ATL: IDA - Models

[Shell Mound]

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL99_2021082500_ECENS_large.png?1629893291

Why are the EPS members much more bearish than the GEFS’s in regard to intensity? I’m seeing differences of ≥ 20 kt between strongest members of both suites.

[ROCK]

again I wouldn't get too hung up on any one model run at this point

But it must be said, The EURO sniffed out this right trend way before. The other globals have followed (except the UKMET which cannot be discarded). it is still hanging on to a mid Texas coast hit. Regardless of past performances you got to give it cretic.

[dantonlsu]

Hopefully in a day we will have a well defined center, which will allow us to have more confidence in the models.

[Tireman4]

From the HGX NWS ( Houston-Galveston)

From the NWS....


What should you do? - Keeping monitoring the forecast from us and
from the NHC for any updates on this system. If monitoring
model cycles on social media, do not put too much stock into
individual model runs. There will be many changes in these from
run to run and from model to model in the next few days as the
details remain in flux. Review your hurricane preparedness plans
and kits to make sure they are up to date. We are entering the
climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, so making
sure those are complete won`t hurt even if you don`t need them
with this potential system.

Fowler

[ROCK]

From the HGX NWS ( Houston-Galveston)

From the NWS....


What should you do? - Keeping monitoring the forecast from us and
from the NHC for any updates on this system. If monitoring
model cycles on social media, do not put too much stock into
individual model runs. There will be many changes in these from
run to run and from model to model in the next few days as the
details remain in flux. Review your hurricane preparedness plans
and kits to make sure they are up to date. We are entering the
climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, so making
sure those are complete won`t hurt even if you don`t need them
with this potential system.

Fowler

Exactly correct. Once we get a COC then G flights up in front that will pin this down.

[SoupBone]

So the 6Z Euro only goes out to 90 hours, but to me if you extrapolate to the end, it would be very close to an LA/TX landfall. Very hard to know though if that's where it ended up.

[hurricane2025]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 6-240.html

[dantonlsu]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/953-w-320-n/2021082506-240.html

Hmm.. Couple of these would be rough for Houston

[HouTXmetro]

The trend is your friend... can't deny the trend is shifting more north and east into Louisiana. But we wait and see.

[SoupBone]

The trend is your friend... can't deny the trend is shifting more north and east into Louisiana. But we wait and see.

There's still no center, thus no real trends yet. The Euro ensembles have the bulk of the members right on top of Houston.

[ROCK]

The trend is your friend... can't deny the trend is shifting more north and east into Louisiana. But we wait and see.

what trend? if the trend is your friend then by this evening every global will have it over Haiti heading out to sea.

[IcyTundra]

Just a reminder that at this time yesterday the GFS had a North Mexico landfall. We will continue to see these shifts in these model runs until we get a COC and the hurricane hunters are able to get data from recon.

[Shell Mound]

The trend is your friend... can't deny the trend is shifting more north and east into Louisiana. But we wait and see.

There's still no center, thus no real trends yet. The Euro ensembles have the bulk of the members right on top of Houston.

https://i.imgur.com/BM5FUIr.png

Those ensemble members are also much more bullish than those on previous runs. Numerous pressures are 975 mb or lower. The “conservative” EPS

[Blinhart]

The crazy thing is we are only about 5 days out from landfall but maybe 2 even 3 days away from this being at least a TD/TS. Makes me wonder if PTC advisories may start sooner than we normally expect.

Real crazy thing is when I stopped reading this around 10:30pm last night, I was not worried that much at all. Now I'm looking at all these models and I'm like if some of these models come true, I might be heading out somewhere Saturday/Sunday, but might not know until the morning of that day. This is really crazy not knowing where and what this is going to be, yet it will be most likely causing a mass evacuation somewhere this weekend. Lake Charles is not nearly ready for another system to hit it, there is ton of houses with still blue tarp roofs, debris is still on the side of the road, buildings still haven't been demolished, and the Chase Building still hasn't put in windows (they still have plywood in their windows). This could pretty much wipe out the city of Lake Charles.

[IcyTundra]

The crazy thing is we are only about 5 days out from landfall but maybe 2 even 3 days away from this being at least a TD/TS. Makes me wonder if PTC advisories may start sooner than we normally expect.

Real crazy thing is when I stopped reading this around 10:30pm last night, I was not worried that much at all. Now I'm looking at all these models and I'm like if some of these models come true, I might be heading out somewhere Saturday/Sunday, but might not know until the morning of that day. This is really crazy not knowing where and what this is going to be, yet it will be most likely causing a mass evacuation somewhere this weekend. Lake Charles is not nearly ready for another system to hit it, there is ton of houses with still blue tarp roofs, debris is still on the side of the road, buildings still haven't been demolished, and the Chase Building still hasn't put in windows (they still have plywood in their windows). This could pretty much wipe out the city of Lake Charles.

