ATL: ELSA - Models

[Deshaunrob17]

I have some doubts the HWRF will be anywhere close to correct. That model seems to always underestimate the effect of systems dealing with fast trades. For instance, last year it blew Gonzalo up into a major hurricane. If I recall correctly it made Don a hurricane in 2017 as well, and made Isaac in 2018 a Category 5 hurricane. I think the ECMWF scenario is more likely to be correct, but it may be a bit stronger than that.

Considering how the Euro shows no development, literally any development would be “a bit stronger” lol

I remember Gonzalo’s HWRF runs. It blew it up into a pinhole Cat 3, and to be fair, the HWRF got the structure right. It failed to recognize the shear in Gonzalo’s path, though. I don’t recall the Don and Issac runs.

Not sure about Don, but I remember Isaac. HWRF model blew it up in to a major hurricane for a few runs. It had a lot of people going because September 2017 had similar hurricanes , it was September the most favorable month and there was a lot of talk about it potentially being another I named hurricane.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

For the 12z HWRF to verify, we need a closed low in ~6 hours.

Going to be tough to do for such a broad system.

[aspen]

For the 12z HWRF to verify, we need a closed low in ~6 hours.

Going to be tough to do for such a broad system.
https://i.imgur.com/dcKsKaL.jpg

I’m willing to give the HWRF the benefit of the doubt because while it shows quick genesis and RI by days 4 and 5, for the first 60-72 hours, the intensity is rather constant. Therefore, 97L could still be a mid 990s system by the time it reaches the LAs just as modeled here, even if it takes longer to close off (like maybe not for another 36-48 hours).

Also, the HWRF could massively tone down its forecast peak in the next run or two as it “calms down” and adjusts to the system’s structure and the conditions ahead of it.

[cheezyWXguy]

For the 12z HWRF to verify, we need a closed low in ~6 hours.

Going to be tough to do for such a broad system.
https://i.imgur.com/dcKsKaL.jpg

I believe the ASCAT posted this morning suggests we already have one

[MississippiWx]

This is already a fairly well organized low. Convection is still scattered though. The low riding nature of it will keep it attached to the monsoon trough to allow further strengthening. 95L seems like a lost cause. This one seems real.

[Ubuntwo]

I have some doubts the HWRF will be anywhere close to correct. That model seems to always underestimate the effect of systems dealing with fast trades. For instance, last year it blew Gonzalo up into a major hurricane. If I recall correctly it made Don a hurricane in 2017 as well, and made Isaac in 2018 a Category 5 hurricane. I think the ECMWF scenario is more likely to be correct, but it may be a bit stronger than that.

Considering how the Euro shows no development, literally any development would be “a bit stronger” lol

I remember Gonzalo’s HWRF runs. It blew it up into a pinhole Cat 3, and to be fair, the HWRF got the structure right. It failed to recognize the shear in Gonzalo’s path, though. I don’t recall the Don and Issac runs.

The Euro does show development into a low-end TS. It's just pretty short-lived.

[Blown Away]

18z...

[aspen]

18z GFS once again has rapid genesis, with TD5 or TS Elsa forming by late tomorrow.

[SFLcane]

18z gfs is coming in stronger before the islands.

[aspen]

All GFS runs showing development have also showed a compact circulation but an asymmetric wind field, likely due to how fast it’s going or the strong trades, or both. This run looks to be heading for a Hispaniola landfall again.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.imgur.com/DrHyBUu.jpg

18z...

Those tracks are very similar to the track of Hurricane Dennis (2005). Dennis did not really start to develop until it reached about 60W.

[toad strangler]

18z gfs is coming in stronger before the islands.

It's not going to be June much longer so there is that.

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like there is low wind shear in the Caribbean on the GFS when this system enters. I hope this things fails to develop if that's the case.

[toad strangler]

Looking at climo July there is a historical fork in the road. Obviously this is a historical mean average for the whole month but given where 97L is coming from and 95L for that matter it's a useful tool.

[St0rmTh0r]

It’s late June Folks…

Right this shouldn't even be a discussion crazy!

[eastcoastFL]

It’s late June Folks…

Right this shouldn't even be a discussion crazy!

June is the new July

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro is a bit stronger with this system in terms of wind. Up to 45kts within the next 48 hours. 850mb vort is much deeper though and keeps it deep until it reaches the islands before it starts opening up again.

[AlphaToOmega]

All models take this to tropical storm status. Some take this to Category I status, and one takes it to Category II status.

[AlphaToOmega]

For once, the GFS scenario is a bearish scenario. It has Invest 97L going over Haiti; the mountains there should help weaken the storm if this plays out. I say bearish because multiple models are forecasting a hurricane.

[floridasun78]

do you all think their more stift to east by models toward south fl as high get weaker at west side?