ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

A strong tropical wave located over the far east Atlantic off the
African coast is producing a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. As the system moves west-northwestward into the
central Atlantic Ocean, conditions appear only marginally conducive
for development due to relatively cool ocean temperatures. However,
a small tropical depression could still form by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/LckyTuba/status/1408096535334768648



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1408098120777539591



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1408115915271589891



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1408088636097245186



 https://twitter.com/MaxLittle92/status/1408114359822438402

[Aric Dunn]

It is definitely well on its way in terms of vorticity and low level structure.

[Stormybajan]

It is definitely well on its way in terms of vorticity and low level structure.

4N?? I cant remember seeing an invest in the atlantic THAT far south before, maybe the reason models are showing no development currently is because they are initializing it to swing too far north

[chaser1]

It is definitely well on its way in terms of vorticity and low level structure.

However, a small tropical depression could still form by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

I don't know Aric..... seems like NHC feels 95L seems to lack the outstanding upper air conditions AND the inland Louisiana SST's that made naming Claudette a no-brainer

[Aric Dunn]

I don't know Aric..... seems like NHC feels 95L seems to lack the outstanding upper air conditions AND the inland Louisiana SST's that made naming Claudette a no-brainer

Those darn swamps do it everytime.. lol

[StPeteMike]

Though the waves have been impressive, I don’t see anything forming out in the MDR until at least mid to late July… which would still be relatively early. Though I may be wrong, my belief that we will see the wave near the Lesser Antilles form before reach the GOM is dwindling pretty fast.

[tailgater]

After looking at the TPW loop, drier air is being suck in and the water temps marginal, I think the chances are pretty low this system develops in the near future. The shear I see may abate when it moves farther west away from the coast.

[aspen]

Though the waves have been impressive, I don’t see anything forming out in the MDR until at least mid to late July… which would still be relatively early. Though I may be wrong, my belief that we will see the wave near the Lesser Antilles form before reach the GOM is dwindling pretty fast.

The Euro velocity forecast suggests conditions could be good for activity starting in the last third of July, following what looks to be a suppressive phase in mid July. If the waves in late June are this powerful and getting so close to being TCs, then we might have to watch out come next month.

[chaser1]

(Bones to Kirk)
"....... Damn it Jim, I'm a doctor not a bio-horticulturist. You can't simply beam down 500 hundred tons of gator & crawdad infested marshlands to the ocean surface.
95L simply needs more heat or it'll die!

(Kirk to Sulu)
"Reconfigure ships phasers to pulse setting and target these coordinates 4.5 N and 17.5W, at a sub-surface depth of 50'."

(Chekov to Kirk)
"Captain, ship sensors are picking up multiple unidentified subsurface wessles in the area. Our phasers may be misconstrued as an aggressive action sir.

(Kirk to Chekov)
"What are wessles? Oh, you mean UFO''s? Don't worry about them, they've been on Earth observing before the dinosaurs. Besides, 95L must boldly go where no Tropical Storm has gone before..... Commence firing on my mark"

[aspen]

Maybe this might be a wave that doesn’t develop in the MDR, but survives until it’s able to develop further west.

[BYG Jacob]

Multiple skeptical posts ignoring glaring evidence the wave is already consolidating.

[ElectricStorm]

Hard for me to get excited for a wave this far out there in June, so I'm not expecting much from this. Could become a TS though

On the other hand though, we have a wave like this in June... So I guess I'm a little excited lol

[AnnularCane]

Hard for me to get excited for a wave this far out there in June, so I'm not expecting much from this. Could become a TS though

On the other hand though, we have a wave like this in June... So I guess I'm a little excited lol

Yeah, it's a nice-looking wave, but on the other hand...it's June. Makes it kind of hard to think much will happen.

But on the other hand, it's a nice-looking wave...

[Stormybajan]

Certainly some convection down there at 5N however Im wondering if the energy at 10N will in the end takeover

[cycloneye]

No more mention of small tropical depression.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A strong tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic off
the African coast is producing a broad area of showers and a few
thunderstorms. As the system moves west-northwestward into the
central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days, conditions appear
only marginally conducive for development due to relatively cool
ocean temperatures. However, some development of this system is
still possible by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[chaser1]

Certainly some convection down there at 5N however Im wondering if the energy at 10N will in the end takeover

I don't think that will be the case. Tops have warmed and convection decreased some, in association with the MLC a bit to the west. At the same time, it appears that convection is slowly increasing in association with the weak LLC around 5N. Models seem to be slow to kick this low westward which suggests that it is lacking much vertical structure at the moment. We'll just have to wait and see if/when that'll change but some serious convective bursting over or near the LLC would certainly be a clue. Fwiw, I believe that another strong wave is on deck to emerge off the coast in a few days as well.

[Craters]

Wouldn't this thing have trouble generating large-scale vorticity that close to the equator because it's almost Coriolis-free down there?

(If I knew what I was talking about, I would have phrased that much more professionally.)

[Aric Dunn]

NIce ball of convection.. right where it should be..

[JRD]

Westerly flow may be due to the monsoon trough being north of the Invest. Also, it seems that the Invest's circulation is close to closed.
https://ocean.weather.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif