EPAC: CARLOS - Remnants
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
Sciencerocks
- Category 5
- Posts: 7315
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 4 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 500
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while it moves slowly to the west-northwest well off
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
0 likes
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139711
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 5 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized overnight in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 500
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form today or tomorrow while it
moves slowly to the west well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 5 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized overnight in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 500
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form today or tomorrow while it
moves slowly to the west well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
The HWRF continues to show 92E becoming a 100-105 kt Cat 3. A combination of a tight circulation, a large moisture pocket, and a core that quickly stacks leads to such an aggressive intensity estimate than all of the other models. The fact that the HWRF shows the MLC and LLC stacking so quickly (within 24-36 hours) suggests that shear will be low enough early in the storm’s development. SSTs are also nice and favorable, around 28-29C.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139711
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
EP, 92, 2021060512, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1080W, 30, 1006, LO
* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922021 06/05/21 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 57 64 66 66 64 62 60 62 61 58 54 53
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 57 64 66 66 64 62 60 62 61 58 54 53
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 39 43 47 50 53 55 55 55 53 50 48 46 45
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 4 7 7 8 10 11 12 14 15 14 12 8 10 13 14 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 0 -4 -1 0 -4 -5 -1 0 3 -2 -4 -5 -1
SHEAR DIR 102 181 165 143 128 131 126 115 109 106 117 119 82 62 59 68 57
SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 157 157 155 153 153 149 145 141 139 132 132 133 132 133
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 65 63 61 62 59 56 54 56 56 53 56 59 57 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 12
850 MB ENV VOR -18 -11 -13 -11 -11 2 4 13 14 19 7 5 1 -1 -14 -23 -26
200 MB DIV 68 64 46 21 3 -7 5 30 -7 6 4 37 38 22 27 -2 -15
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 2 1 2 2 1 -2 -1 -2 0
LAND (KM) 769 769 767 776 786 863 923 1024 1171 1234 1293 1418 1623 1757 1851 1987 2204
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 108.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 7 8 7 8 12 12 7 7 11 13
HEAT CONTENT 42 47 52 55 56 48 31 18 16 25 11 5 3 4 4 4 6
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 34. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 27. 34. 36. 36. 34. 32. 30. 32. 31. 28. 24. 23.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 108.0
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 3.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 5.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.46 2.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 36.9% 24.4% 22.4% 0.0% 21.0% 17.3% 20.2%
Logistic: 14.9% 40.3% 23.1% 13.3% 2.4% 11.8% 6.5% 23.7%
Bayesian: 7.2% 16.7% 5.8% 1.8% 0.4% 1.6% 1.3% 0.1%
Consensus: 11.9% 31.3% 17.8% 12.5% 0.9% 11.5% 8.3% 14.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922021 06/05/21 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 57 64 66 66 64 62 60 62 61 58 54 53
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 57 64 66 66 64 62 60 62 61 58 54 53
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 39 43 47 50 53 55 55 55 53 50 48 46 45
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 4 7 7 8 10 11 12 14 15 14 12 8 10 13 14 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 0 -4 -1 0 -4 -5 -1 0 3 -2 -4 -5 -1
SHEAR DIR 102 181 165 143 128 131 126 115 109 106 117 119 82 62 59 68 57
SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 157 157 155 153 153 149 145 141 139 132 132 133 132 133
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 65 63 61 62 59 56 54 56 56 53 56 59 57 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 12
850 MB ENV VOR -18 -11 -13 -11 -11 2 4 13 14 19 7 5 1 -1 -14 -23 -26
200 MB DIV 68 64 46 21 3 -7 5 30 -7 6 4 37 38 22 27 -2 -15
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 2 1 2 2 1 -2 -1 -2 0
LAND (KM) 769 769 767 776 786 863 923 1024 1171 1234 1293 1418 1623 1757 1851 1987 2204
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 108.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 7 8 7 8 12 12 7 7 11 13
HEAT CONTENT 42 47 52 55 56 48 31 18 16 25 11 5 3 4 4 4 6
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 34. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 27. 34. 36. 36. 34. 32. 30. 32. 31. 28. 24. 23.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 108.0
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 3.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 5.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.46 2.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 36.9% 24.4% 22.4% 0.0% 21.0% 17.3% 20.2%
Logistic: 14.9% 40.3% 23.1% 13.3% 2.4% 11.8% 6.5% 23.7%
Bayesian: 7.2% 16.7% 5.8% 1.8% 0.4% 1.6% 1.3% 0.1%
Consensus: 11.9% 31.3% 17.8% 12.5% 0.9% 11.5% 8.3% 14.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Sciencerocks
- Category 5
- Posts: 7315
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139711
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
The area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico is gradually becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form today or
tomorrow while it moves slowly to the west well off the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Manzanillo, Mexico is gradually becoming better defined.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form today or
tomorrow while it moves slowly to the west well off the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
Kingarabian wrote:HWRF doesn't really get it going for another 12 hours.
