ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

updated ASCAT. besides some ambiguities from being on the edge... it is pretty clear the llc is consolidated around 12N near or likely now under this current burst.

https://i.ibb.co/Tm446FQ/Capture.png

Not looking great, I am starting think this stays weak until interacting with Hispanola
and ending any chance.

[SFLcane]

Here is the previous ASCAT with Ambiguities removed showing less elongation... this also compares the euro model ( the green arrows) to observed..

models will be adjusting come 6z.

https://i.ibb.co/7YMZrKN/Capture.png

They already are with a complete island tour.

[toad strangler]

Here is the previous ASCAT with Ambiguities removed showing less elongation... this also compares the euro model ( the green arrows) to observed..

models will be adjusting come 6z.

https://i.ibb.co/7YMZrKN/Capture.png

They already are with a complete island tour.

You know better than that. Running the spine of the GA's from SSE to WNW is way too fine of a track this far out. Any subtlety can put a center N or S of everything.

[SFLcane]

Here is the previous ASCAT with Ambiguities removed showing less elongation... this also compares the euro model ( the green arrows) to observed..

models will be adjusting come 6z.

https://i.ibb.co/7YMZrKN/Capture.png

They already are with a complete island tour.

You know better than that. Running the spine of the GA's from SSE to WNW is way too fine of a track this far out. Any subtlety can put a center N or S of everything.

I know I am just bored! Lol..

But just not overly impressed yet and these wanna monsoon crapola invest are really starting to annoy me.

[sma10]

updated ASCAT. besides some ambiguities from being on the edge... it is pretty clear the llc is consolidated around 12N near or likely now under this current burst.

https://i.ibb.co/Tm446FQ/Capture.png

Not looking great, I am starting think this stays weak until interacting with Hispanola
and ending any chance.

Possibly. But way too early, at least 3 days before it would be approaching Hispaniola

[AtlanticWind]

They already are with a complete island tour.

You know better than that. Running the spine of the GA's from SSE to WNW is way too fine of a track this far out. Any subtlety can put a center N or S of everything.

I know I am just bored! Lol..

But just not overly impressed yet and these wanna monsoon crapola invest are really starting to annoy me.

Me too, watching it too closely today,
A lot could change in next few days.

[Spacecoast]

updated ASCAT. besides some ambiguities from being on the edge... it is pretty clear the llc is consolidated around 12N near or likely now under this current burst.

https://i.ibb.co/Tm446FQ/Capture.png

AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)
As of 21:55..

[Woofde]

Don't count this out as getting island shredded yet. This storm has trended west and south quite a bit. If it continues south of predicted it could miss the major island shredders and cruise through the Carribean. It would only need to go 50-75 miles south of where the models currently predict. We are talking about a track still 3 to 5 days away that's not very much and is a realistic possibility. If this slight southern deviation did happen the future of this will be quite different.

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[Hurricaneman]

Jamaica needs to monitor the progress of 94L as it seems to be consolidating south of where the models have it and it’s not gaining latitude as quickly either

[Stormybajan]

Jamaica needs to monitor the progress of 94L as it seems to be consolidating south of where the models have it and it’s not gaining latitude as quickly either

I agree, although it looks like it wont do much east of the lesser antilies ( maybe a bit of rain?) if it keeps to the south and the caribbean has low shear I think there maybe a chance it can form into Fred somewhere south of PR or DR

[Hurricaneman]

Also my track is actually similar to Charley in 2004 but 50kts is my max for this with a landfall between Ft Myers and Cedar Key next week but that can change

[AnnularCane]

They already are with a complete island tour.

You know better than that. Running the spine of the GA's from SSE to WNW is way too fine of a track this far out. Any subtlety can put a center N or S of everything.

I know I am just bored! Lol..

But just not overly impressed yet and these wanna monsoon crapola invest are really starting to annoy me.

If nothing else, think of it as a sign of things to come. Hey, it's the most we've had since Elsa!

[chaser1]

Here is the previous ASCAT with Ambiguities removed showing less elongation... this also compares the euro model ( the green arrows) to observed..

models will be adjusting come 6z.

https://i.ibb.co/7YMZrKN/Capture.png

They already are with a complete island tour.

You know better than that. Running the spine of the GA's from SSE to WNW is way too fine of a track this far out. Any subtlety can put a center N or S of everything.

Absolutely! In fact, Elsa was a great example of that. I knew then and stated several times since, Elsa's general track will be a harbinger of things to come. Right now the models are playing "pin the tail on the donkey". Once they get a decent handle on any increasingly deeper and better organized LLC, we could well be looking at a starkly different scenario. I'm not suggesting 94L will mirror Elsa's track - no two disturbances are exactly alike. Forward motion being the most obvious first distinction that comes to mind. And, by the way.... take a gander at the GFS 18Z 200-800 wind-sheer forecast for 0Z Friday. If we were to have our 2nd TS thus far this year deepening while still traversing through the Eastern Caribbean, present wind shear forecasts suggest a quite favorable upper air pattern "if" a COC were to still be south of the Greater Antilles. I think a potential outcome of us having a minimal hurricane between days 4-5 somewhere south of Western Haiti, the Windward Passage, or Eastern Cuba as a very real possibility. Maybe a track across Hispaniola will disrupt it first. Or maybe, a 10 knot forward speed over warm SST's, along with very favorable upper air might present E. Cuba with a threat greater then Elsa presented.

[ElectricStorm]

2AM EDT
1. A low pressure system located about 380 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could
form while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. The
disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles by
late tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on
Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week.
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with
shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and
flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

Deep convection wrapping around now. Center is still right around 12n. Right aboit where the souther convection is building north. Yoh can see towers moving south and north..

It is not up in that big blob.

Radar also showing the cell movement. Llc us E/ese of barbados still.

[SconnieCane]

Here is the previous ASCAT with Ambiguities removed showing less elongation... this also compares the euro model ( the green arrows) to observed..

models will be adjusting come 6z.

https://i.ibb.co/7YMZrKN/Capture.png

They already are with a complete island tour.

Isaias and Laura would have something to say about that...

[xironman]

Looks like it might race west, not much of a northerly component.

[ouragans]

Invest 94L
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 09, 2021:

Location: 12.8°N 56.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm

[AtlanticWind]

Deep convection wrapping around now. Center is still right around 12n. Right aboit where the souther convection is building north. Yoh can see towers moving south and north..

It is not up in that big blob.

Radar also showing the cell movement. Llc us E/ese of barbados still.

If thats where the llc is its in bad shape convection wise , also a weak system in the southeast
carribean rarely survives

[AtlanticWind]

I think the llc will end up more to the north later today due to reformations.