ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Stormgodess]

I am in south Baton Rouge and am getting very worried. I stocked up on some groceries and gas yesterday. I live in a newly developed part of my neighborhood so there are no tall trees to worry about falling on the house. I just have to worry about the fence and keeping any objects from flying into my back windows. Will put everything off the patio and into the garage tomorrow. This could truly be the worst storm the greater Baton Rouge area has ever seen.

Is your house newer construction? Did you oversee the building of it, what sort of braces, or tie downs were used if any? leaving isnt a possibility, if you know anyone with one of those old 50s style brick ranch houses that are built like low bunkers you might want to stay with them? Just my opinion though. I dont trust alot of these newer constructed homes unless I know whats holding them together. Stay safe though *hugs*

[Sciencerocks]

[SconnieCane]

It looks like that Ida's structure has degraded a little bit because of the Isle of Youth Landfall . . .

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/24324876.gif

The convection maybe isn't quite as vigorous as before...for the moment. But the overall structure hasn't changed much.

[Stormgodess]

Recon en route from cape canaveral

edit: looks to be upper level :/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA9-0509A-IDA.png

Yup. For future reference, the label "NOAA9" refers to one particular plane, nicknamed "Gonzo," that doesn't fly into the storm (it's a small jet, vs. the big propeller Orion P3s like Kermit (NOAA2) and Ms. Piggy (NOAA3)). This one's used to sample surrounding environments. If I had to guess, it's going to measure the ridge over the SE US to improve model track forecasts.

Since this morning the outflow is expanding much more symmetrically and they will no doubt find a favorable high pressure dome evolving. Intensity is already hours ahead of the model projection down in the 980's. Looks like some of the models are trying to time an eyewall replacement cycle as IDA tracks over the loop current. 24 mile wide eye is probably going to be kind of restrictive for the volume and velocity of inflow screaming up through there at ~930 mb's. So the core self destructs for a few hours and expands the eye to about 50 miles wide at 947 mb's seems reasonable that may happen sometime.

They are calling for over 10 feet of flood surge now in southern Louisiana and that will extend up all those bayous and salt marshes for miles. 15 inches of rain and that is going to cause a lot of river and stream flooding coming the other way and of course you have a lot of special Lake and Levee risk situations there. Power outages could be weeks. The mangrove bays will absorb some of the surge but I don't think most of us on Storm2k know Louisiana well enough to give evacuation advice other than direct people to their appropriate local alerts.

We seemed to have lost a nice bit of coast land from the storms Katrina onward. The BP oil spill also did a number on much of the mangrove too. There is alot more marsh and water all along the coast than most people realize, even those that live further inland in SE Louisiana. There just isnt alot down there to slow down thing.

[BigB0882]

I am in south Baton Rouge and am getting very worried. I stocked up on some groceries and gas yesterday. I live in a newly developed part of my neighborhood so there are no tall trees to worry about falling on the house. I just have to worry about the fence and keeping any objects from flying into my back windows. Will put everything off the patio and into the garage tomorrow. This could truly be the worst storm the greater Baton Rouge area has ever seen.

Is your house newer construction? Did you oversee the building of it, what sort of braces, or tie downs were used if any? leaving isnt a possibility, if you know anyone with one of those old 50s style brick ranch houses that are built like low bunkers you might want to stay with them? Just my opinion though. I dont trust alot of these newer constructed homes unless I know whats holding them together. Stay safe though *hugs*

I don't know, it was a new build but we bought it as a spec house so we did not over-see construction. Hopefully everything was up to code. I guess we are about to find out. I do feel safe in it, though.

[FLpanhandle91]

Ida appears to have made landfall in Cuba near Playa Dayaniguas.

[Michele B]

I am in south Baton Rouge and am getting very worried. I stocked up on some groceries and gas yesterday. I live in a newly developed part of my neighborhood so there are no tall trees to worry about falling on the house. I just have to worry about the fence and keeping any objects from flying into my back windows. Will put everything off the patio and into the garage tomorrow. This could truly be the worst storm the greater Baton Rouge area has ever seen.

Plan to board up. That'll help keep debris from flying into your windows. Don't wait until they SAY it's coming your way. If you do, you won't be able to find boards/shutters then.

[Shell Mound]

Ida appears to have made landfall in Cuba near Playa Dayaniguas.

Don’t you mean La Demajagua on the Isle of Youth? Radar indicates that the eye is still over the northern edge of the Isle of Youth.

[jasons2k]

***This is a serious situation***

I hope everyone in SE Louisiana/Coastal MS heeds the warnings and gets the heck out. I cannot emphasize this enough - if there is any doubt, play it safe and evacuate. Don't get caught in a predicament where you need to leave and you can't.

If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone you must leave.

[Kazmit]

Ida appears to have made landfall in Cuba near Playa Dayaniguas.

Should only take about 3 hours to cross at its current speed.

[jlauderdal]

I am in south Baton Rouge and am getting very worried. I stocked up on some groceries and gas yesterday. I live in a newly developed part of my neighborhood so there are no tall trees to worry about falling on the house. I just have to worry about the fence and keeping any objects from flying into my back windows. Will put everything off the patio and into the garage tomorrow. This could truly be the worst storm the greater Baton Rouge area has ever seen.

Is your house newer construction? Did you oversee the building of it, what sort of braces, or tie downs were used if any? leaving isnt a possibility, if you know anyone with one of those old 50s style brick ranch houses that are built like low bunkers you might want to stay with them? Just my opinion though. I dont trust alot of these newer constructed homes unless I know whats holding them together. Stay safe though *hugs*

I don't know, it was a new build but we bought it as a spec house so we did not over-see construction. Hopefully everything was up to code. I guess we are about to find out. I do feel safe in it, though.

Evacuate if they tell you too, major hurricanes are a different animal and need to be treated as such. You do not want to make a last-minute run for it if you get cold feet about staying, these systems can intensify on approach beyond what you think it's going to do and what you thought was going to be a 2/3 ends up as a 4 or a 5 and then you are stuck. The setup is there for a 3+, lets see what NHC does with it tomorrow as it will be in the gulf with a clean shot into LA.

[Hurrilurker]

It looks to me like it's not so much the Isle of Youth that's disrupting it, but the inflow over the mountains to the north on the Cuba mainland. In any case, I expect it to reorganize very quickly after it comes off the coast.

[Stormgodess]

Wish I could give this Meteorologist a big ole hug and kiss!

 https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/1431343303300112386

[FormerNewtotex]

It looks to me like it's not so much the Isle of Youth that's disrupting it, but the inflow over the mountains to the north on the Cuba mainland. In any case, I expect it to reorganize very quickly after it comes off the coast.

Will the interaction with land over mainland Cuba have any effect on the track?

[wx98]

https://twitter.com/ryanwadewx/status/1431317550391078919?s=21

Ryan Wade is a good one

[Owasso]

[supercane4867]

The fate of Ida becoming a top tier major hurricane in the Gulf is determined by the passage of Cuba. There will certainly be some degree of structural disruption since the system has already developed an inner core.

How good is western Cuba at disrupting a hurricane core? Even at the widest point, it's 45 miles across with elevations maxing out around 1,600 feet (as far as I can tell from terrain maps).

Depends on various factors including the system's forward speed and intensity at the time of landfall. Gustav crossed the western tip of Cuba and never recovered but many storms crossing at high-end TS to low-end hurricane strength recovered pretty quickly without issues. My guess is that it won't cause that much of a disruption to Ida but it's hard to tell with the current inner core being relatively small.

[Kazmit]

It looks to me like it's not so much the Isle of Youth that's disrupting it, but the inflow over the mountains to the north on the Cuba mainland. In any case, I expect it to reorganize very quickly after it comes off the coast.

Yeah, the Isle of Youth is as flat as the Bahamas so I doubt that would do much.

[bella_may]

It looks to me like it's not so much the Isle of Youth that's disrupting it, but the inflow over the mountains to the north on the Cuba mainland. In any case, I expect it to reorganize very quickly after it comes off the coast.

Will the interaction with land over mainland Cuba have any effect on the track?

If the center reforms then yes

[MississippiWx]

https://i.postimg.cc/cJsJqSz3/089-DEAE3-41-BC-40-CB-85-B7-8861-DB6-F816-D.jpg