And also turns 92E into this:
Ofc it's completely alone as even the GFS most runs bring this to the 980 mbar range.
I will say I don't trust the ECMWF/CMC/ICON who are under initializing this invest.
0 likes
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922021 06/05/21 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 31 38 45 51 52 54 56 57 57 57 57 56
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 31 38 45 51 52 54 56 57 57 57 57 56
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 28 27 25 24 24 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 9 9 11 11 13 12 15 13 9 6 9 8 5 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 3 6 7 0 0 0 1
SHEAR DIR 192 175 161 160 151 137 111 110 88 99 115 116 87 75 74 52 344
SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 156 159 156 154 153 150 146 145 140 133 132 136 136
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 63 60 61 58 57 58 59 60 59 58 59 55 51 45
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 8 8 9 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 10 9
850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -7 -5 -2 12 19 16 11 6 -3 -2 -11 -11 -22 -34 -45
200 MB DIV 59 40 21 -7 -1 2 25 12 -13 30 29 57 16 21 14 0 -12
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 4 5 5 3 1 3 3 3 2 3 4 5
LAND (KM) 694 702 712 727 740 815 909 1034 1156 1267 1334 1452 1620 1712 1738 1861 2088
LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 5 6 11 14
HEAT CONTENT 30 31 32 37 44 58 47 22 16 21 22 9 7 5 5 6 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. 38. 39. 41. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 32. 31.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 107.1
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 2.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.65 4.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 1.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.5
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.9% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 14.5% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.5% 9.0% 3.8% 1.6% 0.4% 2.1% 3.3% 15.6%
Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 10.0% 7.0% 0.5% 0.1% 6.0% 5.9% 5.2%
DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 18.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922021 06/05/21 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 31 38 45 51 52 54 56 57 57 57 57 56
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 31 38 45 51 52 54 56 57 57 57 57 56
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 28 27 25 24 24 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 9 9 11 11 13 12 15 13 9 6 9 8 5 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 3 6 7 0 0 0 1
SHEAR DIR 192 175 161 160 151 137 111 110 88 99 115 116 87 75 74 52 344
SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.1 27.6 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 156 159 156 154 153 150 146 145 140 133 132 136 136
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 63 60 61 58 57 58 59 60 59 58 59 55 51 45
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 8 8 9 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 10 9
850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -7 -5 -2 12 19 16 11 6 -3 -2 -11 -11 -22 -34 -45
200 MB DIV 59 40 21 -7 -1 2 25 12 -13 30 29 57 16 21 14 0 -12
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 4 5 5 3 1 3 3 3 2 3 4 5
LAND (KM) 694 702 712 727 740 815 909 1034 1156 1267 1334 1452 1620 1712 1738 1861 2088
LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 5 6 11 14
HEAT CONTENT 30 31 32 37 44 58 47 22 16 21 22 9 7 5 5 6 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. 38. 39. 41. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 32. 31.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 107.1
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 2.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.65 4.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 1.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.5
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.9% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 14.5% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.5% 9.0% 3.8% 1.6% 0.4% 2.1% 3.3% 15.6%
Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 10.0% 7.0% 0.5% 0.1% 6.0% 5.9% 5.2%
DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 18.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
Yellow Evan wrote:Kingarabian wrote:HWRF doesn't really get it going for another 12 hours.
And also turns 92E into this:
[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/850835515610497044/hwrf_satIR_92E_9.png[url]
Ofc it's completely alone as even the GFS most runs bring this to the 980 mbar range.
[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/850833253890916402/92E_intensity_latest.png[url]
I will say I don't trust the ECMWF/CMC/ICON who are under initializing this invest.
Even the UKMET is super conservative for some reason. The mean of those intensity models keep this a TS for about 5 days... while the HWRF keeps this a hurricane for 5 days as well. Could see some decent ACE out of this if it manages to become a hurricane.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
Sciencerocks
- Category 5
- Posts: 7315
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E
Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS no longer develops it LOL
Terrible initialization.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests