ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I will say this much about Elsa. Back in 2014, I let my guard down with Arthur because I thought "hey it is early July, too soon for a big storm especially this far north". Arthur became the worst tropical system to impact this region in over twenty years (since Bob in 1991). Parts of Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia didn't have power for two months. Some of these same areas were fifty miles inland yet experience hours of hurricane-force winds (gusts) and heavy rain. Just because it is July doesn't mean anyone should underestimate Elsa. We've had a strange year already for weather.

[GCANE]

Looks like models are way off on this.
A recurring theme for the last few years.

CAPE is very high in the east Carib with a nice anchored UL High.

Starting to take a good, detailed look at this.
I expect more surprises down the road.

Welcome back GCANE!

What do you think of our Elsa?

Thanks so much, its a pleasure to be back for another season.
Elsa looks surprising well. We maybe in for a season of surprises.
What's your thinking BYG?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

St. Lucia is seeing gusts over hurricane force.

The recon did not sample the strongest winds, and Elsa is most definitely still a hurricane. Just with very high pressures.

[crownweather]

I will say this much about Elsa. Back in 2014, I let my guard down with Arthur because I thought "hey it is early July, too soon for a big storm especially this far north". Arthur became the worst tropical system to impact this region in over twenty years (since Bob in 1991). Parts of Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia didn't have power for two months. Some of these same areas were fifty miles inland yet experience hours of hurricane-force winds (gusts) and heavy rain. Just because it is July doesn't mean anyone should underestimate Elsa. We've had a strange year already for weather.

Even in Caribou (about 150 miles inland), wind gusts were upwards of 60 mph during Arthur in 2014. And you are right, it felt bizarre to have a hurricane this far north during Fourth of July weekend.

[Ritzcraker]

Based on the setup we need a NOAA plane to go out and sample the upper atmosphere before we can trust those models. Just my opinion…

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like models are way off on this.
A recurring theme for the last few years.

CAPE is very high in the east Carib with a nice anchored UL High.

Starting to take a good, detailed look at this.
I expect more surprises down the road.

Welcome back GCANE!

What do you think of our Elsa?

Thanks so much, its a pleasure to be back for another season.
Elsa looks surprising well. We maybe in for a season of surprises.
What's your thinking BYG?

Conditions look ripe for a major, horrifyingly. The only inhibitor would be the mountains of Hispanola

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I hope and pray Elsa frizzles out somehow. But, if it does have to hit somewhere please let it stay far away from the Miami area. If Elsa hit Miami after what has happened, I don't want to even consider that option yet......

[abajan]

Probably 55-60kts now:

02/0530 UTC 12.2N 57.1W T3.5/3.5 ELSA -- Atlantic

almost certainly ..

pulse down has begun ... 12 more hours pulse back up.. ( assuming environment remains conducive) eye begins to show up on visible as a wobbling dark spot.

fun fun..

Not for me. Lots of reports of blown off roofs. For a while (especially around 7:45 am), I thought I would lose mine too. Scary as heck, man!

[tolakram]

Shear, or lack of it. Only issue would be self shear due to forward speed.

[Shell Mound]

Welcome back GCANE!

What do you think of our Elsa?

Thanks so much, its a pleasure to be back for another season.
Elsa looks surprising well. We maybe in for a season of surprises.
What's your thinking BYG?

Conditions look ripe for a major, horrifyingly. The only inhibitor would be the mountains of Hispanola

The very strong outflow developing in all quadrants would suggest an efficient exhaust-engine that helps negate the otherwise rapid forward speed, so net shear may be lower than one might expect. The CDO is already developing an upside-down, comma-type appearance, with strong convection developing and expanding both to its immediate east and west. The only possible bright spot, as far as data are concerned, is that a well-defined, stadium-type eye may clear out by tomorrow evening, so that would aid reconnaissance in assimilating data for the models. Anyway, both Barbados and St. Lucia have clearly sustained a hurricane-force beating.

[Nimbus]

Don't want to pull the trigger until I see the whites of its eyes but I'm close to making the full hurricane evacuation call for the household...Stay calm, evaluate today...I think I have one good cane still in me...

Florida tax free week started yesterday, Walmart had plenty of those cheap LED lanterns that last 30 hours. Fresh batteries.

[JPmia]

This is going to be a major hurricane isn't it

[jlauderdal]

Based on the setup we need a NOAA plane to go out and sample the upper atmosphere before we can trust those models. Just my opinion…

Yep, the models have been struggling but the TCVN seems to have settled down, once the euro comes to terms with reality then NHC can really drill down, the west coast of Florida up to the big bend for now but these ridges have been underestimated more times than not the last few years even with planes sampling for days so as far west as New Orleans is in play.

[NDG]

Elsa is tracking right over the Volcano in St Vincent

[kevin]

This is going to be a major hurricane isn't it

Will be interesting to see what the models do with the new initilization data based on recon (even though I think recon wasn't soon enough to include it in 12z, so we'll probably have to wait until 18z/00z). But based on observations and future expected conditions this does have MH potential.

[hurricanes1234]

Even down here in T&T, we've been getting feeder band effects and the entire country is under an adverse weather alert, as well as a localised flood alert.

We had an incredible amount of rain, lightning and thunder just before midnight last night and the whole sky lit up with insane anvil crawlers. As Elsa passes to the north, more rain is expected throughout today and even tomorrow.

Praying everyone stays safe.

[aspen]

The next recon plane is taking off, and it’s starting from 70W — much closer to Elsa than the previous flight, so hopefully it’ll be able to stay for longer.

[Shell Mound]

Elsa is tracking right over the Volcano in St Vincent

https://i.imgur.com/uUek3bM.jpg

Based on that radar image, in-situ observations thus far, and satellite trends, I think the MSW are likely close to 80 kt currently (borderline Cat 1/2).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This is going to be a major hurricane isn't it

Let's hope not, but I fear things are headed that way....

[Hurricaneman]

This is going to be a major hurricane isn't it

The NHC says no for now but intensity forecasting is extremely difficult so indeed in could become a major but I give that a 10% chance of happening