EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

90kts

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:

Friday, Jul. 16, 2021 0:00 Z

Wind (1 min. avg.):

90 knots (104 mph | 46 m/s | 167 km/h)

Pressure:

975 mb (28.80 inHg | 975 hPa)

Location at the time:

832 statute miles (1,339 km) to the SW (231°) from Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, Mexico.

Coordinates:

15.3N 119.8W

[ElectricStorm]

It's already closed the dry air off. That didn't take long

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

Shear is pretty much no longer an issue as overall structure has considerably improved with all quadrants looking healthy. Dry air is the biggest question mark looking forward, since shear will be low for the next 5 days before it enter the CPAC.

[aspen]

I’m thinking a Cat 4 is a possibility if Felicia can keep its core intact with all that dry air ahead. It’ll likely be a major within the next 12 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Colder cloud tops wrapping around the west side fast. This is bombing out and should be a major by 9z.

[Yellow Evan]

I’m thinking a Cat 4 is a possibility if Felicia can keep its core intact with all that dry air ahead. It’ll likely be a major within the next 12 hours.

This seems to be destined to turn annular and with that stability annular hurricanes provide, I’d expect this to oscillate between 80 and 115 knots until it hits high shear.

[Yellow Evan]

T6.0.

[Kingarabian]

Going for Cat.4:

[ElectricStorm]

This thing is going off right now. Will easily be a solid Cat 4 at this rate

[Kingarabian]

Strong convection in the western eyewall.

[ElectricStorm]

Revised to 95kts
06E FELICIA 210716 0000 15.3N 119.8W EPAC 95 971

[cycloneye]

Best Track updated up to 95kts.

EP, 06, 2021071600, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1198W, 95, 971, HU

[Astromanía]

Wow! what a surprise

[Kingarabian]

Wow! what a surprise

Not all too surprising. Would've been a disappointment if it didn't reach major status, but disappointment has been the norm since 2019.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FELICIA EP062021 07/16/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 98 96 96 92 85 83 78 72 70 67 65 61 58 55 52
V (KT) LAND 95 98 98 96 96 92 85 83 78 72 70 67 65 61 58 55 52
V (KT) LGEM 95 98 97 95 93 88 82 78 75 69 65 62 59 56 50 43 37
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 4 6 1 5 6 12 5 6 5 0 13 15 18 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -8 -2 -2 -6 -4 0 0 -4 0 -5 0 2 2
SHEAR DIR 54 46 51 75 89 34 63 88 132 111 68 54 208 291 298 286 284
SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.4 27.0 27.3 27.3 26.8 26.1 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.1
POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 136 135 132 127 134 137 136 131 124 117 121 124 125 123
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 5
700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 56 53 48 47 47 46 44 47 48 48 46 45 44 43
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 14 14 13 15 15 14 15 14 14 14 14 13 12
850 MB ENV VOR -19 -8 -7 -1 2 3 8 3 -5 5 9 11 10 14 0 7 -1
200 MB DIV 24 9 -5 1 -6 -10 -8 1 1 -58 -39 -32 -35 -25 -15 5 8
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 1 -1 0 0 1 -1 0 1 2
LAND (KM) 1314 1364 1415 1480 1547 1691 1828 1969 2121 2268 2313 2118 1927 1702 1473 1299 1169
LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.5 121.2 122.0 122.7 124.4 126.1 127.8 129.9 131.8 133.6 135.5 137.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 12 11 9 7
HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 7 10 2 1 8 9 11 2 0 0 0 0 3 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -27. -30. -33. -35. -37. -39. -41. -44.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 1. 1. -3. -10. -12. -17. -23. -25. -28. -30. -34. -37. -40. -43.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 15.3 119.8

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/16/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 0.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 4.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.29 -1.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 21.5% 16.7% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 7.5% 8.4% 7.6% 6.1% 9.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 6.7% 10.0% 8.1% 7.1% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 12.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/16/21 00 UTC ##

[Astromanía]

Wow! what a surprise

Not all too surprising. Would've been a disappointment if it didn't reach major status, but disappointment has been the norm since 2019.

I mean at first this wasn't forecasted to develop a lot, models developed the eastern system but now things have changed

[Yellow Evan]

B needs to smooth out or eye needs to warm to WMG. For now this is a T5.5.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 JUL 2021 Time : 022031 UTC
Lat : 15:18:00 N Lon : 120:09:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 963.4mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.0 5.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 6 km

Center Temp : -32.0C Cloud Region Temp : -58.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Eye seems to be cooling.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...FELICIA CONTINUES RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 120.2W
ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 120.2 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn to the
west-southwest is expected by Friday, and a westward motion is
forecast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected tonight,
and Felicia is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight.
Some slow weakening is possible by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake



Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Felicia has continued to rapidly
strengthen this evening. Infrared temperatures have significantly
warmed within the eye during the past couple hours, and deep
convection within the eyewall has become more symmetric. A closed
ring of infrared cloud top temperatures colder than -65 to -70 deg
Celsius now completely surrounds the eye of Felicia. Based on these
current satellite trends, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt
for this advisory. This lies between the TAFB subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimate of 90 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT objective
estimates of around 100 kt.

Warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear along
Felicia's forecast track are expected to allow for some additional
strengthening in the short-term, especially since dry air in the
surrounding environment has had minimal impact on the cyclone's
intensification up to this point. The official NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted upward and now brings Felicia to major
hurricane status (Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale) within 12 h. The NHC forecast remains higher than the
guidance consensus through the first 72 h, then generally follows
the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) thereafter. The cyclone
is forecast to slowly weaken this weekend within a drier, more
stable mid-level environment. However, the forecast track keeps
Felicia south of the 26 deg C isotherm, which should allow the
cyclone to maintain its hurricane intensity through much of the
forecast period.

Felicia is still moving almost due west at around 8 kt. As the
steering ridge becomes positioned to the northwest of Felicia, the
cyclone is expected to move west-southwestward during the next day
or so. Then, Felicia is forecast to resume a more westward motion
for the next several days as the cyclone moves to the south of a
subtropical ridge. The track guidance remains tightly clustered
through much of the period. The official NHC forecast is adjusted
just a bit slower and slightly farther north than the previous one,
bringing it closer to the usually reliable consensus aids TVCE and
HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 15.2N 120.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 15.0N 129.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 14.9N 133.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 14.5N 137.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake