ATL: HENRI - Models

[tolakram]

Remarkable agreement with the models now. All these at 90-96 hours.

[TheDreamTraveler]

will be nice to get recon there, based of guidance the closer it gets to 29N the more west the tracks take it.

Yeah definitely. I'm super interested to see what they find. I think in a lot of our minds we just don't think a landfall is possible because we haven't had a full on hurricane hit in 30 years and we've seen so many close calls in the past. So far this span of time is one of the longest in their history for not having any hurricane landfalls

[tolakram]

Hurricane models

[ronjon]

Yes but what happens after 90 hrs? Most models now bring Henri into New England after 90 hours: Euro, CMC, ICON, NAVGEM, HWRF, and GFS through Cape Cod. Fortunately they all slowly weaken the system on approach to New England but still will pack a powerful punch.

[ColdMiser123]

I would argue any kind of apparent model agreement currently is pretty tenuous. Still a tremendous amount of spread with the 6z EPS, with solutions ranging from offshore, to inland south of Jersey.

Aircraft data will be extremely helpful in narrowing the ensemble spread.

[tolakram]

:uarrow: Yes but what happens after 90 hrs? Most models now bring Henri into New England after 90 hours: Euro, CMC, ICON, NAVGEM, HWRF, and GFS through Cape Cod. Fortunately they all slowly weaken the system on approach to New England but still will pack a powerful punch.

Waters are too cold to support a hurricane, so the slower it moves the weaker it will be.

[ColdMiser123]

Another update on how well the 18z GFS from yesterday is doing with the BT coordinates.

The 18z GFS from yesterday is now 0.6 degrees too far north for its forecast at 12z today, or ~41 miles. Pretty clear that the path Henri is taking is one different than the one the 18z GFS was trying to advertise at this point.

[ColdMiser123]

Pretty amazing that there are still so many EPS members that showed a north of due west short-term motion, when we know for a fact that kind of motion didn't happen. Those members can be excluded as possible outcomes.

[Jr0d]

My girlfriend's parents are in Connecticut, she is getting worried about their potential impacts. Hopefully, or give the area a glancing blow with the worst stuff staying offshore, however looks like Cape Cod will be getting significant effects.

A slight shift west could make huge difference with surge, as well as timing for tides as the further north you go, the bigger the tidal swings. It is way too early to even guess that timing.

If I remember correctly, the last time the Cape Cod area had a hurricane was Bob in the early 90s.

[crownweather]

My girlfriend's parents are in Connecticut, she is getting worried about their potential impacts. Hopefully, or give the area a glancing blow with the worst stuff staying offshore, however looks like Cape Cod will be getting significant effects.

A slight shift west could make huge difference with surge, as well as timing for tides as the further north you go, the bigger the tidal swings. It is way too early to even guess that timing.

If I remember correctly, the last time the Cape Cod area had a hurricane was Bob in the early 90s.

Yes, last hurricane strike in New England was Bob 30 years ago today (August 19, 1991).

[Woofde]

12z GFS run is weaker and further East. We should have some runs with recon data soon. Hopefully that data will clear up the picture for the models.

[hohnywx]

Don't look at the UKMET if you live on Long Island

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

My thoughts from decades of tracking these storms and almost becoming a pro met -

The models will remain garbage until the recon data (including environmental data) has been inserted into them. Right now, I\d say, it is still 50% for either a strike or a too-close pass out to sea. That said, I am concerned for the coast from NYC north and the coast of SE New England most of all. My gut is telling me to watch out.

[wxman57]

Here is some verification from the Univ. of Albany. GFS and Canadian "lead the pack" as the worst models at 72 hrs. HMON is a close third. TVCN (consensus) is consistently best.

[BobHarlem]

12z Ukmet

[BobHarlem]

12 HMON, slowing down as it arrives here

[tolakram]

12Z Euro init

[SconnieCane]

12z Ukmet
https://i.imgur.com/Lp48duS.png

Ultimate weenie run, unless it's a Cat 4+ into Miami.

[Kohlecane]

12z Ukmet
https://i.imgur.com/Lp48duS.png

As good as the UKMET did with Grace long term, but this is a different set up..tricky tricky..

[tolakram]