Would be a catastrophic scenario for SW Louisiana don't think they can take another Major Hurricane hit. I'm hoping for the sake of SW Louisiana that this goes somewhere else.

[HoustonFrog]

The crazy thing is we are only about 5 days out from landfall but maybe 2 even 3 days away from this being at least a TD/TS. Makes me wonder if PTC advisories may start sooner than we normally expect.

Real crazy thing is when I stopped reading this around 10:30pm last night, I was not worried that much at all. Now I'm looking at all these models and I'm like if some of these models come true, I might be heading out somewhere Saturday/Sunday, but might not know until the morning of that day. This is really crazy not knowing where and what this is going to be, yet it will be most likely causing a mass evacuation somewhere this weekend. Lake Charles is not nearly ready for another system to hit it, there is ton of houses with still blue tarp roofs, debris is still on the side of the road, buildings still haven't been demolished, and the Chase Building still hasn't put in windows (they still have plywood in their windows). This could pretty much wipe out the city of Lake Charles.

Would be a catastrophic scenario for SW Louisiana don't think they can take another Major Hurricane hit. I'm hoping for the sake of SW Louisiana that this goes somewhere else.

There certainly needs to be some deep studies done on why conditions push things to SW Louisiana. Must be something to learn from this consistency.

[Shell Mound]

The crazy thing is we are only about 5 days out from landfall but maybe 2 even 3 days away from this being at least a TD/TS. Makes me wonder if PTC advisories may start sooner than we normally expect.

Real crazy thing is when I stopped reading this around 10:30pm last night, I was not worried that much at all. Now I'm looking at all these models and I'm like if some of these models come true, I might be heading out somewhere Saturday/Sunday, but might not know until the morning of that day. This is really crazy not knowing where and what this is going to be, yet it will be most likely causing a mass evacuation somewhere this weekend. Lake Charles is not nearly ready for another system to hit it, there is ton of houses with still blue tarp roofs, debris is still on the side of the road, buildings still haven't been demolished, and the Chase Building still hasn't put in windows (they still have plywood in their windows). This could pretty much wipe out the city of Lake Charles.

Would be a catastrophic scenario for SW Louisiana don't think they can take another Major Hurricane hit. I'm hoping for the sake of SW Louisiana that this goes somewhere else.

There is plenty of room for 99L to go elsewhere. We are still "early in the game."

[Blinhart]

Real crazy thing is when I stopped reading this around 10:30pm last night, I was not worried that much at all. Now I'm looking at all these models and I'm like if some of these models come true, I might be heading out somewhere Saturday/Sunday, but might not know until the morning of that day. This is really crazy not knowing where and what this is going to be, yet it will be most likely causing a mass evacuation somewhere this weekend. Lake Charles is not nearly ready for another system to hit it, there is ton of houses with still blue tarp roofs, debris is still on the side of the road, buildings still haven't been demolished, and the Chase Building still hasn't put in windows (they still have plywood in their windows). This could pretty much wipe out the city of Lake Charles.

Would be a catastrophic scenario for SW Louisiana don't think they can take another Major Hurricane hit. I'm hoping for the sake of SW Louisiana that this goes somewhere else.

There is plenty of room for 99L to go elsewhere. We are still "early in the game."

5 days from landfall isn't that far away. TWC 10 day forecast for my area has changed a good amount from yesterday, so people and state officials need more than 72 hours to get everything done, yet we don't know anything. It is just a scary situation.

[3090]

Real crazy thing is when I stopped reading this around 10:30pm last night, I was not worried that much at all. Now I'm looking at all these models and I'm like if some of these models come true, I might be heading out somewhere Saturday/Sunday, but might not know until the morning of that day. This is really crazy not knowing where and what this is going to be, yet it will be most likely causing a mass evacuation somewhere this weekend. Lake Charles is not nearly ready for another system to hit it, there is ton of houses with still blue tarp roofs, debris is still on the side of the road, buildings still haven't been demolished, and the Chase Building still hasn't put in windows (they still have plywood in their windows). This could pretty much wipe out the city of Lake Charles.

Would be a catastrophic scenario for SW Louisiana don't think they can take another Major Hurricane hit. I'm hoping for the sake of SW Louisiana that this goes somewhere else.

There is plenty of room for 99L to go elsewhere. We are still "early in the game."

But to be more specific, we are waiting for the opening kickoff. Nothing to see yet.

[bella_may]

NAVGEM landfall around the LA/MS border