ATL: GRACE - Models

[IcyTundra]

It will be interesting to see if the GFS has any type of consistency with its runs tomorrow. Knowing how the GFS has been behaving lately it will completely drop development tomorrow.

[Category5Kaiju]

This run just seems to be asking what if Dorian went to the Carolinas at full strength

Nah, it's more like what kind of nasty scenario would unfold when you combine a Dorian with a Florence.

[Hurricaneman]

Also shows a bend west into the Bahamas, if this keeps showing up I would keep an eye out from the Bahamas and the east coast from the southern tip of Florida to Boston

[ElectricStorm]

Geez GFS going crazy with this thing tonight. Yeah we'll see what the next run shows...

[ElectricStorm]

NC about to get nailed this run...

[caneseddy]

Also shows a bend west into the Bahamas, if this keeps showing up I would keep an eye out from the Bahamas and the east coast from the southern tip of Florida to Boston

Indeed that west turn towards the Bahamas indicates some ridging overhead. My gut feeling is that subsequent runs of the GFS will start shifting more SW closer to Florida. Same thing happened with Irma where GFS starting towards Carolinas and then shifted SW to South Florida/Keys

[caneseddy]

NC about to get nailed this run...

952mb landfall on Outer Banks

[Category5Kaiju]

I am going to be in college in far Eastern Virginia by the end of this month, and I really despise this GFS run.

[Fancy1001]

Looks like an enormous category three or four headed for Cape Hatteras

[Keldeo1997]

GFS is basically Dorian but much worse US Impacts

[Fancy1001]

Can we just appreciate how large it gets In this run.

[ElectricStorm]

Look how huge it is! That would be a ton of surge. Luckily this likely won't happen

[Category5Kaiju]

Can we just appreciate how large it gets In this run.

Of course it's one GFS run, but if this verifies, the name "Grace" will almost surely be a retired name and go down in wx history as an infamous storm.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well that GFS run is basically Dorian 2.0 on the Bahama approach. Things may be interesting with this after all. Looks like lots of model watching ahead.

[Keldeo1997]

Look how huge it is! That would be a ton of surge. Luckily this likely won't happen
https://i.imgur.com/uWECXYz.png

That thing could possibly bring 20+ FT of surge of that would happen

[Hurricaneman]

Well that GFS run is basically Dorian 2.0 on the Bahama approach. Things may be interesting with this after all. Looks like lots of model watching ahead.

Let’s just hope the models don’t shift southwest over time, that would put Florida in the zone so this bears watching from Boston to possibly the GOM

[Keldeo1997]

[IcyTundra]

Well that GFS run is basically Dorian 2.0 on the Bahama approach. Things may be interesting with this after all. Looks like lots of model watching ahead.

Let’s just hope the models don’t shift southwest over time, that would put Florida in the zone so this bears watching from Boston to possibly the GOM

Yeah imo everywhere is in play right now including a track out to sea. We just need to see how everything sets up.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think it’s fair to say that is the biggest and strongest run on any storm that I’ve seen the GFS do in a while.


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[Hurricaneman]

The key here is some models go through Hispaniola and if that happens not much will be left but if it goes north of PR and Hispaniola the GFS scenario is very plausible and I’m slightly concerned due to the fact that the GFS breaks down ridges too fast and has a NE bias due to that