ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Keldeo1997]

18z SHIPS

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E90aAOrX0AcbmnU?format=png&name=small

That is insane.

[Nimbus]

Recon en route from cape canaveral

edit: looks to be upper level :/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA9-0509A-IDA.png

Yup. For future reference, the label "NOAA9" refers to one particular plane, nicknamed "Gonzo," that doesn't fly into the storm (it's a small jet, vs. the big propeller Orion P3s like Kermit (NOAA2) and Ms. Piggy (NOAA3)). This one's used to sample surrounding environments. If I had to guess, it's going to measure the ridge over the SE US to improve model track forecasts.

Since this morning the outflow is expanding much more symmetrically and they will no doubt find a favorable high pressure dome evolving. Intensity is already hours ahead of the model projection down in the 980's. Looks like some of the models are trying to time an eyewall replacement cycle as IDA tracks over the loop current. 24 mile wide eye is probably going to be kind of restrictive for the volume and velocity of inflow screaming up through there at ~930 mb's. So the core self destructs for a few hours and expands the eye to about 50 miles wide at 947 mb's seems reasonable that may happen sometime.

They are calling for over 10 feet of flood surge now in southern Louisiana and that will extend up all those bayous and salt marshes for miles. 15 inches of rain and that is going to cause a lot of river and stream flooding coming the other way and of course you have a lot of special Lake and Levee risk situations there. Power outages could be weeks. The mangrove bays will absorb some of the surge but I don't think most of us on Storm2k know Louisiana well enough to give evacuation advice other than direct people to their appropriate local alerts.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z SHIPS

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E90aAOrX0AcbmnU?format=png&name=small

Jeez.

To put this into context, the 18z SHIPS is saying there's a 31% chance Ida could reach 135 knots in 72 hours. I don't recall even Laura having those values.

[BigB0882]

I am in south Baton Rouge and am getting very worried. I stocked up on some groceries and gas yesterday. I live in a newly developed part of my neighborhood so there are no tall trees to worry about falling on the house. I just have to worry about the fence and keeping any objects from flying into my back windows. Will put everything off the patio and into the garage tomorrow. This could truly be the worst storm the greater Baton Rouge area has ever seen.

[cycloneye]

RI.

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1431328875863285763

[TheHurricaneGod]

Well Ida's certainly gotten my attention. I usually only post on here during more serious hurricane threats. On radar it appears that Ida's center is already almost re-entering the Caribbean sea after its short stint on the Isle of Youth.

[bella_may]

https://twitter.com/ryanwadewx/status/1 ... 78919?s=21

[Stormgodess]

I very much doubt that this storm only increases to a Cat 3 with 2 days over the Gulf with a loop current crossing. Gulf SST's are even warmer than where it is now. Unless some shear sneaks in unexpectedly Ida is going to explode in intensity.

And we are running out of time. Many rural folks inland, will not be able to get out if Baton Rouge or New Orleans calls for Mand evacs.

I posted this comment to the NWS/New Orleans Facebook post about the 1pm update that no changes to track or intensity. I realize there are Pros here, and I truly mean no disrespect. I just wish more Pros willing to take the chance of being wrong, and erring on the side of caution, and being passionate about getting the warning out. Instead of just repeating word for word what the NWS says


"I understand you guys are all about the science. But PLEASE PLEASE be frank, outspoken and up front about the possible intensity this storm could reach! Because Im telling you people in areas that are a bit more inland, and who have never had that worse case scenerio happen in their lifetime...JUST AREN"T GETTING IT! Back in the day you would have the occasional local meteorologist that would care more about the people than about possibly being wrong, and put the full warning out there. We dont have that anymore. They all simply repeast what you all say. And I understand that is good in a way, but sometimes lives can be lost because of it Sorry for the rant but I was up all night after following the data all day yesterday, knowing in my heart when I saw all those spaghetti models so tight, yesterday mornning, so far out, and the temps in the Gulf... That this thing was a potential MONSTER. None the less thank you for all you do"

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://twitter.com/ryanwadewx/status/1431317550391078919?s=21

I'll help you with that

 https://twitter.com/ryanwadewx/status/1431317550391078919




As an FYI some people might not be aware that there is a preview button so you can can check to see if your post is formatted correctly before you post it.

[Nimbus]

I am in south Baton Rouge and am getting very worried. I stocked up on some groceries and gas yesterday. I live in a newly developed part of my neighborhood so there are no tall trees to worry about falling on the house. I just have to worry about the fence and keeping any objects from flying into my back windows. Will put everything off the patio and into the garage tomorrow. This could truly be the worst storm the greater Baton Rouge area has ever seen.

Levee is about 47 feet there but some of the newer development housing isn't cinder block construction and the windows are kind of light duty. Generators burn through a lot of gas so its hard to go for more than a week without power.

[BigB0882]

The NWS put out extremely strong wording before Katrina struck. I don't recall how far in advance it was but I don't see them going with that kind of wording until it is already reaching major status.

[Iceresistance]

It looks like that Ida's structure has degraded a little bit because of the Isle of Youth Landfall . . .

[AlabamaDave]

The fate of Ida becoming a top tier major hurricane in the Gulf is determined by the passage of Cuba. There will certainly be some degree of structural disruption since the system has already developed an inner core.

How good is western Cuba at disrupting a hurricane core? Even at the widest point, it's 45 miles across with elevations maxing out around 1,600 feet (as far as I can tell from terrain maps).

[artist]

Guys, be sure to check out the new forum here at S2K, hurricanetrack with Mark Sudduth. He has a live cam in his way to Ms now here
viewtopic.php?f=92&t=122158&p=2932840&sid=a5352f0add3dbf0f05fb6eaf984afdfc#p2932840
to document hurricane Ida.

[ScottNAtlanta]

That little westward jog is going to mean less time over Cuba

[skyline385]

It looks like that Ida's structure has degraded a little bit because of the Isle of Youth Landfall . . .

Imo it looks like the wind field is expanding to the N quadrant, it no longer looks sheared and is looking very healthy

[artist]

Everyone near Ida’s path be sure to take this seriously. S2k has many different posts to help you be prepared.

[ElectricStorm]

There may be a small chance that Ida gets a little more disrupted than expected by Cuba since it already has a core. Not sure if that will happen or not. Since it's only going to be over land for a couple hours I don't think it will hurt it much but any disruption will help

[BensonTCwatcher]

2 days ago I was amazed looking at models and comparing to observations. HWRF, GFS, and Euro. It was apparent that this would develop but there was the ULL, the PV streamer, and no center formed. Even yesterday - not organized, but organizing. Ida verified the models on cyclogenesis and track but the intensity has outdone the most aggressive model at this point. I think we will easily see Cat 3 and most likely strong Cat 4 in the Gulf. I'm not sold on Cat 5 and not at landfall. Too many things have to be just right. Ocean heat content aside- dry air and shear are not out of the question. Concern has always been "wait till it gets in the Gulf" thinking on this one based on the models. Not sure I would evacuate based on models alone most of the time but we all this coming 2 days ago or more on this board when the consensus was there. What you need is time to avoid hurricanes and the Met. community and S2K have given us that in the last 20 years. For Ida...I'd use the time well.

[jlauderdal]

It looks like that Ida's structure has degraded a little bit because of the Isle of Youth Landfall . . .

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/24324876.gif

Minimal

The conditions are so favorable in the gulf that recovery and intensification will be rapid. Major hurricane at landfall and hopefully people are preparing as such. At this point, it's all about hoping your house stays intact if you are in the eyewall.