ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

[Cpv17]

Cpv which means over Victoria?

With the current track, the NHC has it going just east of Victoria by maybe 20-30 miles.

[tolakram]

GFS total precip

[tolakram]

18Z GFS landfall

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GFS landfall
https://i.imgur.com/8lakiyr.png

Since yesterday GFS has slowly been shifting west. Lets not forget GFS had this going into Texas and Louisiana border a day ago so that in itself is a westward shift but lets see what happens going forward can still shift back east or more westward shifts possible.

[Cpv17]

18Z GFS landfall
https://i.imgur.com/8lakiyr.png

Palacios, TX landfall on the 18z GFS.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Nicholas is a very large tropical storm in terms of convective envelope.

[ChrisH-UK]

Has anyone noticed a trend in the models, each run has the center moving west and earlier than the last run. For example here's the GFS with Nicholas off Brownsville on the 06z nearest time is 21z and 18z nearest time is 15z and just off the coast.

[Nimbus]

Whew, RIP Schulenberg, La Grange, Flatonia on that model run. But certainly only one run and definitely an outlier in terms of overall precipitation.

For reference, the highest total rainfall for Harvey was 60.58 inches at the airport in Jefferson county, south of Beaumont. I just don’t see that type of setup here with that many days of training bands.

That may be the highest official total, but I live about 10 miles from an unofficial 67" total (Vidor) which is about 25 miles north of the airport.

NHC track is way inland NW of Houston up near the Greenwood Saloon in Bluffdale.
I'm not familiar with the local flooding issues but a stall west or northwest of Houston would be the moisture pump that is concerning.

Probably change the track around 8ish with the update.

[IcyTundra]

HMON slight shift east from the 12Z. 12Z HMON had Nicholas going over Port O'Connor but the 18Z HMON has Nicholas barely passing to the east of Port O'Connor

[Cpv17]

Has anyone noticed a trend in the models, each run has the center moving west and earlier than the last run. For example here's the GFS with Nicholas off Brownsville on the 06z nearest time is 21z and 18z nearest time is 15z and just off the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/RNwrnpD.png

https://i.imgur.com/2GkOu7N.png

The GFS is caving to the Euro.

[Clearcloudz]

Has anyone noticed a trend in the models, each run has the center moving west and earlier than the last run. For example here's the GFS with Nicholas off Brownsville on the 06z nearest time is 21z and 18z nearest time is 15z and just off the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/RNwrnpD.png

https://i.imgur.com/2GkOu7N.png

The GFS is caving to the Euro.

That would result in a epic rainfall event.

[SoupBone]

Has anyone noticed a trend in the models, each run has the center moving west and earlier than the last run. For example here's the GFS with Nicholas off Brownsville on the 06z nearest time is 21z and 18z nearest time is 15z and just off the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/RNwrnpD.png

https://i.imgur.com/2GkOu7N.png

The GFS is caving to the Euro.

That would result in a epic rainfall event.

I don't know how good the GFS is in rainfall predictions, but not really. It shows 9" over most of Houston for the whole event. That's actually manageable. The Euro was much more concerning.

[Clearcloudz]

The GFS is caving to the Euro.

That would result in a epic rainfall event.

I don't know how good the GFS is in rainfall predictions, but not really. It shows 9" over most of Houston for the whole event. That's actually manageable. The Euro was much more concerning.

If the track moves west then no system would slow down considerably and throw down rain way more than 9 inches probably in the 20 to 30 inch range. NWS Houston mentions this in there discussion as well at 4PM that a more westward track would result in even more rainfall.

[SoupBone]

That would result in a epic rainfall event.

I don't know how good the GFS is in rainfall predictions, but not really. It shows 9" over most of Houston for the whole event. That's actually manageable. The Euro was much more concerning.

If the track moves west then no system would slow down considerably and throw down rain way more than 9 inches probably in the 20 to 30 inch range.

Your response to him was referencing the GFS which shows the 9" amounts. The GFS does not show 20-30" of rain. That's why I mentioned the Euro, but even then most of the mets commenting said it's way overdoing those rainfall numbers. This next one might self-correct and maybe we'll see more realistic amounts.

The NWS Houston is calling for 8-10" in Houston with coastal areas and SE Houston getting between 15-20" which would not be fun.

[ChrisH-UK]

Has anyone noticed a trend in the models, each run has the center moving west and earlier than the last run. For example here's the GFS with Nicholas off Brownsville on the 06z nearest time is 21z and 18z nearest time is 15z and just off the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/RNwrnpD.png

https://i.imgur.com/2GkOu7N.png

The GFS is caving to the Euro.

That would result in a epic rainfall event.

I hope not.

[Clearcloudz]

I don't know how good the GFS is in rainfall predictions, but not really. It shows 9" over most of Houston for the whole event. That's actually manageable. The Euro was much more concerning.

If the track moves west then no system would slow down considerably and throw down rain way more than 9 inches probably in the 20 to 30 inch range.

Your response to him was referencing the GFS which shows the 9" amounts. The GFS does not show 20-30" of rain. That's why I mentioned the Euro, but even then most of the mets commenting said it's way overdoing those rainfall numbers. This next one might self-correct and maybe we'll see more realistic amounts.

The NWS Houston is calling for 8-10" in Houston with coastal areas and SE Houston getting between 15-20" which would not be fun.

Confidence is low so lets see what happens when the 00Z runs come out.

[Cpv17]

The reason why the GFS is showing less rainfall is because it doesn’t stall it out like the Euro does.

[IcyTundra]

The reason why the GFS is showing less rainfall is because it doesn’t stall it out like the Euro does.

Which is because the GFS has Nicholas getting stronger than the euro.

[SoupBone]

The reason why the GFS is showing less rainfall is because it doesn’t stall it out like the Euro does.

It's interesting how that's such a major difference in the two right now. The GFS zips it on out of here.

[Cpv17]

The reason why the GFS is showing less rainfall is because it doesn’t stall it out like the Euro does.

It's interesting how that's such a major difference in the two right now. The GFS zips it on out of here.

Yeah, huge difference. The EPS also has many members that stall it out or move it very slowly as well.