ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[crimi481]

Ahhh. I feel Fred. God train band here in Englewood Fl. I think forecast track a bit off. Ya think?

[stormhunter7]

Based on radar... Looks like the new center is forming over the dry tortugas. Maybe what the gfs was forecasting.

[Sciencerocks]

[crimi481]

What ever that is - its coming right me lol

[hiflyer]

The remnants of Fred may be sniffing the edges of the Loop Current warmer water temps.

[Sciencerocks]

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1426823166446297090

[Dean4Storms]

That vorticity that was further east over Cuba went on to develop this morning just as many of us thought might happen.

[Nimbus]

Has a low level surface pressure profile again still kind of shallow but its not a pie plate.
Centered near NHC position within ~50 miles.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[Dean4Storms]

With this formation further eastward near the UL High, this could feedback much stronger with the outflow channel. Call me concerned for Destin to PC.

[AlphaToOmega]

South Florida dodges another bullet.

[ronjon]

Center on radar is way NE of NHCs current position. More inline with model predictions a couple of days ago. If this verifies, expect huge shift east in Fred's track. Looks like current center on radar close to 25.3-84.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

[NDG]

First vis satellite this morning shows Fred has a closed circulation like the recon is confirming but it is a bit elongated, a tighter one migh form closer to the convection.

[wxman57]

I always say that the center follows the convection. Center may be east of the forecast - way east of the forecast. East of 84W. May go inland near Apalachicola, yet. Lots of shear. Minimal wind threat.

[Airboy]

Looks like a center is around 25.867N 84.683W from recon

[tolakram]

Looks like a solid center to me.

saved loop

[NDG]

X is where the recon found a much defined circulation and lower SLPs. Well seen on vis satellite loop, an upgrade at 11 AM should be coming if not sooner.

[Subtrop]

WTNT61 KNHC 151241
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Fred has regained tropical storm status over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings will be
issued for portions of the northern Gulf coast on the 11 AM EDT/
10 AM CDT/1500 UTC advisory.

SUMMARY OF 840 AM EDT...1240 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 84.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

[NDG]

Officially back to TS Fred.

[Sciencerocks]