ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

Hurricane Ida is here and way sooner than expected. It seems like the stars are aligned to give Ida every single favorable characteristic: Nora won't be a problem, it'll go exactly over the warmest waters, low shear forecast, landfall over what's basically the flattest area in the entire Caribbean. It has all the ingredients to become one of the infamous big ones. Is there anything I've forgotten about that might be able to put a lid on Ida?

If Ida develops an inner core too quickly, it could be a hinderance to intensification past Cuba, as Ida's old inner core could be in a war with the inner one before reaching the loop current.

Is that what causes some really intense storms to sometimes just peter out for no apparent reason??? How much of a possibility is there to this happening in this case? And how much does the optimal conditions around her play into whether such a thing happens or not?

Sorry for all the questions, just grasping for a glimmer of hope

Note that the guidance shows RI levelling off in the last twelve hours pre-landfall, possibly due to increasing westerly shear (that is evident on HWRF’s IR simulated).

Edit: the 12Z ECMWF for the first (?) time indicates weakening before landfall, with the MSLP rising from a low of 939 mb to a value of 947 mb over the LA shoreline.

[Blinhart]

Hope people in the Gulf Coast are paying attention. People get busy with work/life and this one came up fast. The stores/gas stations/roads in the area are going to be complete chaos tomorrow.

My cousin and her husband are planning to leave overnight tonight. She went through Michael in Panama City and Zeta in New Orleans and she doesn’t want anything to do with this. I agree though; traffic is gonna be snarled but midday tomorrow.

If I'm leaving tomorrow which is when I'm deciding I will not be taking I-10, I-12 from Lafayette to Mobile, I will be going up to Monroe and taking I-20 to go to Columbus, Ga. (got family there), will probably take 2 or 3 hours longer that way, but will be better than trying to go through the evacuation traffic.

[IcyTundra]

I am sorry to post this but I have family in Lake Charles and Gueydan LA......they do not want to leave. We are trying to get good info to them. Shouldn't they evacuate? I am in coastal Texas so I apologize, I have no idea about LA. Thank you for any insight you can provide, you guys are the best!

Lake Charles should be fine Gueydan should be a little closer to where it makes landfall but also should mostly be fine. I would tell them to keep an eye on the forecast just in case it shifts any further west but they are most likely going to avoid any serious impacts.

[Blinhart]

Certainly looking like a proper hurricane now, all that messiness from yesterday is gone (like, you can actually tell where the center is now without guessing). Not going to be surprised to see an eye pop very shortly after it exits Cuba. I won't even be shocked if we see one before it gets to Cuba mainland.

Need more recon!!

https://i.imgur.com/FguWWqj.png

Since they are moving the Hunters from Gulfport to San Antonio, why can't they start the 3 hour fixes tonight by separating the take offs from Gulfport by 3 hours and head to Ida then to San Antonio.

[Kohlecane]

Wouldn't be surprised to see it hit MH by or right before 25N

[LadyBug72]

I am sorry to post this but I have family in Lake Charles and Gueydan LA......they do not want to leave. We are trying to get good info to them. Shouldn't they evacuate? I am in coastal Texas so I apologize, I have no idea about LA. Thank you for any insight you can provide, you guys are the best!

Lake Charles should be fine Gueydan should be a little closer to where it makes landfall but also should mostly be fine. I would tell them to keep an eye on the forecast just in case it shifts any further west but they are most likely going to avoid any serious impacts.

Thank you so much!

[Blinhart]

I am sorry to post this but I have family in Lake Charles and Gueydan LA......they do not want to leave. We are trying to get good info to them. Shouldn't they evacuate? I am in coastal Texas so I apologize, I have no idea about LA. Thank you for any insight you can provide, you guys are the best!

We really won't know that until tomorrow. This is a very scary scenario right now. I live about 10 miles (as the crow flies) from Gueydan and don't know what to do.

[SconnieCane]

Hurricane Ida is here and way sooner than expected. It seems like the stars are aligned to give Ida every single favorable characteristic: Nora won't be a problem, it'll go exactly over the warmest waters, low shear forecast, landfall over what's basically the flattest area in the entire Caribbean. It has all the ingredients to become one of the infamous big ones. Is there anything I've forgotten about that might be able to put a lid on Ida?

If Ida develops an inner core too quickly, it could be a hinderance to intensification past Cuba, as Ida's old inner core could be in a war with the inner one before reaching the loop current.

Is that what causes some really intense storms to sometimes just peter out for no apparent reason??? How much of a possibility is there to this happening in this case? And how much does the optimal conditions around her play into whether such a thing happens or not?

