ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

It’s really annoying how the barometers on these AF planes constantly stop working. We’ll have to wait until the eye dropsonde data comes in to know what the pressure is now and how fast Grace is deepening.

Any persistent recon issues give me PTSD flashbacks to Eta.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[grapealcoholic]

The drop from ~980mb extrapolated and 968mb between the two flights indicates a deepening rate of 1.57 mb/hr. This could pick up as Grace’s eye clears out, but if it continues right up until landfall at approximately 3am tomorrow morning, Grace will peak at around 957mb.

Nah, it will accelerate for sure. RMW will contract as well

[Astromanía]

Wonder if land interaction could prevent more intensification

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like a 1-2mb drop since the last pass. Grace is very quickly intensifying.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[GCANE]

Looks like recon will tag it a bit east of the last fix.

[aspen]

966.1mb extrapolated this pass, although it’s slightly offset from the exact center.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like recon will tag it a bit east of the last fix.

Yeah, pressure looks around 964 mb accounting for the 32 knot SFMR. Does appear to be rapid intensification.

[GCANE]

Seeing TPW increasing over the south CONUS.
This is the majority of the fuel Henri is tapping into.

[GCANE]

Lightning has diminished in the core.
Maybe a sign the eye is becoming saturated.
The drop will tell.

[skyline385]

How did they get a 970 fix, extrapolated was lower...

[Teban54]

Seeing TPW increasing over the south CONUS.
This is the majority of the fuel Henri is tapping into.

Wrong thread

[CrazyC83]

With all the data so far, I'd say 90 kt is reasonable.

[Blown Away]

Besides winter, is there ever a time the BOC is not favorable for development...

[aspen]

IR isn’t looking as impressive, and the pressure might have stabilized. Seems like Grace might be one of those storms that at first is intensifying near landfall, but then halts in the last several hours. Laura did the same thing last year, pausing at 936-940 mb and 125-130 kt in the last six hours before coming ashore.

Edit: okay we have a major. Holy moly that NE quad

[CrazyC83]

I think we may have a major hurricane based on the latest wind data. That supports 105 kt.

[Stormybajan]

Is Grace....nearing Major hurricane status?

[CrazyC83]

Is Grace....nearing Major hurricane status?

Recon supports 105 kt.

[Teban54]

IR isn’t looking as impressive, and the pressure might have stabilized. Seems like Grace might be one of those storms that at first is intensifying near landfall, but then halts in the last several hours. Laura did the same thing last year, pausing at 936-940 mb and 125-130 kt in the last six hours before coming ashore.

Edit: okay we have a major. Holy moly that NE quad

Isn't that IR presentation normal for storms trying to clear an eye, from what I understand?