ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

We still have a bunch of covid carrying Tourons here, this will be a mess for PCB to Destin.

[floridasun78]

maybe their say fred have wind of 55 by 11pm

[abajan]

maybe their say fred have wind of 55 by 11pm

Due to the conversion from knots, they never use 55 mph. So, it would be 60 mph.

[tropicwatch]

We still have a bunch of covid carrying Tourons here, this will be a mess for PCB to Destin.

[NDG]

Unflagged 62 knots at flight level, 48 knots by SFMR at the surface.

002100 2647N 08415W 8435 01561 0107 +168 +168 169043 046 043 016 03
002130 2650N 08415W 8427 01561 0102 +163 +163 171054 056 048 018 00
002200 2652N 08415W 8424 01564 0101 +162 +162 173058 062 047 020 00
002230 2654N 08415W 8442 01545 0105 +160 +160 162058 061 045 029 03
002300 2656N 08416W 8427 01566 0112 +156 +156 155053 058 044 031 00
002330 2658N 08416W 8431 01562 0117 +153 +153 152050 052 038 027 00
002400 2700N 08416W 8427 01571 0116 +157 +157 154049 049 039 021 00

[Owasso]

06L FRED 210816 0000 27.1N 85.7W ATL 45 1000

[ColdMiser123]

50 kt is likely the best intensity currently.

The wind conversion for 850 hPa is ~0.82 to ~0.83, which supports 51 kt surface equivalent winds with the measured 62 kt FL wind. Blending that with the 48 kt SFMR gives you just about 50 kt.

Fred still has around 18-24 hours left before it makes landfall.

[hipshot]

We still have a bunch of covid carrying Tourons here, this will be a mess for PCB to Destin.

O.T. First time I have seen the term "Tourons", had to look it up, that's funny!!

[Aric Dunn]

Just saying...

[hipshot]

Just saying...


https://i.ibb.co/T2rKb7d/Capture.gif

Are you saying this is the LLC?

[wx98]

Just saying...


https://i.ibb.co/T2rKb7d/Capture.gif

I’d actually be surprised at this point if it didn’t become a hurricane.

[tropicwatch]

Just saying...


https://i.ibb.co/T2rKb7d/Capture.gif

I’d actually be surprised at this point if it didn’t become a hurricane.

That is why I battened down the hatches at my house today. Hate doing it in the rain.

[Aric Dunn]

Just saying...


https://i.ibb.co/T2rKb7d/Capture.gif

I’d actually be surprised at this point if it didn’t become a hurricane.

yes that is the center..

but the main thing to look at is the 75mph ship report..

[hipshot]

Just saying...


https://i.ibb.co/T2rKb7d/Capture.gif

I’d actually be surprised at this point if it didn’t become a hurricane.

yes that is the center..

but the main thing to look at is the 75mph ship report..

Yep, I saw that, that's a lot more than 50kts.

[TallyTracker]

The eastward shifts have put us under a TS Warning here in Tallahassee. The schools have shut down. Normally I’d get a day off work, but since the company issued laptops, the power or internet has to go out to get the day off. I am concerned about tornadoes though. Leon County has had a couple of damaging ones in the past couple of years. Flash flooding is also a concern due to the clay soil around here.

[aspen]

Just saying...


https://i.ibb.co/T2rKb7d/Capture.gif

I’d actually be surprised at this point if it didn’t become a hurricane.

yes that is the center..

but the main thing to look at is the 75mph ship report..

Recon is going to pass through that quadrant soon, so we’ll know for certain what the winds are there. I’m guessing it was a gust and winds are closer to 40-50 kt.

[ElectricStorm]

Yep as I expected, Fred looks to be getting it's act together before landfall. Could be looking at a Cat 1 coming in...

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/DTwAM3zg-t8[/youtube]

[wx98]

Winds only 40-45 kt the entire NE pass from recon.

[skyline385]

40kts on NE quadrant, thats surprising thought it was the strongest