ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

That ULL is hanging on... it's been sitting there for a whole week.

http://i.imgur.com/ks1A9Z1h.gif

The ULL has been moving slowly westward during the past few days.
A very tricky situation is coming up, it all depends how far west the ULL continues to move west, any little more breathing room Fred has from the ULL the more of a break it could have from the shear.

[Kohlecane]

That ULL is hanging on... it's been sitting there for a whole week.

http://i.imgur.com/ks1A9Z1h.gif

The ULL has been moving slowly westward during the past few days.
A very tricky situation is coming up, it all depends how far west the ULL continues to move west, any little more breathing room Fred has from the ULL the more of a break it could have from the shear.

https://i.imgur.com/mLKkVO0.gif

looks to move W towards LA in 24 hours, question is is that gonna allow enough time for the environment to become more favorable. That is just going off the 06Z GFS so we will see.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I do not think Fred is a TC right now.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I dont know what JB is looking at (besides the MJO) but he has been saying for days that he has fears that this could feedback and be a hurricane at landfall. I just dont see it right now

[Woofde]

I dont know what JB is looking at (besides the MJO) but he has been saying for days that he has fears that this could feedback and be a hurricane at landfall. I just dont see it right now

The water is 30-31C, if shear relaxes and Fred manages to actually get any convection going it could ramp up very quickly. It doesn't take long to get a dirty hurricane with water this warm and favorable rising motion.

[Sciencerocks]

[ScottNAtlanta]

That does not look like a strengthening circulation to me

[MGC]

Fred looks like a remnant low this morning. Hispaniola did a number on him. Over warm water so the potential of a comeback is great.....MGC

[Woofde]

That does not look like a strengthening circulation to me

It's terrible looking at the moment no doubt. A lot of that is because of the shear currently present over Fred. Its just that a lot of the models seem to think that shear will begin to subside over the next 24 hours and Fred may be able to begin regenerating.

[ObsessedMiami]

Just a comment: As weak and disorganized as Fred is, I am still amazed that a potentially Florida landfalling system is generating so little posting action on here. Weird

[robbielyn]

I dont know what JB is looking at (besides the MJO) but he has been saying for days that he has fears that this could feedback and be a hurricane at landfall. I just dont see it right now

Well I don't know about him specifically but accuweather's Senior Met Tony Zartman says the sheer may end up venting the storm vs hindering it in the long run. who knows. I hope it stays really weak as I live in this area two counties north of tampa/clearwater.

[robbielyn]

Just a comment: As weak and disorganized as Fred is, I am still amazed that a potentially Florida landfalling system is generating so little posting action on here. Weird

Because there is not much to talk about. When it starts regenerating if it does, they will come back, they always do. Otherwise the forecast is for more rain not much wind and florida is used to that. S. FL could use the rain more than us up here though. We have had too much already.

[toad strangler]

Looks like recon is finding nothing put high pressure

[robbielyn]

Looks like recon is finding nothing put high pressure

Fred sure has a nice swirl going though.

[Sailingtime]

Just a comment: As weak and disorganized as Fred is, I am still amazed that a potentially Florida landfalling system is generating so little posting action on here. Weird

I think it's because of a couple of factors.
1) People are trying really hard right now to have some type of "normal" life (covid, kids going back to school etc)
2) Floridians do keep an eye on all tropical systems but when they are weak and they believe they will only be a rain event with non-damaging winds then they do go about daily life as normal.
3) Storm 2k folks always want to make a CAT 4 or 5 out of almost every storm and right now, it doesn't look like those types of forecasts are going to be realistic.

[hipshot]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3977/NPRuDc.gif

If the LLC is just north of the eastern tip of Cuba, it sure looks like it is paralleling the Cuban coast and trying to get organized.

[AutoPenalti]

There's also the possibility that a new LLC could reform to the east where all that convection seems to be persisting.

[BobHarlem]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3977/NPRuDc.gif

If the LLC is just north of the eastern tip of Cuba, it sure looks like it is paralleling the Cuban coast and trying to get organized.

That band to the north of it is firing up east to west and about to wrap around, there are signs it's attempting to reorganize, not sure if the shear will let it get far though. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... &length=24

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fred is re-acquiring rain bands. I believe he will soon regenerate. 6 hours is my estimate before the bands moisten the environment enough for Fred to shoot his first hot tower post Hispaniola.

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/7JXGQVvhCNc[/youtube]