ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Nimbus]

I remember Hurricane Charley looked weak coming off Cuba but it exploded dropping 18 MB in just 3 hours from 965 mb. We are still in the 980's and GFS doesn't have this near 965 till tomorrow morning just as its entering the loop current. GFS showing a little shear don't know if that is from yesterdays G-IV data or not. The storm size in the latest run is a little smaller which could turn out to be a saving grace if it verifies.

[aspen]

Recon is finding 55 kt winds in that big outer band. It might act to slow down the core, or eventually meld into the core and start an EWRC. Both are hard to predict.

[grapealcoholic]

Recon is finding 55 kt winds in that big outer band. It might act to slow down the core, or eventually meld into the core and start an EWRC. Both are hard to predict.

The core will start to hog all the momentum

[Highteeld]

Wind field is very large. The structure is better than 24 hours ago, I think Cuba really broadened this sucker out.

Actually the size is average at best per advisories.

NE quad looking pretty large to me

[ThetaE]

The 00z HWRF thought Ida would have a central pressure of 986 mb immediately after Cuba, so in some sense the impact of land was understated.

On the other hand, the 00z HWRF thought pressure would *rise 1 mb* a few hours after landfall with Cuba, and sit around 985 mb at 09z. Thus a pressure of 986 mb at 09:40z is actually a lot of recovery put in!

That covers past and present. For the future: that HWRF model run has pressure down to 983 at 12z. If we fall below that in any way we’d be ahead of the HWRF’s schedule (which makes landfall as a 940 mb storm).

The recovery pace post-Cuba has been neither faster than expected nor slower than expected. It has been, with a few deviations, as long as expected.

[Kazmit]

Look at the double hot towers rotating around the center. We saw the exact same thing with Grace-- a prime indicator of RI.

[grapealcoholic]

Starting to look shrimpy. It might try to pinch off a smaller core

[Category5Kaiju]

Look at the double hot towers rotating around the center. We saw the exact same thing with Grace-- a prime indicator of RI.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/goes16_ir_09L_202108280812.gif

Wow, that looks quite reminiscent of Harvey as a Cat 1 in the Gulf.

[Dean4Storms]

We should see the eye clear out in a few hours, very little shear now.

RI should commence in a few hours.

[jlauderdal]

Look at the double hot towers rotating around the center. We saw the exact same thing with Grace-- a prime indicator of RI.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/goes16_ir_09L_202108280812.gif

It's nothing less than all systems go, any newbies to the board that hasn't seen a major hurricane in development through landfall are in for a classic gulf system with near-perfect conditions.

[ThetaE]

Look at the double hot towers rotating around the center. We saw the exact same thing with Grace-- a prime indicator of RI.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/goes16_ir_09L_202108280812.gif

Starting to look shrimpy. It might try to pinch off a smaller core

This is probably Ida's best opportunity to take on a smaller eyewall. The NOAA VDM characterized the eye as "open to the SE" and elliptical, with radii of 10 and 35 nmi. The dual hot towers usually help a) close off an eyewall, and b) symmetrize it (make it circular). That circular radius could be smaller than the previous ~24 nmi radius, although the average of 10 and 35 is 22.4 (pretty close). Closing off may favor the smaller end of the radii, though. I'm not really sure how that process works.

Also that VDM seems a little weird. Cuba radars are getting distant, but seem to show a very much closed eyewall on the SE side.

[grapealcoholic]

Look at the double hot towers rotating around the center. We saw the exact same thing with Grace-- a prime indicator of RI.

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/goes16_ir_09L_202108280812.gif

Starting to look shrimpy. It might try to pinch off a smaller core

This is probably Ida's best opportunity to take on a smaller eyewall. The NOAA VDM characterized the eye as "open to the SE" and elliptical, with radii of 10 and 35 nmi. The dual hot towers usually help a) close off an eyewall, and b) symmetrize it (make it circular). That circular radius could be smaller than the previous ~24 nmi radius, although the average of 10 and 35 is 22.4 (pretty close). Closing off may favor the smaller end of the radii, though. I'm not really sure how that process works.

Also that VDM seems a little weird. Cuba radars are getting distant, but seem to show a very much closed eyewall on the SE side.

Yep. Also seems to be leaving those outer bands to die

[Red eye]

She looks well on her way to louisiana. In my opinion track is and has been on autopilot pretty close to GFS, for the last two days maybe a hair(20-30 miles) west. Kudos. We made our decisions based off of it plus a factor of safety. Landfall will be somewhere up the East side of vermilion bay. Houma and Baton Rouge will get the full storm. Weve got friends and family everywhere in Louisiana so it doesn't matter where it hits, the work will start afterwards. I think the best possible scenario is for this thing to go right up the atchafalaya basin, which if it would come west of forecasted track it would do. GFS is forecasting 15-20" of New Orleans, so those folks are gonna need help.

As far as presentation it doesn't seem to have the diameter some of the other big storms have had. Latest models this morning actually have this hitting as a 950 something millibar, which is higher pressure than yesterday's predictions. We'll take any positive we can get. May you choke on dry air, wind shear or some other natural element. Die storm die

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1431574584008998912

[aspen]

FL winds peaked around 80kt in the NE quadrant. The standard 90% conversion to surface winds supports 70 kt, maybe 75 kt. SFMR is just under 70 kt, and the pressure is just under 990mb.

[Bad_Hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1431554582845480961



Winds probably all ready around 80+ kn.. we’ll see shortly

[tiger_deF]

The IR convective pattern is beastly, pinks and grays surrounding almost the entire eyewall (with an area to the SW still warming, though not for long). I'd imagine that over the next few hours we will see this translate to quickly dropping pressures

[Stormybajan]

Quite strange to see literally no intensification from overnight, the IR presentation is rapidly improving right now however so im thinking in about 2 hours once the convective bursts fully wrap around winds should pick up and the pressure should decrease at faster rates

[869MB]

There is a tongue of higher Surface Base Cape draped over the northern periphery of the storm which should theoretically assist with feeding some of these hot towers wrapping around the center later on this morning.

[Highteeld]

Winds not quite mixing down