ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Sandwich saved loop as the visible is just a blob of white at the moment. The bubble is new convection firing and spreading out.

https://i.imgur.com/cL7OJ2p.gif

I also want to mention that some of the tops got near -100°C, which is impressive for a Atlantic Hurricane . . .

[Nimbus]

I'm checking out Google Maps for population centers that might be impacted. Looks like landfall of the core will split the difference between Tampico and Veracruz, which are the only two major coastal cities. It'll probably be north of Jose Cardel, too, and south of Túxpam de Rodríguez Cano. It'll probably come in in that area where Mexican Federal 180 hugs the coast. Sparsely populated, but a lot of little villages along there with a lot of structures not exactly solidly built even against a Cat. 1 (and that's assuming it doesn't dramatically accelerate its intensification from here on).

Túxpam de Rodríguez Cano has a population of over 75,000 in the city which will be getting the worst side of the storm. There are over 135,000 people in the area and the models have been calling for a slow down with rapid intensification for days now so hopefully the city planners have made the necessary evacuations. I hope recon finds only a cat 2 and that gulps some dry air before landfall but this is not good

[tolakram]

saved visible

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/403rdWing/status/1428803228225912833

[cheezyWXguy]

My guess for when recon arrives: 90kt, 971mb

[aspen]

There are two massive hot towers of -75C to -85C convection rotating around each other, with the center likely being around 95W (+/-0.2 degrees). Grace’s eye will probably start to pop out soon.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sanibel]

My guess for when recon arrives: 90kt, 971mb

My guess RI 965...

[grapealcoholic]

Rare to see a storm take full advantage of the enormous energy stored within 31C SSTs

[Sciencerocks]

Rare to see a storm take full advantage of the enormous energy stored within 31C SSTs

It would be rather interesting if this stalled for a few days.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[grapealcoholic]

Rare to see a storm take full advantage of the enormous energy stored within 31C SSTs

It would be rather interesting if this stalled for a few days.

We might be surprised what it can do in 9 hours

[aspen]

Rare to see a storm take full advantage of the enormous energy stored within 31C SSTs

It would be rather interesting if this stalled for a few days.

We might be surprised what it can do in 9 hours

Possibly as much as 12 hours, based on the 5pm forecast.

[Astromanía]

There are not deaths reported in Yucatan penninsula, I don't think this will be the case when it makes it's second landfall

[kevin]

Recon on its way! Now let's see how strong Grace has become. The plane should arrive in about 2 hours.

[grapealcoholic]

It would be rather interesting if this stalled for a few days.

We might be surprised what it can do in 9 hours

Possibly as much as 12 hours, based on the 5pm forecast.

The upper echelon of storms can strengthen at 4-5mb per hour

[ScottNAtlanta]

I would think that we will see an eye pop out pretty soon

[ThetaE]

I'm always captivated by those "dual hot towers" rotating around the eyewall that some storms get when intensifying. Grace has been showing them off the past couple of hours. Very impressive to see. Usually signal of a symmetric/closed eyewall and RI... obviously can't say for sure that's happened til the recon plane gets there, but with absolutely 0 barriers til landfall, I think the ceiling for Grace is quite high.

Last recon pass earlier had 90kt flight level winds in the N and E quadrants. It's pretty easy to imagine, given the remarkable improvements on satellite since, that those sorts of winds (and then some, arguably) have made it to the surface by now.

[tailgater]

There are two massive hot towers of -75C to -85C convection rotating around each other, with the center likely being around 95W (+/-0.2 degrees). Grace’s eye will probably start to pop out soon.

Looks a little like yin and yang

[grapealcoholic]

It's likely not fully closed but once it is, the real intensification should begin