ATL: ELSA - Models

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cainjamin
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#161 Postby cainjamin » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:26 pm

Image

Landfall near Cedar Key.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#162 Postby toad strangler » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:26 pm

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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#163 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:46 pm

cainjamin wrote:https://i.imgur.com/oyqonQ1.png

Landfall near Cedar Key.


I would not be surprised if there are more westward shifts later on.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#164 Postby toad strangler » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:50 pm

GEFS

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Last edited by toad strangler on Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#165 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:52 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
cainjamin wrote:https://i.imgur.com/oyqonQ1.png

Landfall near Cedar Key.


I would not be surprised if there are more westward shifts later on.


Anything is possible 5 days out. The Euro is R outlier and GFS is L outlier which in unusual.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#166 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:54 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
cainjamin wrote:https://i.imgur.com/oyqonQ1.png

Landfall near Cedar Key.


I would not be surprised if there are more westward shifts later on.



Maybe ,but with the Euro being east it wouldnt suprise me if east shifts happen
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#167 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:54 pm

Thats my new motto

Shifts Happen. :D
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#168 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:57 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
cainjamin wrote:https://i.imgur.com/oyqonQ1.png

Landfall near Cedar Key.


I would not be surprised if there are more westward shifts later on.



Maybe ,but with the Euro being east it wouldnt suprise me if east shifts happen


Until the Euro starts to initialize conditions better with future Elsa, I am not inclined to consider where it takes her. Oddly enough, it looks like the GFS is once again handling genesis better than the Euro. I really do not trust any model beyond 24 hours. I think we may know a lot more about conditions ahead once we get to the 12z runs tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#169 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:59 pm

In my opinion, anything past 3-5 days in this scenario is almost always pure entertainment. What we see 7 days out will likely not play out that way.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#170 Postby Nimbus » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:00 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
cainjamin wrote:https://i.imgur.com/oyqonQ1.png

Landfall near Cedar Key.


I would not be surprised if there are more westward shifts later on.



Maybe ,but with the Euro being east it wouldnt suprise me if east shifts happen


Model initialization makes a big difference.
We would expect a fairly large initial NW jump in latitude as Elsa closes off and breaks away from the ITCZ.
That hasn't happened yet and a weaker system spinning up later and further west would swing the track the other way.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#171 Postby aspen » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:14 pm

Darn, no 18z HWRF it seems.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#172 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:16 pm

aspen wrote:Darn, no 18z HWRF it seems.


Was just looking for it. :roll:
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#173 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:22 pm

Yep, no 18z Hwrf or HMON it seems
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#174 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:29 pm

18z HWRF hour 57:
Image

www.weathermodels.com has the 18z. It'll be back on Tropical Tidbits @ 00z. This always happens when a system gets upgraded/renumbered/named.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#175 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:30 pm

12z & 18z TVCN consensus is the far right/east outlier going almost east of the Bahamas... Usually the NHC & TVCN are very close in track, this time several hundred miles apart at day 4/5... Unusual IMO...
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#176 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:31 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#177 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:31 pm

Blown Away wrote:12z & 18z TVCN consensus is the far right/east outlier going almost east of the Bahamas... Usually the NHC & TVCN are very close in track, this time several hundred miles apart at day 4/5... Unusual IMO...


Slowly adjust
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#178 Postby Fancy1001 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:35 pm

Kingarabian wrote:18z HWRF hour 57:
https://i.imgur.com/0e8QhMs.png

http://www.weathermodels.com has the 18z. It'll be back on Tropical Tidbits @ 00z. This always happens when a system gets upgraded/renumbered/named.

Can you keep posting updates.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#179 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:37 pm

18z HWRF hour 69:
Image

Hour 60 IR:
Image
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#180 Postby Fancy1001 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:18z HWRF hour 69:
https://i.imgur.com/7vvq5NY.png

Hour 60 IR:
https://i.imgur.com/0HrYO0p.png


Thank you.
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