Sorry for all the questions, just grasping for a glimmer of hope

What was described there sounds like a standard eyewall replacement cycle. Sometimes if a major hurricane's core gets significantly disrupted by land interaction or other unfavorable conditions, even after it moves back out over warm water/into better conditions, it can take a long time for it to wind back up (Ike's brush with the entire length of Cuba is a classic example, it took until almost Texas landfall to start to bring the MSW back up, but the massive surge was already there). However, Ida will be briefly crossing over the narrow part of Cuba, and that shouldn't affect it much if at all. Maybe a slight pause in intensification.

[stormhunter7]

tracking right over isle of youth.

[grapealcoholic]

Still jogging west. Looks like it will miss the rougher terrain on the west end of Cuba

[Woofde]

I very much doubt that this storm only increases to a Cat 3 with 2 days over the Gulf with a loop current crossing. Gulf SST's are even warmer than where it is now. Unless some shear sneaks in unexpectedly Ida is going to explode in intensity.

[Kohlecane]

tracking right over isle of youth. http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/02IJuventud/pdeMAXw01a.gif

seems more of a WNW movement as opposed to earlier, but that was most likely and northern movement when it was aligning earlier
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

[GCANE]

3500 CAPE over N Yucatan. Firing off convection. Moisture from the remnant convection will flow into Ida and add fuel to the fire,

[SconnieCane]

On the IR loop Ida's CDO appears to be "boiling" in similar fashion to Delta's during its crazy RI to a Cat. 4 last year, with the eye not visible only because hot towers are going up so fast that cirrus keeps covering it.

[p1nheadlarry]

I am sorry to post this but I have family in Lake Charles and Gueydan LA......they do not want to leave. We are trying to get good info to them. Shouldn't they evacuate? I am in coastal Texas so I apologize, I have no idea about LA. Thank you for any insight you can provide, you guys are the best!

If they stayed for Laura good luck talking them out of this. Some people are just like that (see: Conch Republic and the Outer Banks locals)

[GCANE]

Warm core showing up on IR.
Lightning flashes around it indicating the eyewall.

[jlauderdal]

Warm core showing up on IR.
Lightning flashes around it indicating the eyewall.

Big CAPE too

[Shell Mound]

At this point I think westerly shear near the time of landfall is the only factor that could inhibit Ida from being a worst-case scenario. In any event, it will still be very severe. All other factors are favourable: minimal interaction with land, high PWATs, dual outflow channels, exceptionally high TCHP associated with the Loop Current, and a well-established inner core, along with faster-than-expected short-term intensification. As mentioned, the only bit of good news is that the guidance suggests that Ida’s RI will begin to level off within twelve hours of landfall, and the latest ECMWF shows Ida filling from a minimum of 939 mb to 947 mb by the time of landfall. The HWRF’s simulated IR also shows westerly shear beginning to impinge on Ida’s western half as the storm nears and undergoes landfall. Virtually nothing else stands in Ida’s way until then, and the storm is quite likely to become a Category-5 TC within the next few days, followed by some possible weakening before LF.

[StAuggy]

One important thing for everyone to keep in mind as this storm approaches it’s US landfall, wherever that may be, is that there will be the chance of an EWRC and let’s hope and pray for everyone that it times out to happen just before landfall. Unfortunately no one can plan for this and should have ZERO bearing on prep and evac but we can certainly be hopeful in terms of all impacts. Maybe this is more likely now that Ida has become a hurricane ahead of schedule

[TheDreamTraveler]

At this point I think westerly shear near the time of landfall is the only factor that could inhibit Ida from being a worst-case scenario. In any event, it will still be very severe. All other factors are favourable: minimal interaction with land, high PWATs, dual outflow channels, exceptionally high TCHP associated with the Loop Current, and a well-established inner core, along with faster-than-expected short-term intensification. As mentioned, the only bit of good news is that the guidance suggests that Ida’s RI will begin to level off within twelve hours of landfall, and the latest ECMWF shows Ida filling from a minimum of 939 mb to 947 mb by the time of landfall. The HWRF’s simulated IR also shows westerly shear beginning to impinge on Ida’s western half as the storm nears and undergoes landfall. Virtually nothing else stands in Ida’s way until then, and the storm is quite likely to become a Category-5 TC within the next few days, followed by some possible weakening before LF.

I wouldn't say quite likely to become a cat 5. Getting cat 5's is extremely hard but I feel Ida will definitely try its hardest to top itself out as much as it can. Definitely cat 4 material here