ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[wx98]

NW side FL and SFMR ~53 kt. Pressure in center around 990.

[Airboy]

I thought the pressure would be lower than that, a bit odd

[Shell Mound]

I thought the pressure would be lower than that, a bit odd

ML dry air seems to be becoming entrained in the core.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1431554582845480961




This reminds me of Gustav (2008) and especially Irene (2011): sprawling banding, yet dry air inhibitive.

[Owasso]

Dropsonde found 987 with 8 knots

[aspen]

I’m quite surprised there has been no intensification at all overnight. That should lower its potential landfall intensity…unless it undergoes ERI in the next 24-30 hours.

[Highteeld]

986 mb

[Highteeld]

I’m quite surprised there has been no intensification at all overnight. That should lower its potential landfall intensity…unless it undergoes ERI in the next 24-30 hours.

NE eyewall pass should be more impressive, I bet it's stronger than 70 kts there.

[grapealcoholic]

I thought the pressure would be lower than that, a bit odd

ML dry air seems to be becoming entrained in the core.

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1431554582845480961

This reminds me of Gustav (2008) and especially Irene (2011): sprawling banding, yet dry air inhibitive.

Looks to be shedding off those bands as momentum rushes to the core

[xironman]

I thought the pressure would be lower than that, a bit odd

With the mesos filling in the eyewall that should help with symmetry it will interesting to see what the AF plane finds in a half hour.

[cycloneye]

I’m quite surprised there has been no intensification at all overnight. That should lower its potential landfall intensity…unless it undergoes ERI in the next 24-30 hours.

Cuba took a toll on it that many here said it would not.

[Airboy]

With the sond showing 986mb it feels more what I thought compare to the around 990 the extrap. showed

[grapealcoholic]

Look how broad the pressure dip is -- that will tighten up soon

[jlauderdal]

I’m quite surprised there has been no intensification at all overnight. That should lower its potential landfall intensity…unless it undergoes ERI in the next 24-30 hours.

Cuba took a toll on it that many here said it would not.

The internal structure of the hurricane continues to be very good and has all the ingredients for RI today, what kind of damage are you seeing from Cuba?

There was a very impressive blow-up of convection as the core hit land. Anyone thinking it was going to come offshore of Cuba and start an immediate intensification process wasn't looking at the forecast or modeling. The best conditions are dead ahead.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1431562905640742913

[xironman]

Look how broad the pressure dip is -- that will tighten up soon
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0809A-IDA_timeseries.png

The main thing Cuba did was flatten out the pressure field. That makes it a larger storm with more momentum needed to get it going. With convection taking off we should see that soon.

[Highteeld]

Wind field is very large. The structure is better than 24 hours ago, I think Cuba really broadened this sucker out.

[alan1961]

How can I go to bed with all these developments.

Btw it's 5 AM here

We get to catch up on the board next day before the US wakes up

[beoumont]

Multiple hot towers dancing around each other... extremely foreboding signature. I can't recall a time where a storm didn't explosively deepen after having dual convective towers around the eyewall. I'd expect a cat 2 very soon, if not already.

Is that not a cloud signature of a banded eye structure? (Interlocking bands).

[jlauderdal]

Look how broad the pressure dip is -- that will tighten up soon
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0809A-IDA_timeseries.png

The main thing Cuba did was flatten out the pressure field. That makes it a larger storm with more momentum needed to get it going. With convection taking off we should see that soon.

Exactly, western Cuba has rarely had much real effect on a developed tropical system, now that weak sauce ragged tropical stuff we see suffers but IDA certainly wasn't that as it came onshore yesterday afternoon. This system has a real shot at 5, predicting 5's is risky business, they are rare and legendary, fortunately. I give this one a 30% chance but regardless of a 3,4,5, NO is in a very difficult position, who wakes up and says hey I want to evacuate because it's so much fun. However, NO is a wobble or two away from a major hurricane and regardless of the wobble, it's the surge. Surge is far more dangerous than wind so if you are in an evac zone, keep it simple and evac.

If you have never seen surge, do a search on Youtube.

[Shell Mound]

Wind field is very large. The structure is better than 24 hours ago, I think Cuba really broadened this sucker out.

Actually the size is average at best per advisories.