ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

One important thing for everyone to keep in mind as this storm approaches it’s US landfall, wherever that may be, is that there will be the chance of an EWRC and let’s hope and pray for everyone that it times out to happen just before landfall. Unfortunately no one can plan for this and should have ZERO bearing on prep and evac but we can certainly be hopeful in terms of all impacts. Maybe this is more likely now that Ida has become a hurricane ahead of schedule

ERWC will just expand the wind field

[FLpanhandle91]

I wish recon was still there and Key West radar was working. It looks like, at least on IR, that Ida's heading over the last hour or so has been around 280 or 290. Looks to have almost exited the northwest side of the the Isle of Youth and heading for the fat western tip of Cuba.

[grapealcoholic]

I wish recon was still there and Key West radar was working. It looks like, at least on IR, that Ida's heading over the last hour or so has been around 280 or 290. Looks to have almost exited the northwest side of the the Isle of Youth and heading for the fat western tip of Cuba.

It's coming off the southwest tip

[Hurrilurker]

If I were near the coast anywhere between Lafayette and New Orleans I'd be preparing to get out of there right now. At the very least, check your supplies (including fresh water, flashlights, and batteries) and locate an inland shelter if you need it. I'd probably wait for a few more updates on the track (including the atmospheric sampling recon they're doing right now) to actually make a move but don't wait too long. Storm surge could be extreme and many roads near the coast will likely become impassable.

[Shell Mound]

One important thing for everyone to keep in mind as this storm approaches it’s US landfall, wherever that may be, is that there will be the chance of an EWRC and let’s hope and pray for everyone that it times out to happen just before landfall. Unfortunately no one can plan for this and should have ZERO bearing on prep and evac but we can certainly be hopeful in terms of all impacts. Maybe this is more likely now that Ida has become a hurricane ahead of schedule

ERWC will just expand the wind field

...and thereby exacerbate fetch and surge over a wide(r) area. Shear-induced weakening without a pre-landfall ERC would be the best-case scenario at this point.

Regardless, this will likely be a potentially historic event for portions of Louisiana, and will deliver a wide variety of significant hazards. Everyone should be ready.

[crimi481]

Creating feeder bans over s Florida. This thing will be huge

[grapealcoholic]

[StAuggy]

One important thing for everyone to keep in mind as this storm approaches it’s US landfall, wherever that may be, is that there will be the chance of an EWRC and let’s hope and pray for everyone that it times out to happen just before landfall. Unfortunately no one can plan for this and should have ZERO bearing on prep and evac but we can certainly be hopeful in terms of all impacts. Maybe this is more likely now that Ida has become a hurricane ahead of schedule

ERWC will just expand the wind field

I guess I am mistaken in thinking that during the transition of the cycle the storm sees a drop in intensity and it isn’t until the EWRC is completed that the overall wind field expands. So it would be constantly expanding during any part of an EWRC?

[Blinhart]

I am sorry to post this but I have family in Lake Charles and Gueydan LA......they do not want to leave. We are trying to get good info to them. Shouldn't they evacuate? I am in coastal Texas so I apologize, I have no idea about LA. Thank you for any insight you can provide, you guys are the best!

If they stayed for Laura good luck talking them out of this. Some people are just like that (see: Conch Republic and the Outer Banks locals)

Well 60 miles makes a big difference on evacuating. Also Category makes a difference. Cat 3 me and most people around here will be staying. Now if it is a Cat 4 or stronger it depends on where it makes landfall, Morgan City or East (no), Calcasieu Pass or West (no), Vermillion Bay to Calcasieu Pass (yes), so most of us are waiting to Tomorrow to decide.

[cycloneye]

70kts.

AL, 09, 2021082718, , BEST, 0, 216N, 827W, 70, 987, HU

[Smurfwicked]

I know looks can be deceiving but it surely looks like it has much more of a westerly component to the movement in the past few hours. Many hours ago it looked to be moving almost NNW and now it appears to be moving WNW. Also I realize that the current track is based firmly on a combination of the current location of the ridge and it's future erosion but unsure which variable is more in play. Basically what I'd like to know is the track guidance with expectation to the current location of ridge with little to do with the erosion of the ridge or is the ridge expected to erode and that is the steering factor at play here?

I ask this because if I remember correctly during Rita the ridge was supposed to move around an eroding ridge that didn't erode as predicted and the track inevitably went further and further west. I apologize in advance if this has been better clarified already but I normally stay pretty focused with storms here during peak season but have been distracted by other types of disasters happening elsewhere in the world.

[Hammy]

I wish recon was still there and Key West radar was working. It looks like, at least on IR, that Ida's heading over the last hour or so has been around 280 or 290. Looks to have almost exited the northwest side of the the Isle of Youth and heading for the fat western tip of Cuba.

It's coming off the southwest tip

Cuba has good radar coverage

[Sambucol]

I wish recon was still there and Key West radar was working. It looks like, at least on IR, that Ida's heading over the last hour or so has been around 280 or 290. Looks to have almost exited the northwest side of the the Isle of Youth and heading for the fat western tip of Cuba.

Is 280 or 290 more of a west heading?

[bohai]

I have a friend that lives in Morgan City and he and wife have decided to stay. They are inside the storm protection levee but I am not sure the levee was designed for this monster of a storm. Prayers for them

[HurricaneEnzo]

I wish recon was still there and Key West radar was working. It looks like, at least on IR, that Ida's heading over the last hour or so has been around 280 or 290. Looks to have almost exited the northwest side of the the Isle of Youth and heading for the fat western tip of Cuba.

Is 280 or 290 more of a west heading?

280 is more Westerly.

[rw1984]

I wish recon was still there and Key West radar was working. It looks like, at least on IR, that Ida's heading over the last hour or so has been around 280 or 290. Looks to have almost exited the northwest side of the the Isle of Youth and heading for the fat western tip of Cuba.

Is 280 or 290 more of a west heading?

Yes. 310-320 is NW, 280-300 would be more West.

[supercane4867]

The fate of Ida becoming a top tier major hurricane in the Gulf is determined by the passage of Cuba. There will certainly be some degree of structural disruption since the system has already developed an inner core.

[Sambucol]

I wish recon was still there and Key West radar was working. It looks like, at least on IR, that Ida's heading over the last hour or so has been around 280 or 290. Looks to have almost exited the northwest side of the the Isle of Youth and heading for the fat western tip of Cuba.

Is 280 or 290 more of a west heading?

280 is more Westerly.

Thank you. I'm in SETX, and am still watching this storm closely I don't trust the track right now. Once it's in the GOM, I'm guessing we will know for sure.

[grapealcoholic]

18z SHIPS

[InfernoFlameCat]

Best looking Cat 1 storm I've ever seen

Not for me. Iota was IMO.