ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Zonacane wrote:Henri could be the first major
...if Grace isn't.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Good chance it can get to a cat 1-2 , i do think it can still go out to sea but the chance is there for it come farther west ..
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like there’s still a developing eyewall, as of an 11z microwave pass:

The experimental intensity estimate puts this as a 65 kt Cat 1 hurricane:
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 2108181500

The experimental intensity estimate puts this as a 65 kt Cat 1 hurricane:
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 2108181500
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Video Update on Henri (and Grace, obviously)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R67ab3KoUJc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R67ab3KoUJc
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Wish we had current recon data, appears to be the beginning of a mid-level eye on visible satellite imagery.


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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Henri clearing out his eye, likely a category 2 at this point.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
MSM is going to have a field day with this one if it manages to point at NJ or NY.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like it's trying to clear an eye for sure. That's despite the shear/sheared look.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I spy with my little eye...Hurricane Henri
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
You can see the digging trough to the northeast of Henri in the water vaper imagery that missed. Two strengthening storms are likely to change the upper air steering forecast if they were not modeled at the correct initial intensity.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The towers going off in the eastern wall are obscuring the eye on IR and VIS
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
18/1731 UTC 29.8N 67.1W T4.0/4.0 HENRI -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Interesting upper level interaction between Henri and to some extent the outflow of Grace.


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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tolakram wrote:Interesting upper level interaction between Henri and to some extent the outflow of Grace.
https://i.imgur.com/lhnafEO.gif
I was thinking that the ULL SW of Henri might force the system to travel further west, like another ULL did to Dorian in 2019, by hooking it towards The Bahamas . . .
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Henri is supposed to be heavily sheared today from the north, but I'm wondering if the extra heat getting wrapped around that ULL might put Henri in a more favorable environment. It's really right in between the flows at the moment. I'm not a forecaster, so it's just a guess.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tolakram wrote:Henri is supposed to be heavily sheared today from the north, but I'm wondering if the extra heat getting wrapped around that ULL might put Henri in a more favorable environment. It's really right in between the flows at the moment. I'm not a forecaster, so it's just a guess.
Given the consistent, explosive convective bursts I'd say Henri found a sweet spot.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Great news that recon will go starting on Thursday. See the complete TCPOD at the Henri Recon Thread
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