 10 7 0 -2 1 0 19 28 44 67 76 75 60 46 20
200 MB DIV 99 77 54 49 47 78 84 45 30 7 -27 1 2 -10 -3 0 -24
700-850 TADV 7 1 0 -2 -7 -8 -11 -21 -7 -7 0 0 2 1 6 1 7
LAND (KM) 375 421 493 569 620 658 775 898 1083 1265 1431 1612 1838 2036 2146 1905 1643
LAT (DEG N) 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 105.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 14 12 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 12 12 11 10 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 21 15 12 12 9 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 23. 23. 22. 21. 19. 18. 16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 18. 16. 13. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 23. 34. 41. 44. 44. 38. 33. 27. 23. 20. 16. 12. 7.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 105.3

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 07/17/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 3.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 4.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 28.3% 21.4% 20.1% 0.0% 20.2% 26.8% 0.0%
Logistic: 7.2% 32.8% 16.5% 10.2% 4.3% 22.8% 12.8% 3.3%
Bayesian: 0.9% 7.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 6.3% 22.8% 13.6% 10.5% 1.5% 14.5% 13.2% 1.1%
DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 14.0% 13.0% 2.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 07/17/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Almost classifiable.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Felicia, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico are gradually becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development over the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form later today and move west-northwestward to
westward at around 15 mph, a few hundred miles offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high..90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 170558
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)

B. 17/0530Z

C. 15.8N

D. 108.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...4.5/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET IS
EQUAL TO 2.0 AND PT IS EQUAL TO 2.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPING TREND IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS.FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS AS CHANGE OF 1.0 OVER 6 HOURS
REQUIRES AT LEAST 24 HOURS SINCE INITIAL T1.O AND SYSTEM GREATER THAN
T1.5 6 HOURS AGO.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972021 07/17/21 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 45 51 59 68 73 72 67 62 59 55 51 47 44 41
V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 45 51 59 68 73 72 67 62 59 55 51 47 44 41
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 47 51 52 49 46 43 41 41 39 37 34 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 4 7 1 2 5 6 7 7 10 5 11 9 2 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -1 1 4 7 3 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 6 2
SHEAR DIR 5 354 324 53 46 185 307 321 9 2 21 9 2 340 8 48 269
SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.9 26.4 26.0 25.1 25.0 25.2 24.8 25.3 24.6 25.0 24.6 24.6
POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 152 146 142 144 129 125 115 113 115 111 116 109 113 111 112
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5
700-500 MB RH 76 76 73 71 70 68 66 64 61 57 52 49 45 42 40 40 38
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 16 18 20 24 25 24 23 22 22 20 20 18 15 13
850 MB ENV VOR 13 7 4 -5 -9 0 14 19 50 65 63 77 84 76 67 53 44
200 MB DIV 60 57 32 34 60 70 36 2 9 -22 -20 -15 -30 -30 -18 -23 -31
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -10 -14 -6 -15 -7 -11 -5 -8 -4 -1 1 4 9 14
LAND (KM) 526 595 684 688 701 829 995 1174 1414 1606 1803 1994 2203 2126 1946 1669 1277
LAT (DEG N) 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 108.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 11 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 11 11 9 11 16 17
HEAT CONTENT 15 13 11 8 6 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. 22. 21. 19. 19. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 18. 17. 15. 13. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 21. 29. 38. 43. 42. 37. 32. 29. 25. 21. 17. 14. 11.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 108.0

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972021 INVEST 07/17/21 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 3.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 5.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 22.7% 19.8% 18.7% 0.0% 19.7% 17.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 7.1% 26.8% 14.4% 8.3% 2.5% 5.6% 0.7% 1.2%
Bayesian: 0.5% 2.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 5.8% 17.4% 11.6% 9.0% 0.9% 8.5% 6.0% 0.4%
DTOPS: 2.0% 17.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 6.0% 11.0% 8.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972021 INVEST 07/17/21 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

100%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico have continued to become better organized over
the past several hours, and a tropical depression is likely forming.
Tropical cyclone advisories will be initiated on this system later
this morning if the recent development trend continues.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
organization over the next several days while the low moves
west-northwestward to westward at around 15 mph, a few hundred miles
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[cycloneye]

We have TD SEVEN-E.

