ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/Hx6p5C9g/eztsfred.png

This is moving 5 to 10 mph towards Florida. A distance of 192 miles means it has 38 to 19 more hours over water. I say this has plenty of time to intensify.

Too much arid dry air to fight. #toast as a TC ....

[AlphaToOmega]

https://i.postimg.cc/Hx6p5C9g/eztsfred.png

This is moving 5 to 10 mph towards Florida. A distance of 192 miles means it has 38 to 19 more hours over water. I say this has plenty of time to intensify.

Too much arid dry air to fight. #toast as a TC ....

It is way too early to make such a call.

[Jr0d]

I expect a burst of convection tonight near the center...but doubtful it will be sustained throughout the day tomorrow...it also still has to go over the gulf stream.

[AlphaToOmega]

I expect a burst of convection tonight near the center...but doubtful it will be sustained throughout the day tomorrow...it also still has to go over the gulf stream.

A burst of convection near the center is all that is needed to make this a tropical cyclone.

[toad strangler]

https://i.postimg.cc/Hx6p5C9g/eztsfred.png

This is moving 5 to 10 mph towards Florida. A distance of 192 miles means it has 38 to 19 more hours over water. I say this has plenty of time to intensify.

Too much arid dry air to fight. #toast as a TC ....

It is way too early to make such a call.

Nah, not with this one. wxman57 stated earlier today that the peninsula would barley notice 90L floating by, Mark Sudduth posted a hurried update in order to get back to his hotel pool in Orlando, this one is #toast.

[Category5Kaiju]

I guess we wait until DMAX and then we can make a judgement? Idk, maybe I am overthinking things, but I just don't trust these kinds of pop up systems. Sometimes they just struggle and die, sometime they struggle and then get their act together suddenly and unexpectedly.

[AlphaToOmega]

Too much arid dry air to fight. #toast as a TC ....

It is way too early to make such a call.

Nah, not with this one. wxman57 stated earlier today that the peninsula would barley notice 90L floating by, Mark Sudduth posted a hurried update in order to get back to his hotel pool in Orlando, this one is #toast.

Central convection is slowly increasing. Plus, the NHC still has this at a medium chance of development, and the ECMWF has a 90% to 100% chance of development. This is not toast by any means, and a short-lived depression could form.

[CFLHurricane]

This is not toast by any means, and a short-lived depression could form.

Key phrase “short lived depression”, AKA snoozeville.

[NDG]

The ECMWF shows a 70% to 80% chance of Invest 90L forming. Based on that alone, I think the NHC will increase the percentage to 80%, which would be enough to issue Tropical Storm Warnings for Florida and Georgia.

How about down to 50%
BTW, the Euro shows no development with a whopping 10% of its ensembles showing weak development.

[toad strangler]

It is way too early to make such a call.

Nah, not with this one. wxman57 stated earlier today that the peninsula would barley notice 90L floating by, Mark Sudduth posted a hurried update in order to get back to his hotel pool in Orlando, this one is #toast.

Central convection is slowly increasing. Plus, the NHC still has this at a medium chance of development, and the ECMWF has a 90% to 100% chance of development. This is not toast by any means, and a short-lived depression could form.

I see your point about a possible quick depression tag but the end result either way is dry toast no butter as tropical cyclones go. Perhaps some decent storms for parts of the FL peninsula that aren't affiliated with the FL wet season daily sea breeze action.

[Jr0d]

Even if it does not become a classified system, the instability it will bring to Florida will enable more widespread and intense afternoon thunderstorms.

After Elsa, it's been a bit too quiet so this little swirl is getting a lot more attention than it would normally...at least from me.

[Sciencerocks]

[psyclone]

That sat pic is interesting. Sustained naked swirl conditions appear likely somewhere on the space coast or treasure coast sometime tomorrow...assuming this squirt doesn't gather some convection overnight..

[toad strangler]

That sat pic is interesting. Sustained naked swirl conditions appear likely somewhere on the space coast or treasure coast sometime tomorrow...assuming this squirt doesn't gather some convection overnight..

Sustained naked swirl conditions that's a good one ... hahaha

[johngaltfla]

That sat pic is interesting. Sustained naked swirl conditions appear likely somewhere on the space coast or treasure coast sometime tomorrow...assuming this squirt doesn't gather some convection overnight..

"sustained naked swirl conditions"

No doubt, quote of this season thus far.

But it will be interesting to see if the storms can start re-attaching or flaring up around it so it's not nekkid in the morning.

[Jr0d]

Well there is a tiny flare up on the east side of the swirl. Maybe the west side can do something later when it taps into the gulfstream.

If nothing else there will be a slightly elevated chance of tornadoes with tomorrow's afternoon storms across the peninsula and the storms will likely be stronger and more widespread than normal.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located about 160 miles east of
Daytona Beach, Florida, continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity mainly east through south of the center.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain marginally conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression could still
form later today or early Monday while the low moves generally
westward at 5 to 10 mph toward the east coast of Florida. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in Florida should
continue to monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[AlphaToOmega]

Convection was waned somewhat due to diurnal minimum. Once diurnal maximum comes, there will be enough convection to classify this as a tropical cyclone.

[AJC3]

Convection was waned somewhat due to diurnal minimum. Once diurnal maximum comes, there will be enough convection to classify this as a tropical cyclone.

The envirnoment that this weak low is embedded in isn't conducive for significant convection to develop anywhere except the far SE quadrant, and even there it's pretty sporadic. And the diurnal convective maximum occurs over water at night - it's the opposite of what takes place over land, so convection waned simply because it's too dry aloft to sustain deep updrafts over most of the circulation. I fully expect the development probabilties to be lowered some more at 8 AM.

[xironman]

Some of the mid level dry air has washed out.



CAPE estimates