EP, 07, 2021071712, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1084W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, epA72021 to ep072021

[cycloneye]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SEVEN EP072021 07/17/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 46 53 60 63 61 56 52 48 45 42 40 35 30
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 46 53 60 63 61 56 52 48 45 42 40 35 30
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 40 43 42 39 36 33 31 31 30 29 27 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 7 3 7 3 11 12 5 8 6 9 5 5 13 19
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 1 2 5 9 1 -1 1 1 2 -1 1 -1 2 1
SHEAR DIR 358 342 13 46 41 324 336 323 343 356 359 354 333 326 271 253 265
SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.7 26.2 25.5 24.8 24.5 25.0 24.7 24.1 24.7 24.2 23.8 24.3
POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 152 147 140 142 127 119 112 109 114 110 104 110 105 101 107
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5
700-500 MB RH 75 72 71 70 71 66 62 60 59 55 49 44 44 42 40 39 38
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 18 20 21 24 25 24 22 21 19 18 17 16 13 11
850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 -4 -9 -6 -8 -4 11 26 50 65 70 78 72 61 40 20
200 MB DIV 37 37 46 69 64 68 11 20 -10 -4 -35 -29 -23 -15 29 -13 -13
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -8 -11 -9 -14 -18 -10 -6 -4 -6 0 -1 3 4 9 10
LAND (KM) 484 560 618 625 652 767 932 1137 1356 1550 1769 1992 2218 2005 1768 1508 1226
LAT (DEG N) 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 108.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 12 12 13
HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 8 5 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 20. 19. 17. 16. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 10. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. -1. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 23. 30. 33. 31. 26. 22. 18. 15. 12. 10. 5. 0.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.5 108.4

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072021 SEVEN 07/17/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 3.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.72 4.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 18.2% 16.8% 15.9% 0.0% 16.4% 14.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.1% 20.6% 8.6% 4.6% 1.5% 2.6% 0.4% 0.5%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.5% 13.2% 8.5% 6.9% 0.5% 6.3% 5.0% 0.2%
DTOPS: 1.0% 14.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 9.0% 4.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072021 SEVEN 07/17/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
900 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMS WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 109.2W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Seven-E was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude
109.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near
17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
today. A motion toward the west is forecast to begin by late
tonight, with that motion continuing through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the depression will move farther away from mainland
Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072021
900 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring for
the past few days well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico
has finally developed enough organized deep convection and a
well-defined inner-core wind field to be classified as a tropical
depression. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, which is
a little below the consensus T2.5/35-kt classifications from TAFB
and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/15 kt due to the
lack of a well-defined center prior to 1200 UTC. Regardless, the
global and regional models are in exceptionally good agreement on
the cyclone moving west-northwestward today, and then turning toward
the west by late tonight or early Sunday, with that general motion
continuing through 72 hours. Thereafter, the deep-layer subtropical
ridge to the north that will steer the system for the next 5 days is
expected to build slightly southward, nudging the cyclone on a
west-southwestward track at 96 and 120 hours. The NHC forecast track
lies close to but a little slower than the various consensus models
out of respect for the slower GFS and GFS-ensemble models, which are
forecasting a stronger and, thus, more vertically deep tropical
cyclone that should move slower compared to the other weaker models.

During the next 48 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to remain
embedded within an environment conducive for strengthening,
characterized by light wind shear (<10 kt), sea-surface temperatures
(SST) above 27 deg C, and deep moisture through the low- to
mid-levels of the troposphere. Furthermore, a large upper-level low
located just west of the Baja California peninsula, which has been
enhancing the poleward outflows of this disturbance and Hurricane
Felicia farther to the west, is forecast to persist for at least the
next couple of days. All of these favorable conditions argue for at
least modest strengthening during that time, with the only hindering
factor being the large size of the system's circulation. Thereafter,
the cyclone will move over sub-26C SSTs, which should act to cap the
intensification process despite the low vertical wind shear
conditions that are expected to persist. However, the rate of
weakening is forecast to be a little slower than normal due to the
southern half of the circulation remaining over warmer waters, which
will provide warm moist inflow to help fuel thunderstorms near the
inner-core. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the NOAA-HCCA
consensus model through 60 hours, and then is a little above all of
the consensus models thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 16.8N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 17.3N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 17.9N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 18.2N 115.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 18.3N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 18.5N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 18.5N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 18.2N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 17.9N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

Reading the NHC TCD, idk why this wasn’t declared a tropical storm.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 171800
TCSENP

A. 07E (NONAME)

B. 17/1730Z

C. 16.4N

D. 109.4W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. CENTER APPEARS TO
HAVE REFORMED A BIT TO WSW LAST 6 HR. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT IS BASED
ON PT DUE TO PULSING/IRREG CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

17/1334Z 16.6N 109.0W SSMIS


...KONON

Odd reason to base FT off PT.

[cycloneye]

EP, 07, 2021071718, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1095W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GUILLERMO, D